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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Talbott

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Figueiredo

Title-fight record 3–2.

Tale of the tape

5-1-0 UFC record 14-7-1
KO 2 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 4 · Sub 4
+2 Streak -2
27 Age 38
5'10" 178 cm Height 5'5" 165 cm
70" 178 cm Reach 68" 173 cm
Switch Stance Orthodox
1609 Global Elo 1638
1571 Elo rating 1592
Payton Talbott — Notable
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 60% of wins by KO or submission
Deiveson Figueiredo — Notable
At a glance
  • 2 successful title defenses
  • 57% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2017

Payton Talbott — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 362 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
72% Head
  • Head 72%
  • Body 20%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
65% Distance
  • Distance 65%
  • Clinch 12%
  • Ground 23%

Deiveson Figueiredo — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 718 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
60% Head
  • Head 60%
  • Body 28%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 17%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

5.87
2.57
div avg 4.32
59%
54%
div avg 50%
3.00
3.43
div avg 3.34
45%
50%
div avg 58%
0.97
1.61
div avg 1.78
50%
35%
div avg 37%
72%
57%
div avg 70%
0.24
1.18
div avg 0.40
3
2
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Payton Talbott
60% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 1
can finish?
Deiveson Figueiredo
finished 57%
4 of 7 losses
Deiveson Figueiredo
57% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 4
can finish?
Payton Talbott
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Deiveson Figueiredo has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1655 vs 1567, 9 quality wins to 1.

Payton Talbott red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1567
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Henry Cejudo
Elo 1650 at fight time
Expected wins
3.0
+1.9 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1469
1650
Notable wins
Deiveson Figueiredo blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1655
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
9
of 14 UFC wins
Toughest win
Joseph Benavidez
Elo 1681 at fight time
Expected wins
11.9
+2.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 22 fights
1546
1655
Corner A recent form
Payton Talbott
Corner B recent form
Deiveson Figueiredo
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Payton Talbott & Deiveson Figueiredo on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.