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Clay Guida "The Carpenter"

Active #61 lightweight · age 44 · Orthodox · 5'7" 170 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 70" 178 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Performance of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2006
Elo rating
1457
Global Elo 1507 ±39
Rank
#61
top 68% of division
UFC record
18-19-0
KO 2 · Sub 5 · Dec 11
Streak
-3
Δ90d +3 · Δ1y +3
Last fight
Dec 7, 2024
Loss by Submission · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
7h 3m
Avg fight time
11:26
Bonuses
16
Fights per year
2.0
Ground control
2h 36m
Since last fight
1y 7mo

Honest Elo history

37 fights · tap & drag
Oct 14, 2006 — W vs Justin James Δ+33Jan 25, 2007 — L vs Din Thomas Δ-28Jun 16, 2007 — L vs Tyson Griffin Δ-29Aug 25, 2007 — W vs Marcus Aurelio Δ+31Dec 8, 2007 — L vs Roger Huerta Δ-22Apr 2, 2008 — W vs Samy Schiavo Δ+19Sep 17, 2008 — W vs Mac Danzig Δ+19Jan 31, 2009 — W vs Nate Diaz Δ+21Jun 20, 2009 — L vs Diego Sanchez Δ-11Dec 12, 2009 — L vs Kenny Florian Δ-14Mar 21, 2010 — W vs Shannon Gugerty Δ+18Aug 7, 2010 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+19Jan 1, 2011 — W vs Takanori Gomi Δ+17Jun 4, 2011 — W vs Anthony Pettis Δ+13Nov 12, 2011 — L vs Benson Henderson Δ-17Jun 22, 2012 — L vs Gray Maynard Δ-12Jan 26, 2013 — W vs Hatsu Hioki Δ+15Aug 31, 2013 — L vs Chad Mendes Δ-17Apr 11, 2014 — W vs Tatsuya Kawajiri Δ+15Jul 26, 2014 — L vs Dennis Bermudez Δ-16Apr 4, 2015 — W vs Robert Peralta Δ+17Nov 7, 2015 — L vs Thiago Tavares Δ-19Jun 4, 2016 — L vs Brian Ortega Δ-17Jun 25, 2017 — W vs Erik Koch Δ+16Nov 11, 2017 — W vs Joe Lauzon Δ+20Jun 9, 2018 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-19May 11, 2019 — W vs BJ Penn Δ+16Aug 3, 2019 — L vs Jim Miller Δ-17Jun 20, 2020 — L vs King Green Δ-16Feb 6, 2021 — W vs Michael Johnson Δ+15Aug 21, 2021 — L vs Mark Madsen Δ-16Dec 4, 2021 — W vs Leonardo Santos Δ+24Apr 23, 2022 — L vs Claudio Puelles Δ-17Dec 3, 2022 — W vs Scott Holtzman Δ+16Apr 15, 2023 — L vs Rafa Garcia Δ-18Dec 2, 2023 — L vs Joaquim Silva Δ-16Dec 7, 2024 — L vs Chase Hooper Δ-16 14001425145014751500152515501575 200920122015201820212024 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":254,"elo":1485,"date":"2006-10-14","opp":"Justin James","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":101.2,"y":306.1,"elo":1457,"date":"2007-01-25","opp":"Din Thomas","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":116.6,"y":359.3,"elo":1428,"date":"2007-06-16","opp":"Tyson Griffin","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":124.2,"y":302.8,"elo":1459,"date":"2007-08-25","opp":"Marcus Aurelio","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":135.6,"y":342.5,"elo":1437,"date":"2007-12-08","opp":"Roger Huerta","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":5,"x":148.2,"y":307.4,"elo":1456,"date":"2008-04-02","opp":"Samy Schiavo","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":166.5,"y":272.7,"elo":1475,"date":"2008-09-17","opp":"Mac Danzig","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":7,"x":181.2,"y":233.5,"elo":1496,"date":"2009-01-31","opp":"Nate Diaz","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":8,"x":196.4,"y":253.3,"elo":1486,"date":"2009-06-20","opp":"Diego Sanchez","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":9,"x":215.4,"y":279.8,"elo":1471,"date":"2009-12-12","opp":"Kenny Florian","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":226.2,"y":247.8,"elo":1489,"date":"2010-03-21","opp":"Shannon Gugerty","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":241.3,"y":212.9,"elo":1508,"date":"2010-08-07","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":12,"x":257.3,"y":182.3,"elo":1524,"date":"2011-01-01","opp":"Takanori Gomi","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":13,"x":274,"y":159.1,"elo":1537,"date":"2011-06-04","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":14,"x":291.5,"y":189.5,"elo":1521,"date":"2011-11-12","opp":"Benson Henderson","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":15,"x":315.7,"y":211.2,"elo":1509,"date":"2012-06-22","opp":"Gray