Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 13
- 1women's flyweight MainNatalia SilvavsWang Cong
- 2bantamweightDeiveson FigueiredovsPayton Talbott
- 3lightweightKing GreenvsEsteban Ribovics
- 4Not linkedwelterweightRoberto SoldicvsKhaos Williams
- 5middleweightAteba GautiervsRoman Kopylov
- 6flyweightImanol RodriguezvsAlden Coria
- 7middleweightDamian PinasvsAndrey Pulyaev
- 8Not linkedfeatherweightMarcus McGheevsAnthony Romero
- 9heavyweightJohnny WalkervsMick Parkin
- 11middleweightMarvin VettorivsIsmail Naurdiev
- 12welterweightCourt McGeevsEric Nolan
- 13Not linkedheavyweightAnthony WintvsLucas Armand
- 14Not linkedwelterweightJacobe SmithvsBruce Whitehead
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Rafael Dos Anjos 26.7% · Alexander Hernandez 73.3%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Rafael Dos Anjos 55.0% · Alexander Hernandez 45.0%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
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Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 9
Notable
8 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.
Title-fight record 2–2.
Tale of the tape
| 21-16-0 | UFC record | 11-8-0 |
| KO 4 · Sub 5 | Finishes | KO 6 · Sub 0 |
| -4 | Streak | +1 |
| 41 | Age | 34 |
| 5'8" 173 cm | Height | 5'9" 175 cm |
| 70" 178 cm | Reach | 72" 183 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 1591 | Global Elo | 1591 |
| 1546 | Elo rating | 1539 |
Rafael Dos Anjos — Notable ▼
- 1 successful title defense
- 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
- UFC veteran since 2008
Alexander Hernandez — Notable ▼
- 55% of wins by KO/TKO
- 36% of wins finished in round 1
- UFC veteran since 2018
Rafael Dos Anjos — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1848 landed total · career
- Head 59%
- Body 24%
- Leg 18%
- Distance 68%
- Clinch 17%
- Ground 15%
Alexander Hernandez — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 825 landed total · career
- Head 56%
- Body 31%
- Leg 13%
- Distance 84%
- Clinch 7%
- Ground 8%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Terrance McKinney7.95
- 2Gauge Young7.53
- 3Esteban Ribovics7.46
- 4Billy Quarantillo6.80
- 5Chris Padilla6.67
- 1Marquel Mederos60%
- 2Benoit Saint Denis58%
- 3Quillan Salkilld58%
- 4Justin Gaethje58%
- 5Anshul Jubli57%
- 1Kaue Fernandes1.63
- 2Fares Ziam1.63
- 3Nurullo Aliev1.67
- 4Arman Tsarukyan1.77
- 5Joe Solecki1.90
- 1Matheus Camilo66%
- 2Fares Ziam63%
- 3Ilia Topuria62%
- 4Nasrat Haqparast62%
- 5King Green61%
- 1Quillan Salkilld5.74
- 2Mateusz Gamrot5.08
- 3Benoit Saint Denis4.15
- 4Grant Dawson3.62
- 5Nurullo Aliev3.50
- 1Kaue Fernandes100%
- 2Rafael Fiziev71%
- 3Manuel Torres67%
- 4Esteban Ribovics67%
- 5Rongzhu63%
- 1Trey Ogden100%
- 2Matheus Camilo100%
- 3Ottman Azaitar100%
- 4Anshul Jubli100%
- 5Ilia Topuria95%
- 1Charles Oliveira2.59
- 2Terrance McKinney2.18
- 3Chase Hooper2.05
- 4Benoit Saint Denis1.73
- 5Jim Miller1.72
- 1Grant Dawson9.76
- 2Nurullo Aliev8.80
- 3Benoit Saint Denis7.08
- 4Terrance McKinney6.77
- 5Claudio Puelles6.69
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Rafael Dos Anjos has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1617 vs 1559, 11 quality wins to 4.
Common opponents
2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.
- Oct 3, 2026
- Oct 26, 2024
- Mar 9, 2024
- Aug 12, 2023
- Dec 3, 2022
- Oct 3, 2026
- Apr 25, 2026
- Sep 13, 2025
- Aug 16, 2025
- Mar 15, 2025