HonestElo
← lightweight

Ilia Topuria C

Active #1 lightweight · Orthodox · 170 cm · reach 175 cm
Elo rating
1754 ±20
LCB 1728
Rank
#1
top 1% of division
UFC record
9-0-0
KO 6 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
+9
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +23
Last fight
Jun 28, 2025
W by KO

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Oct 10, 2020 — W vs Youssef Zalal Δ+35Dec 5, 2020 — W vs Damon Jackson Δ+31Jul 10, 2021 — W vs Ryan Hall Δ+40Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Jai Herbert Δ+23Dec 10, 2022 — W vs Bryce Mitchell Δ+35Jun 24, 2023 — W vs Josh Emmett Δ+15Feb 17, 2024 — W vs Alexander Volkanovski Δ+28Oct 26, 2024 — W vs Max Holloway Δ+26Jun 28, 2025 — W vs Charles Oliveira Δ+23 14951570164517201794 20212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":207.6,"elo":1535,"date":"2020-10-10","opp":"Youssef Zalal","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":1,"x":51.7,"y":186,"elo":1566,"date":"2020-12-05","opp":"Damon Jackson","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":159.1,"y":158,"elo":1605,"date":"2021-07-10","opp":"Ryan Hall","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":3,"x":283.8,"y":141.9,"elo":1628,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Jai Herbert","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":4,"x":415.4,"y":117.2,"elo":1663,"date":"2022-12-10","opp":"Bryce Mitchell","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":5,"x":512.3,"y":106.7,"elo":1678,"date":"2023-06-24","opp":"Josh Emmett","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":6,"x":630.1,"y":87,"elo":1705,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Alexander Volkanovski","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":7,"x":754.8,"y":68.6,"elo":1731,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":52.4,"elo":1754,"date":"2025-06-28","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"W","delta":23}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 28, 2025 Charles Oliveira W +23
Oct 26, 2024 Max Holloway W +26
Feb 17, 2024 Alexander Volkanovski W +28
Jun 24, 2023 Josh Emmett W +15
Dec 10, 2022 Bryce Mitchell W +35

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.05 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.23 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
64% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.65 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
61% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
94% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.90 avg 0.51
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
78%
7 / 9
Finish rate
KO
6
67% of wins
SUB
1
11% of wins
DEC
2
22% of wins
KO: 6 (67%) 6 Sub: 1 (11%) 1 Dec: 2 (22%) 2
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
3 43%
R2
3 43%
R3
1 14%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1703
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.3
actual +5 vs expected