HonestElo
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Marquel Mederos

Active #24 lightweight
Elo rating
1575 ±20
LCB 1549
Rank
#24
top 23% of division
UFC record
3-0-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +48
Last fight
Jun 7, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

3 fights · tap & drag
Feb 3, 2024 — W vs Landon Quinones Δ+27Mar 29, 2025 — W vs Austin Hubbard Δ+24Jun 7, 2025 — W vs Mark Choinski Δ+25 14871519155115831615 2025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":170,"elo":1527,"date":"2024-02-03","opp":"Landon Quinones","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":1,"x":754.3,"y":130.8,"elo":1550,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Austin Hubbard","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":2,"x":876,"y":90,"elo":1575,"date":"2025-06-07","opp":"Mark Choinski","result":"W","delta":25}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 7, 2025 Mark Choinski W +25
Mar 29, 2025 Austin Hubbard W +24
Feb 3, 2024 Landon Quinones W +27

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.76 avg 4.03
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
56% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.09 avg 3.40
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
58% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 1.66
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
0% avg 40%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
78% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1480
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
1.7
actual +1 vs expected