HonestElo
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Clay Guida

Active #70 lightweight · Orthodox · 170 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1506 ±40
LCB 1454
Rank
#70
top 69% of division
UFC record
18-19-0
KO 2 · Sub 5 · Dec 11
Streak
-3
Δ90d +2 · Δ1y +2
Last fight
Dec 7, 2024
L by Submission

Elo history

37 fights · tap & drag
Oct 14, 2006 — W vs Justin James Δ+33Jan 25, 2007 — L vs Din Thomas Δ-28Jun 16, 2007 — L vs Tyson Griffin Δ-29Aug 25, 2007 — W vs Marcus Aurelio Δ+31Dec 8, 2007 — L vs Roger Huerta Δ-22Apr 2, 2008 — W vs Samy Schiavo Δ+19Sep 17, 2008 — W vs Mac Danzig Δ+19Jan 31, 2009 — W vs Nate Diaz Δ+21Jun 20, 2009 — L vs Diego Sanchez Δ-11Dec 12, 2009 — L vs Kenny Florian Δ-14Mar 21, 2010 — W vs Shannon Gugerty Δ+18Aug 7, 2010 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+19Jan 1, 2011 — W vs Takanori Gomi Δ+17Jun 4, 2011 — W vs Anthony Pettis Δ+13Nov 12, 2011 — L vs Benson Henderson Δ-17Jun 22, 2012 — L vs Gray Maynard Δ-12Jan 26, 2013 — W vs Hatsu Hioki Δ+15Aug 31, 2013 — L vs Chad Mendes Δ-17Apr 11, 2014 — W vs Tatsuya Kawajiri Δ+15Jul 26, 2014 — L vs Dennis Bermudez Δ-16Apr 4, 2015 — W vs Robert Peralta Δ+17Nov 7, 2015 — L vs Thiago Tavares Δ-19Jun 4, 2016 — L vs Brian Ortega Δ-17Jun 25, 2017 — W vs Erik Koch Δ+16Nov 11, 2017 — W vs Joe Lauzon Δ+20Jun 9, 2018 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-19May 11, 2019 — W vs BJ Penn Δ+16Aug 3, 2019 — L vs Jim Miller Δ-17Jun 20, 2020 — L vs King Green Δ-16Feb 6, 2021 — W vs Michael Johnson Δ+15Aug 21, 2021 — L vs Mark Madsen Δ-16Dec 4, 2021 — W vs Leonardo Santos Δ+24Apr 23, 2022 — L vs Claudio Puelles Δ-17Dec 3, 2022 — W vs Scott Holtzman Δ+16Apr 15, 2023 — L vs Rafa Garcia Δ-18Dec 2, 2023 — L vs Joaquim Silva Δ-16Dec 7, 2024 — L vs Chase Hooper Δ-16 14361483153015781625 200920122015201820212024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":126.8,"elo":1533,"date":"2006-10-14","opp":"Justin James","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":37.2,"y":158.7,"elo":1505,"date":"2007-01-25","opp":"Din Thomas","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":55.5,"y":191.3,"elo":1476,"date":"2007-06-16","opp":"Tyson Griffin","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":64.5,"y":156.7,"elo":1506,"date":"2007-08-25","opp":"Marcus Aurelio","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":78,"y":181,"elo":1485,"date":"2007-12-08","opp":"Roger Huerta","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":5,"x":92.9,"y":159.5,"elo":1504,"date":"2008-04-02","opp":"Samy Schiavo","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":114.5,"y":138.2,"elo":1523,"date":"2008-09-17","opp":"Mac Danzig","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":7,"x":132,"y":114.3,"elo":1544,"date":"2009-01-31","opp":"Nate Diaz","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":8,"x":150,"y":126.4,"elo":1534,"date":"2009-06-20","opp":"Diego Sanchez","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":9,"x":172.4,"y":142.6,"elo":1519,"date":"2009-12-12","opp":"Kenny Florian","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":185.2,"y":123,"elo":1537,"date":"2010-03-21","opp":"Shannon Gugerty","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":203,"y":101.6,"elo":1556,"date":"2010-08-07","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":12,"x":221.9,"y":83,"elo":1572,"date":"2011-01-01","opp":"Takanori Gomi","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":13,"x":241.7,"y":68.7,"elo":1585,"date":"2011-06-04","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":14,"x":262.4,"y":87.3,"elo":1568,"date":"2011-11-12","opp":"Benson Henderson","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":15,"x":291.1,"y":100.6,"elo":1557,"date":"2012-06-22","opp":"Gray Maynard","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":16,"x":319.1,"y":84.2,"elo":1571,"date":"2013-01-26","opp":"Hatsu Hioki","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":17,"x":347,"y":103.2,"elo":1554,"date":"2013-08-31","opp":"Chad Mendes","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":18,"x":375.6,"y":86.4,"elo":1569,"date":"2014-04-11","opp":"Tatsuya Kawajiri","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":19,"x":389.3,"y":104.8,"elo":1553,"date":"2014-07-26","opp":"Dennis Bermudez","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":20,"x":421.7,"y":86.3,"elo":1569,"date":"2015-04-04","opp":"Robert Peralta","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":21,"x":449.6,"y":107.9,"elo":1550,"date":"2015-11-07","opp":"Thiago Tavares","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":22,"x":476.5,"y":126.9,"elo":1533,"date":"2016-06-04","opp":"Brian Ortega","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":23,"x":526.2,"y":109.1,"elo":1549,"date":"2017-06-25","opp":"Erik Koch","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":24,"x":544,"y":86.8,"elo":1569,"date":"2017-11-11","opp":"Joe Lauzon","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":25,"x":571,"y":107.6,"elo":1550,"date":"2018-06-09","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":26,"x":614.2,"y":89.8,"elo":1566,"date":"2019-05-11","opp":"BJ Penn","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":27,"x":625,"y":109.1,"elo":1549,"date":"2019-08-03","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":28,"x":666.4,"y":127.5,"elo":1533,"date":"2020-06-20","opp":"King Green","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":29,"x":696.1,"y":110.6,"elo":1548,"date":"2021-02-06","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":30,"x":721.3,"y":128,"elo":1532,"date":"2021-08-21","opp":"Mark Madsen","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":31,"x":734.7,"y":101,"elo":1556,"date":"2021-12-04","opp":"Leonardo Santos","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":32,"x":752.7,"y":120.2,"elo":1539,"date":"2022-04-23","opp":"Claudio Puelles","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":33,"x":781.5,"y":102.2,"elo":1555,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Scott Holtzman","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":34,"x":798.6,"y":122.8,"elo":1537,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Rafa Garcia","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":35,"x":828.3,"y":140.5,"elo":1521,"date":"2023-12-02","opp":"Joaquim Silva","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":36,"x":876,"y":158.9,"elo":1504,"date":"2024-12-07","opp":"Chase Hooper","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 7, 2024 Chase Hooper L -16
Dec 2, 2023 Joaquim Silva L -16
Apr 15, 2023 Rafa Garcia L -18
Dec 3, 2022 Scott Holtzman W +16
Apr 23, 2022 Claudio Puelles L -17

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.49 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
33% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.89 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
61% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.52 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
34% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
69% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.52 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
39%
7 / 18
Finish rate
KO
2
11% of wins
SUB
5
28% of wins
DEC
11
61% of wins
KO: 2 (11%) 2 Sub: 5 (28%) 5 Dec: 11 (61%) 11
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
2 29%
R2
4 57%
R3
1 14%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1544
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
17.5
actual 0 vs expected