HonestElo
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Justin Gaethje IC

Active #5 lightweight · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1682 ±36
LCB 1636
Rank
#5
top 4% of division
UFC record
10-5-0
KO 6 · Sub 0 · Dec 4
Streak
+2
Δ90d +21 · Δ1y +21
Last fight
Jan 24, 2026
W by Decision

Elo history

15 fights · tap & drag
Jul 7, 2017 — W vs Michael Johnson Δ+40Dec 2, 2017 — L vs Eddie Alvarez Δ-29Apr 14, 2018 — L vs Dustin Poirier Δ-19Aug 25, 2018 — W vs James Vick Δ+50Mar 30, 2019 — W vs Edson Barboza Δ+42Sep 14, 2019 — W vs Donald Cerrone Δ+24May 9, 2020 — W vs Tony Ferguson Δ+32Oct 24, 2020 — L vs Khabib Nurmagomedov Δ-16Nov 6, 2021 — W vs Michael Chandler Δ+11May 7, 2022 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-13Mar 18, 2023 — W vs Rafael Fiziev Δ+17Jul 29, 2023 — W vs Dustin Poirier Δ+23Apr 13, 2024 — L vs Max Holloway Δ-14Mar 8, 2025 — W vs Rafael Fiziev Δ+14Jan 24, 2026 — W vs Paddy Pimblett Δ+21 14521520158716551722 2019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":166.9,"elo":1540,"date":"2017-07-07","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":1,"x":64.4,"y":189.9,"elo":1511,"date":"2017-12-02","opp":"Eddie Alvarez","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":2,"x":100.7,"y":204.6,"elo":1492,"date":"2018-04-14","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":3,"x":136.9,"y":165.8,"elo":1542,"date":"2018-08-25","opp":"James Vick","result":"W","delta":50},{"i":4,"x":196.1,"y":132.6,"elo":1584,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"W","delta":42},{"i":5,"x":242,"y":113.8,"elo":1608,"date":"2019-09-14","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":6,"x":306.9,"y":88.8,"elo":1640,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":7,"x":352.7,"y":101.1,"elo":1624,"date":"2020-10-24","opp":"Khabib Nurmagomedov","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":8,"x":455.9,"y":92.1,"elo":1636,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Michael Chandler","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":9,"x":505.5,"y":102.5,"elo":1622,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":10,"x":591.5,"y":89.4,"elo":1639,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Rafael Fiziev","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":11,"x":627.7,"y":71.4,"elo":1662,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":12,"x":698.4,"y":82.7,"elo":1648,"date":"2024-04-13","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":13,"x":788.2,"y":71.7,"elo":1662,"date":"2025-03-08","opp":"Rafael Fiziev","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":876,"y":55.4,"elo":1682,"date":"2026-01-24","opp":"Paddy Pimblett","result":"W","delta":21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 24, 2026 Paddy Pimblett W +21
Mar 8, 2025 Rafael Fiziev W +14
Apr 13, 2024 Max Holloway L -14
Jul 29, 2023 Dustin Poirier W +23
Mar 18, 2023 Rafael Fiziev W +17

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.76 avg 4.00
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
59% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
6.26 avg 3.29
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.29 avg 1.65
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
40% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
74% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
6 / 10
Finish rate
KO
6
60% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
4
40% of wins
KO: 6 (60%) 6 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 4 (40%) 4
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
3 50%
R2
2 33%
R3
R4
R5
1 17%

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1677
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.0
actual +4 vs expected