HonestElo
← welterweight

Michael Chiesa

Active #13 welterweight · Southpaw · 185 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1660 ±33
LCB 1617
Rank
#13
top 13% of division
UFC record
15-7-0
KO 0 · Sub 9 · Dec 6
Streak
+4
Δ90d +11 · Δ1y +21
Last fight
Mar 28, 2026
W by Submission

Elo history

22 fights · tap & drag
Jun 1, 2012 — W vs Al Iaquinta Δ+41Feb 23, 2013 — W vs Anton Kuivanen Δ+29Jul 27, 2013 — L vs Jorge Masvidal Δ-37Nov 6, 2013 — W vs Colton Smith Δ+30May 24, 2014 — W vs Francisco Trinaldo Δ+27Sep 5, 2014 — L vs Joe Lauzon Δ-16Apr 4, 2015 — W vs Mitch Clarke Δ+13Dec 10, 2015 — W vs Jim Miller Δ+21Apr 16, 2016 — W vs Beneil Dariush Δ+19Jun 25, 2017 — L vs Kevin Lee Δ-18Jul 7, 2018 — L vs Anthony Pettis Δ-19Dec 29, 2018 — W vs Carlos Condit Δ+17Jul 6, 2019 — W vs Diego Sanchez Δ+16Jan 25, 2020 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+18Jan 20, 2021 — W vs Neil Magny Δ+17Aug 7, 2021 — L vs Vicente Luque Δ-17Nov 20, 2021 — L vs Sean Brady Δ-17Jul 29, 2023 — L vs Kevin Holland Δ-20Aug 3, 2024 — W vs Tony Ferguson Δ+18Dec 7, 2024 — W vs Max Griffin Δ+14Jun 14, 2025 — W vs Court McGee Δ+10Mar 28, 2026 — W vs Niko Price Δ+11 14941545159716481700 2015201820212024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":187.2,"elo":1541,"date":"2012-06-01","opp":"Al Iaquinta","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":69.1,"y":157.1,"elo":1571,"date":"2013-02-23","opp":"Anton Kuivanen","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":95.1,"y":194.8,"elo":1534,"date":"2013-07-27","opp":"Jorge Masvidal","result":"L","delta":-37},{"i":3,"x":112.3,"y":163.8,"elo":1564,"date":"2013-11-06","opp":"Colton Smith","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":4,"x":145.9,"y":135.9,"elo":1591,"date":"2014-05-24","opp":"Francisco Trinaldo","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":5,"x":163.4,"y":152.7,"elo":1575,"date":"2014-09-05","opp":"Joe Lauzon","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":6,"x":199,"y":139.1,"elo":1588,"date":"2015-04-04","opp":"Mitch Clarke","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":7,"x":241.2,"y":117.1,"elo":1610,"date":"2015-12-10","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":8,"x":262.8,"y":97.2,"elo":1629,"date":"2016-04-16","opp":"Beneil Dariush","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":9,"x":336.2,"y":115.6,"elo":1611,"date":"2017-06-25","opp":"Kevin Lee","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":10,"x":399.9,"y":134.9,"elo":1592,"date":"2018-07-07","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":11,"x":429.4,"y":117.6,"elo":1609,"date":"2018-12-29","opp":"Carlos Condit","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":12,"x":461.3,"y":101.2,"elo":1625,"date":"2019-07-06","opp":"Diego Sanchez","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":13,"x":495.6,"y":83.1,"elo":1643,"date":"2020-01-25","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":14,"x":556.5,"y":65.4,"elo":1660,"date":"2021-01-20","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":15,"x":590.1,"y":82.6,"elo":1643,"date":"2021-08-07","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":16,"x":607.8,"y":99.9,"elo":1626,"date":"2021-11-20","opp":"Sean Brady","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":17,"x":711.8,"y":120.1,"elo":1607,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"Kevin Holland","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":18,"x":774.4,"y":101.6,"elo":1625,"date":"2024-08-03","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":19,"x":795.7,"y":86.8,"elo":1639,"date":"2024-12-07","opp":"Max Griffin","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":20,"x":827.6,"y":76.6,"elo":1649,"date":"2025-06-14","opp":"Court McGee","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":21,"x":876,"y":65.2,"elo":1660,"date":"2026-03-28","opp":"Niko Price","result":"W","delta":11}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 28, 2026 Niko Price W +11
Jun 14, 2025 Court McGee W +10
Dec 7, 2024 Max Griffin W +14
Aug 3, 2024 Tony Ferguson W +18
Jul 29, 2023 Kevin Holland L -20

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.70 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
41% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.46 avg 2.88
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
58% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.63 avg 1.77
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
48% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
66% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.88 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
9 / 15
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
9
60% of wins
DEC
6
40% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 9 (60%) 9 Dec: 6 (40%) 6
Finishes by round
9 total
R1
3 33%
R2
5 56%
R3
1 11%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1550
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
11.7
actual +3 vs expected