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Austin Hubbard "Thud"

Active #85 lightweight · age 34 · Orthodox · 5'10" 178 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 71" 180 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Elo rating
1395
Global Elo 1437 ±33
Rank
#85
top 95% of division
UFC record
4-8-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -15
Last fight
Aug 23, 2025
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 37m
Avg fight time
13:02
Fights per year
1.9
Since last fight
10mo

Honest Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
May 18, 2019 — L vs Davi Ramos Δ-22Sep 14, 2019 — W vs Kyle Prepolec Δ+29Mar 7, 2020 — L vs Mark Madsen Δ-27Jun 20, 2020 — W vs Max Rohskopf Δ+31Aug 22, 2020 — L vs Joe Solecki Δ-31Apr 17, 2021 — W vs Dakota Bush Δ+17Aug 21, 2021 — L vs Vinc Pichel Δ-11Aug 19, 2023 — L vs Kurt Holobaugh Δ-23Apr 27, 2024 — W vs Michal Figlak Δ+16Oct 5, 2024 — L vs Alexander Hernandez Δ-14Mar 29, 2025 — L vs Marquel Mederos Δ-13Aug 23, 2025 — L vs Rongzhu Δ-15 1350137514001425145014751500 202020212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":227,"elo":1436,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Davi Ramos","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":1,"x":127.4,"y":165.9,"elo":1464,"date":"2019-09-14","opp":"Kyle Prepolec","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":182.5,"y":223.3,"elo":1438,"date":"2020-03-07","opp":"Mark Madsen","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":3,"x":215.5,"y":158.3,"elo":1468,"date":"2020-06-20","opp":"Max Rohskopf","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":235.3,"y":223.8,"elo":1437,"date":"2020-08-22","opp":"Joe Solecki","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":5,"x":310.2,"y":187.7,"elo":1454,"date":"2021-04-17","opp":"Dakota Bush","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":349.8,"y":211.4,"elo":1443,"date":"2021-08-21","opp":"Vinc Pichel","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":7,"x":578.8,"y":260.5,"elo":1420,"date":"2023-08-19","opp":"Kurt Holobaugh","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":8,"x":658.1,"y":225.5,"elo":1437,"date":"2024-04-27","opp":"Michal Figlak","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":708.7,"y":255.5,"elo":1422,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Alexander Hernandez","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":763.8,"y":283.5,"elo":1409,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Marquel Mederos","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":11,"x":810,"y":314.6,"elo":1395,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Rongzhu","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 23, 2025 Rongzhu L -15
Mar 29, 2025 Marquel Mederos L -13
Oct 5, 2024 Alexander Hernandez L -14
Apr 27, 2024 Michal Figlak W +16
Aug 19, 2023 Kurt Holobaugh L -23

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 4
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
75% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 622 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
52% Head
  • Head 52%
  • Body 28%
  • Leg 19%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 5%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
25%
of losses by finish
2 of 8
0 KO/TKO 2 Sub 6 Dec Never been KO'd

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1480
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Max Rohskopf
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
5.5
−1.5 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 12 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1585
1482

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Austin Hubbard on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.