HonestElo
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Kaue Fernandes

Active #36 lightweight
Elo rating
1563 ±35
LCB 1518
Rank
#36
top 35% of division
UFC record
3-1-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +30
Last fight
Sep 6, 2025
W by KO

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Nov 4, 2023 — L vs Marc Diakiese Δ-29Aug 3, 2024 — W vs Mohammad Yahya Δ+33Mar 22, 2025 — W vs Guram Kutateladze Δ+29Sep 6, 2025 — W vs Harry Hardwick Δ+30 14311474151715601603 20242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":186.7,"elo":1471,"date":"2023-11-04","opp":"Marc Diakiese","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":370.1,"y":146,"elo":1504,"date":"2024-08-03","opp":"Mohammad Yahya","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":663,"y":110.2,"elo":1533,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Guram Kutateladze","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":73.3,"elo":1563,"date":"2025-09-06","opp":"Harry Hardwick","result":"W","delta":30}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 6, 2025 Harry Hardwick W +30
Mar 22, 2025 Guram Kutateladze W +29
Aug 3, 2024 Mohammad Yahya W +33
Nov 4, 2023 Marc Diakiese L -29

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.08 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
55% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.35 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
63% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.13 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
100% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
77% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
2 / 3
Finish rate
KO
2
67% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
33% of wins
KO: 2 (67%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (33%) 1
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1494
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.0
actual +1 vs expected