HonestElo
← lightweight

Chris Padilla "Taco"

Active #14 lightweight · age 30 · Orthodox · 5'9" 175 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
At a glance
  • 75% of wins by KO or submission
Elo rating
1579
Global Elo 1605 ±20
Rank
#14
top 15% of division
UFC record
4-0-1
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 1
Streak
0
Δ90d -3 · Δ1y +24
Last fight
Apr 11, 2026
Draw by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
53m
Avg fight time
10:39
Fights per year
2.6
Since last fight
2mo

Honest Elo history

5 fights · tap & drag
Apr 27, 2024 — W vs James Llontop Δ+33Sep 7, 2024 — W vs Rongzhu Δ+24Mar 22, 2025 — W vs Jai Herbert Δ+24Nov 8, 2025 — W vs Ismael Bonfim Δ+27Apr 11, 2026 — D vs Marquel Mederos Δ-3 1475150015251550157516001625 20252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":341.5,"elo":1507,"date":"2024-04-27","opp":"James Llontop","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":224.1,"y":290.5,"elo":1531,"date":"2024-09-07","opp":"Rongzhu","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":2,"x":421.8,"y":239.3,"elo":1555,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Jai Herbert","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":3,"x":654.7,"y":182.2,"elo":1582,"date":"2025-11-08","opp":"Ismael Bonfim","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":4,"x":810,"y":187.9,"elo":1579,"date":"2026-04-11","opp":"Marquel Mederos","result":"D","delta":-3}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 11, 2026 Marquel Mederos D -3
Nov 8, 2025 Ismael Bonfim W +27
Mar 22, 2025 Jai Herbert W +24
Sep 7, 2024 Rongzhu W +24
Apr 27, 2024 James Llontop W +33

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
1
25% of wins
KO: 1 (33%) 1 Sub: 1 (33%) 1 Dec: 1 (33%) 1
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
1 33%
R2
2 67%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 330 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
50% Head
  • Head 50%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 33%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 12%
  • Ground 5%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
Unbeaten in the UFC
4-0 — no losses on record

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1512
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Ismael Bonfim
Elo 1515 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
2.8
+1.2 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 5 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1575

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Chris Padilla on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.