HonestElo
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Paul Felder

Inactive · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1579 ±35
LCB 1533
Rank
—
—
UFC record
9-6-0
KO 4 · Sub 1 · Dec 4
Streak
-2
Δ90d -13 · Δ1y -13
Last fight
Nov 14, 2020
L by Decision

Elo history

15 fights · tap & drag
Oct 4, 2014 — W vs Jason Saggo Δ+32Jan 3, 2015 — W vs Danny Castillo Δ+38Jul 25, 2015 — L vs Edson Barboza Δ-25Sep 5, 2015 — L vs Ross Pearson Δ-26Jan 17, 2016 — W vs Daron Cruickshank Δ+33May 29, 2016 — W vs Joshua Burkman Δ+14Sep 24, 2016 — L vs Francisco Trinaldo Δ-13Feb 19, 2017 — W vs Alex Ricci Δ+14Jul 16, 2017 — W vs Stevie Ray Δ+20Dec 2, 2017 — W vs Charles Oliveira Δ+18Jul 7, 2018 — L vs Mike Perry Δ-18Feb 17, 2019 — W vs James Vick Δ+19Sep 7, 2019 — W vs Edson Barboza Δ+17Feb 22, 2020 — L vs Dan Hooker Δ-16Nov 14, 2020 — L vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ-14 14781524157016161662 201520162017201820192020 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":174.2,"elo":1532,"date":"2014-10-04","opp":"Jason Saggo","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":1,"x":58.7,"y":130.6,"elo":1569,"date":"2015-01-03","opp":"Danny Castillo","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":2,"x":136.2,"y":159.5,"elo":1544,"date":"2015-07-25","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":3,"x":152.2,"y":189.9,"elo":1518,"date":"2015-09-05","opp":"Ross Pearson","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":4,"x":203.3,"y":152.3,"elo":1551,"date":"2016-01-17","opp":"Daron Cruickshank","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":5,"x":254.1,"y":135.9,"elo":1565,"date":"2016-05-29","opp":"Joshua Burkman","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":6,"x":299.1,"y":151.5,"elo":1551,"date":"2016-09-24","opp":"Francisco Trinaldo","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":7,"x":355.6,"y":135,"elo":1566,"date":"2017-02-19","opp":"Alex Ricci","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":411.7,"y":112,"elo":1586,"date":"2017-07-16","opp":"Stevie Ray","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":9,"x":464.7,"y":90.9,"elo":1604,"date":"2017-12-02","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":10,"x":547.5,"y":111.3,"elo":1586,"date":"2018-07-07","opp":"Mike Perry","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":11,"x":633.3,"y":89.2,"elo":1605,"date":"2019-02-17","opp":"James Vick","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":12,"x":710.4,"y":70.1,"elo":1622,"date":"2019-09-07","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":13,"x":774.5,"y":88.8,"elo":1606,"date":"2020-02-22","opp":"Dan Hooker","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":14,"x":876,"y":105.4,"elo":1591,"date":"2020-11-14","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 14, 2020 Rafael Dos Anjos L -14
Feb 22, 2020 Dan Hooker L -16
Sep 7, 2019 Edson Barboza W +17
Feb 17, 2019 James Vick W +19
Jul 7, 2018 Mike Perry L -18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.55 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
45% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.30 avg 3.34
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.28 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
29% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
65% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.21 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
56%
5 / 9
Finish rate
KO
4
44% of wins
SUB
1
11% of wins
DEC
4
44% of wins
KO: 4 (44%) 4 Sub: 1 (11%) 1 Dec: 4 (44%) 4
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
2 40%
R2
2 40%
R3
1 20%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1619
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.2
actual +2 vs expected