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Justin Gaethje "The Highlight" C

Active #4 lightweight · age 37 · Orthodox · 5'11" 180 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 70" 178 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight UFC win streak
  • 2 successful title defenses
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 4 of last 5 fights
Elo rating
1670
Global Elo 1710 ±31
Rank
#4
top 3% of division
UFC record
11-5-0
KO 7 · Sub 0 · Dec 4
Streak
+3
Δ90d +28 · Δ1y +49
Last fight
Jun 14, 2026
Win by KO · R4
Career at a glance
Octagon time
3h 22m
Avg fight time
12:38
Title fights
3-1
Bonuses
13
Fights per year
1.8
Since last fight
6d

Honest Elo history

16 fights · tap & drag
Jul 7, 2017 — W vs Michael Johnson Δ+40Dec 2, 2017 — L vs Eddie Alvarez Δ-29Apr 14, 2018 — L vs Dustin Poirier Δ-19Aug 25, 2018 — W vs James Vick Δ+50Mar 30, 2019 — W vs Edson Barboza Δ+42Sep 14, 2019 — W vs Donald Cerrone Δ+24May 9, 2020 — W vs Tony Ferguson Δ+32Oct 24, 2020 — L vs Khabib Nurmagomedov Δ-16Nov 6, 2021 — W vs Michael Chandler Δ+11May 7, 2022 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-13Mar 18, 2023 — W vs Rafael Fiziev Δ+17Jul 29, 2023 — W vs Dustin Poirier Δ+23Apr 13, 2024 — L vs Max Holloway Δ-14Mar 8, 2025 — W vs Rafael Fiziev Δ+14Jan 24, 2026 — W vs Paddy Pimblett Δ+21Jun 14, 2026 — W vs Ilia Topuria Δ+28 1400145015001550160016501700 2019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":303.9,"elo":1500,"date":"2017-07-07","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":1,"x":122.6,"y":335.1,"elo":1470,"date":"2017-12-02","opp":"Eddie Alvarez","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":2,"x":152,"y":355.2,"elo":1451,"date":"2018-04-14","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":3,"x":181.3,"y":302.4,"elo":1501,"date":"2018-08-25","opp":"James Vick","result":"W","delta":50},{"i":4,"x":229.2,"y":257.1,"elo":1543,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"W","delta":42},{"i":5,"x":266.3,"y":231.7,"elo":1567,"date":"2019-09-14","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":6,"x":318.8,"y":197.5,"elo":1599,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":7,"x":355.8,"y":214.3,"elo":1584,"date":"2020-10-24","opp":"Khabib Nurmagomedov","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":8,"x":439.2,"y":202.1,"elo":1595,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Michael Chandler","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":9,"x":479.3,"y":216.2,"elo":1582,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":10,"x":548.8,"y":198.4,"elo":1598,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Rafael Fiziev","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":11,"x":578.2,"y":173.8,"elo":1621,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":12,"x":635.3,"y":189.3,"elo":1607,"date":"2024-04-13","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":13,"x":707.9,"y":174.4,"elo":1621,"date":"2025-03-08","opp":"Rafael Fiziev","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":778.9,"y":152.1,"elo":1642,"date":"2026-01-24","opp":"Paddy Pimblett","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":15,"x":810,"y":122.5,"elo":1670,"date":"2026-06-14","opp":"Ilia Topuria","result":"W","delta":28}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 14, 2026 Ilia Topuria W +28
Jan 24, 2026 Paddy Pimblett W +21
Mar 8, 2025 Rafael Fiziev W +14
Apr 13, 2024 Max Holloway L -14
Jul 29, 2023 Dustin Poirier W +23

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
64%
7 / 11
Finish rate
KO
7
64% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
4
36% of wins
KO: 7 (64%) 7 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 4 (36%) 4
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
3 43%
R2
2 29%
R3
R4
1 14%
R5
1 14%

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1271 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
66% Head
  • Head 66%
  • Body 11%
  • Leg 23%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
84% Distance
  • Distance 84%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 3%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
5 of 5
3 KO/TKO 2 Sub 0 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1700
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
9
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Ilia Topuria
Elo 1754 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
6.4
+4.6 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 16 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1575
1754
Notable wins
Ilia Topuria 1754 Tony Ferguson 1751 Dustin Poirier 1728 Donald Cerrone 1690 James Vick 1681 Paddy Pimblett 1676

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Grant Dawson
#6 · Elo 1642
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Justin Gaethje on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.