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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Form

Both enter off a loss (Jun 2025 / Jun 2026).

Nolan

Fewer than 4 UFC fights — the rating is provisional and the uncertainty band is wide.

Tale of the tape

11-13-0 UFC record 0-2-0
KO 0 · Sub 3 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
-1 Streak -2
41 Age 28
5'11" 180 cm Height 6'2" 188 cm
75" 191 cm Reach 74" 188 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1492 Global Elo 1480
1447 Elo rating 1454
Court McGee — Notable
At a glance
  • 100% takedown defense in last 3 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2010
Eric Nolan — Notable

Court McGee — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1364 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
52% Head
  • Head 52%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 25%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
85% Distance
  • Distance 85%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 9%

Eric Nolan — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 37 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
84% Head
  • Head 84%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 0%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 0%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.50
1.68
div avg 4.23
37%
35%
div avg 50%
3.65
2.59
div avg 3.15
61%
45%
div avg 56%
1.78
0.00
div avg 1.89
25%
0%
div avg 43%
71%
44%
div avg 71%
0.45
0.00
div avg 0.43
4
0
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Court McGee
27% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 3
can finish?
Eric Nolan
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses
Eric Nolan
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Court McGee
finished 23%
3 of 13 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Court McGee has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1577 vs 1500, 1 quality wins to 0.

Court McGee red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1577
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win
Claudio Silva
Elo 1624 at fight time
Expected wins
11.8
−0.8 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 24 fights
1500
1639
Eric Nolan blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1500
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 0 UFC wins
Toughest win
Expected wins
0.9
−0.9 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 2 fights
1500
1500
Corner A recent form
Court McGee
Corner B recent form
Eric Nolan
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Court McGee & Eric Nolan on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.