HonestElo
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Chris Padilla

Active #13 lightweight
Elo rating
1608 ±20
LCB 1582
Rank
#13
top 12% of division
UFC record
4-0-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 1
Streak
+4
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +27
Last fight
Nov 8, 2025
W by KO

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Apr 27, 2024 — W vs James Llontop Δ+33Sep 7, 2024 — W vs Rongzhu Δ+24Mar 22, 2025 — W vs Jai Herbert Δ+24Nov 8, 2025 — W vs Ismael Bonfim Δ+27 14931532157016091648 2025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":181.2,"elo":1533,"date":"2024-04-27","opp":"James Llontop","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":226.3,"y":148.4,"elo":1557,"date":"2024-09-07","opp":"Rongzhu","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":2,"x":524.5,"y":115.5,"elo":1581,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Jai Herbert","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":78.8,"elo":1608,"date":"2025-11-08","opp":"Ismael Bonfim","result":"W","delta":27}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 8, 2025 Ismael Bonfim W +27
Mar 22, 2025 Jai Herbert W +24
Sep 7, 2024 Rongzhu W +24
Apr 27, 2024 James Llontop W +33

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.58 avg 4.04
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
54% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.70 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
56% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.13 avg 1.62
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
30% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
75% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.38 avg 0.53
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
1
25% of wins
KO: 1 (33%) 1 Sub: 1 (33%) 1 Dec: 1 (33%) 1
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
1 33%
R2
2 67%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1496
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.3
actual +2 vs expected