HonestElo
← lightweight

Austin Hubbard

Active #98 lightweight · Orthodox · 178 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1437 ±33
LCB 1394
Rank
#98
top 97% of division
UFC record
4-8-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -28
Last fight
Aug 23, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
May 18, 2019 — L vs Davi Ramos Δ-22Sep 14, 2019 — W vs Kyle Prepolec Δ+29Mar 7, 2020 — L vs Mark Madsen Δ-27Jun 20, 2020 — W vs Max Rohskopf Δ+31Aug 22, 2020 — L vs Joe Solecki Δ-31Apr 17, 2021 — W vs Dakota Bush Δ+17Aug 21, 2021 — L vs Vinc Pichel Δ-11Aug 19, 2023 — L vs Kurt Holobaugh Δ-23Apr 27, 2024 — W vs Michal Figlak Δ+16Oct 5, 2024 — L vs Alexander Hernandez Δ-14Mar 29, 2025 — L vs Marquel Mederos Δ-13Aug 23, 2025 — L vs Rongzhu Δ-15 13971435147415121550 202020212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":123.8,"elo":1478,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Davi Ramos","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":1,"x":68.3,"y":84.3,"elo":1507,"date":"2019-09-14","opp":"Kyle Prepolec","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":133.4,"y":121.5,"elo":1480,"date":"2020-03-07","opp":"Mark Madsen","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":3,"x":172.5,"y":79.3,"elo":1510,"date":"2020-06-20","opp":"Max Rohskopf","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":196,"y":121.8,"elo":1480,"date":"2020-08-22","opp":"Joe Solecki","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":5,"x":284.6,"y":98.4,"elo":1497,"date":"2021-04-17","opp":"Dakota Bush","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":331.4,"y":113.8,"elo":1485,"date":"2021-08-21","opp":"Vinc Pichel","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":7,"x":602.4,"y":145.6,"elo":1462,"date":"2023-08-19","opp":"Kurt Holobaugh","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":8,"x":696.2,"y":122.9,"elo":1479,"date":"2024-04-27","opp":"Michal Figlak","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":756.1,"y":142.4,"elo":1465,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Alexander Hernandez","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":821.3,"y":160.5,"elo":1452,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Marquel Mederos","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":180.7,"elo":1437,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Rongzhu","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 23, 2025 Rongzhu L -15
Mar 29, 2025 Marquel Mederos L -13
Oct 5, 2024 Alexander Hernandez L -14
Apr 27, 2024 Michal Figlak W +16
Aug 19, 2023 Kurt Holobaugh L -23

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.89 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
42% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.01 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.59 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
29% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
68% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.09 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 4
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
75% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1480
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.5
actual -2 vs expected