HonestElo
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Grant Dawson

Active #6 lightweight · Switch · 178 cm · reach 183 cm
Elo rating
1676 ±33
LCB 1633
Rank
#6
top 5% of division
UFC record
11-2-1
KO 2 · Sub 4 · Dec 5
Streak
-1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -24
Last fight
Dec 6, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
Mar 9, 2019 — W vs Julian Erosa Δ+26May 18, 2019 — W vs Michael Trizano Δ+37Feb 29, 2020 — W vs Darrick Minner Δ+27Jul 18, 2020 — W vs Nad Narimani Δ+23Mar 20, 2021 — W vs Leonardo Santos Δ+38Oct 23, 2021 — D vs Ricky Glenn Δ-5Apr 30, 2022 — W vs Jared Gordon Δ+14Nov 5, 2022 — W vs Mark Madsen Δ+16Jul 1, 2023 — W vs Damir Ismagulov Δ+13Oct 7, 2023 — L vs King Green Δ-24Jun 1, 2024 — W vs Joe Solecki Δ+12Oct 12, 2024 — W vs Rafa Garcia Δ+11Jan 18, 2025 — W vs Diego Ferreira Δ+13Dec 6, 2025 — L vs Manuel Torres Δ-24 14861549161316771740 202020212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":202.7,"elo":1526,"date":"2019-03-09","opp":"Julian Erosa","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":1,"x":48.2,"y":172.1,"elo":1562,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Michael Trizano","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":147.4,"y":149.4,"elo":1590,"date":"2020-02-29","opp":"Darrick Minner","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":3,"x":195.9,"y":130.4,"elo":1612,"date":"2020-07-18","opp":"Nad Narimani","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":4,"x":280.6,"y":98.6,"elo":1651,"date":"2021-03-20","opp":"Leonardo Santos","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":5,"x":355.6,"y":102.4,"elo":1646,"date":"2021-10-23","opp":"Ricky Glenn","result":"D","delta":-5},{"i":6,"x":421,"y":90.9,"elo":1660,"date":"2022-04-30","opp":"Jared Gordon","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":7,"x":486.3,"y":77.5,"elo":1676,"date":"2022-11-05","opp":"Mark Madsen","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":568.6,"y":66.8,"elo":1689,"date":"2023-07-01","opp":"Damir Ismagulov","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":9,"x":602.5,"y":86.8,"elo":1665,"date":"2023-10-07","opp":"King Green","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":10,"x":684.8,"y":76.6,"elo":1677,"date":"2024-06-01","opp":"Joe Solecki","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":11,"x":730.8,"y":67.7,"elo":1688,"date":"2024-10-12","opp":"Rafa Garcia","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":12,"x":764.7,"y":57.3,"elo":1700,"date":"2025-01-18","opp":"Diego Ferreira","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":77.3,"elo":1676,"date":"2025-12-06","opp":"Manuel Torres","result":"L","delta":-24}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 6, 2025 Manuel Torres L -24
Jan 18, 2025 Diego Ferreira W +13
Oct 12, 2024 Rafa Garcia W +11
Jun 1, 2024 Joe Solecki W +12
Oct 7, 2023 King Green L -24

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.82 avg 4.10
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
53% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.95 avg 3.44
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
44% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.43 avg 1.54
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
39% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
60% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.86 avg 0.51
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
9 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
55%
6 / 11
Finish rate
KO
2
18% of wins
SUB
4
36% of wins
DEC
5
45% of wins
KO: 2 (18%) 2 Sub: 4 (36%) 4 Dec: 5 (45%) 5
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
R2
3 50%
R3
3 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1577
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.3
actual +3 vs expected