Maynard","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":16,"x":339.4,"y":184.4,"elo":1523,"date":"2013-01-26","opp":"Hatsu Hioki","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":17,"x":362.9,"y":215.4,"elo":1506,"date":"2013-08-31","opp":"Chad Mendes","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":18,"x":387.2,"y":188,"elo":1521,"date":"2014-04-11","opp":"Tatsuya Kawajiri","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":19,"x":398.7,"y":218,"elo":1505,"date":"2014-07-26","opp":"Dennis Bermudez","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":20,"x":426.1,"y":187.8,"elo":1521,"date":"2015-04-04","opp":"Robert Peralta","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":21,"x":449.6,"y":223.1,"elo":1502,"date":"2015-11-07","opp":"Thiago Tavares","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":22,"x":472.4,"y":254.2,"elo":1485,"date":"2016-06-04","opp":"Brian Ortega","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":23,"x":514.4,"y":225.1,"elo":1501,"date":"2017-06-25","opp":"Erik Koch","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":24,"x":529.5,"y":188.6,"elo":1521,"date":"2017-11-11","opp":"Joe Lauzon","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":25,"x":552.3,"y":222.6,"elo":1502,"date":"2018-06-09","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":26,"x":588.8,"y":193.5,"elo":1518,"date":"2019-05-11","opp":"BJ Penn","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":27,"x":597.9,"y":225.1,"elo":1501,"date":"2019-08-03","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":28,"x":632.9,"y":255.1,"elo":1485,"date":"2020-06-20","opp":"King Green","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":29,"x":657.9,"y":227.5,"elo":1500,"date":"2021-02-06","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":30,"x":679.2,"y":256,"elo":1484,"date":"2021-08-21","opp":"Mark Madsen","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":31,"x":690.6,"y":211.8,"elo":1508,"date":"2021-12-04","opp":"Leonardo Santos","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":32,"x":705.8,"y":243.2,"elo":1491,"date":"2022-04-23","opp":"Claudio Puelles","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":33,"x":730.2,"y":213.8,"elo":1507,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Scott Holtzman","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":34,"x":744.6,"y":247.4,"elo":1489,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Rafa Garcia","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":35,"x":769.7,"y":276.3,"elo":1473,"date":"2023-12-02","opp":"Joaquim Silva","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":36,"x":810,"y":306.5,"elo":1457,"date":"2024-12-07","opp":"Chase Hooper","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 7, 2024 Chase Hooper L -16
Dec 2, 2023 Joaquim Silva L -16
Apr 15, 2023 Rafa Garcia L -18
Dec 3, 2022 Scott Holtzman W +16
Apr 23, 2022 Claudio Puelles L -17

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
39%
7 / 18
Finish rate
KO
2
11% of wins
SUB
5
28% of wins
DEC
11
61% of wins
KO: 2 (11%) 2 Sub: 5 (28%) 5 Dec: 11 (61%) 11
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
2 29%
R2
4 57%
R3
1 14%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1156 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
60% Head
  • Head 60%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 24%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
65% Distance
  • Distance 65%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 21%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
53%
of losses by finish
10 of 19 · usually R1
2 KO/TKO 8 Sub 9 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1544
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
2
of 18 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Leonardo Santos
Elo 1645 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
17.5
+0.5 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 37 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1557
Notable wins
Leonardo Santos 1645 Nate Diaz 1644

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Clay Guida on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.