HonestElo
← welterweight

Nate Diaz

Inactive Retired · Southpaw · 183 cm · reach 193 cm
Retired. Ratings shown are a historical snapshot at the time of the last fight.
Elo rating
1620 ±41
LCB 1567
Rank
—
—
UFC record
16-11-0
KO 2 · Sub 10 · Dec 4
Streak
+1
Δ90d -19 · Δ1y -19
Last fight
Sep 10, 2022
W by Submission

Elo history

27 fights · tap & drag
Jun 23, 2007 — W vs Manvel Gamburyan Δ+41Sep 19, 2007 — W vs Junior Assuncao Δ+29Jan 23, 2008 — W vs Alvin Robinson Δ+27Apr 2, 2008 — W vs Kurt Pellegrino Δ+28Sep 17, 2008 — W vs Josh Neer Δ+19Jan 31, 2009 — L vs Clay Guida Δ-21Jun 20, 2009 — L vs Joe Stevenson Δ-18Sep 16, 2009 — W vs Melvin Guillard Δ+15Jan 11, 2010 — L vs Gray Maynard Δ-14Mar 27, 2010 — W vs Rory Markham Δ+13Aug 28, 2010 — W vs Marcus Davis Δ+18Jan 1, 2011 — L vs Dong Hyun Kim Δ-17Apr 30, 2011 — L vs Rory MacDonald Δ-21Sep 24, 2011 — W vs Takanori Gomi Δ+13Dec 30, 2011 — W vs Donald Cerrone Δ+17May 5, 2012 — W vs Jim Miller Δ+20Dec 8, 2012 — L vs Benson Henderson Δ-18Apr 20, 2013 — L vs Josh Thomson Δ-23Nov 30, 2013 — W vs Gray Maynard Δ+21Dec 13, 2014 — L vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ-15Dec 19, 2015 — W vs Michael Johnson Δ+15Mar 5, 2016 — W vs Conor McGregor Δ+23Aug 20, 2016 — L vs Conor McGregor Δ-14Aug 17, 2019 — W vs Anthony Pettis Δ+16Nov 2, 2019 — L vs Jorge Masvidal Δ-17Jun 12, 2021 — L vs Leon Edwards Δ-15Sep 10, 2022 — W vs Tony Ferguson Δ+20 15011549159616431690 20102013201620192022 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":191.1,"elo":1541,"date":"2007-06-23","opp":"Manvel Gamburyan","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":37.5,"y":158.6,"elo":1570,"date":"2007-09-19","opp":"Junior Assuncao","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":56.8,"y":128.4,"elo":1597,"date":"2008-01-23","opp":"Alvin Robinson","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":3,"x":67.5,"y":97,"elo":1625,"date":"2008-04-02","opp":"Kurt Pellegrino","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":93.3,"y":76.2,"elo":1644,"date":"2008-09-17","opp":"Josh Neer","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":5,"x":114.1,"y":100.2,"elo":1622,"date":"2009-01-31","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":6,"x":135.6,"y":120.7,"elo":1604,"date":"2009-06-20","opp":"Joe Stevenson","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":7,"x":149.1,"y":103.9,"elo":1619,"date":"2009-09-16","opp":"Melvin Guillard","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":8,"x":167,"y":120,"elo":1605,"date":"2010-01-11","opp":"Gray Maynard","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":9,"x":178.5,"y":105.4,"elo":1618,"date":"2010-03-27","opp":"Rory Markham","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":10,"x":202.1,"y":85.3,"elo":1636,"date":"2010-08-28","opp":"Marcus Davis","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":11,"x":221.4,"y":104.4,"elo":1619,"date":"2011-01-01","opp":"Dong Hyun Kim","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":12,"x":239.7,"y":128.3,"elo":1597,"date":"2011-04-30","opp":"Rory MacDonald","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":13,"x":262.2,"y":113.8,"elo":1610,"date":"2011-09-24","opp":"Takanori Gomi","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":14,"x":277.1,"y":95,"elo":1627,"date":"2011-12-30","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":15,"x":296.6,"y":72.5,"elo":1647,"date":"2012-05-05","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":16,"x":329.8,"y":92.6,"elo":1629,"date":"2012-12-08","opp":"Benson Henderson","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":17,"x":350.2,"y":118.9,"elo":1606,"date":"2013-04-20","opp":"Josh Thomson","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":18,"x":384.5,"y":95.6,"elo":1626,"date":"2013-11-30","opp":"Gray Maynard","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":19,"x":442.5,"y":112.9,"elo":1611,"date":"2014-12-13","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":20,"x":499.4,"y":96.5,"elo":1626,"date":"2015-12-19","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":21,"x":511.2,"y":70.8,"elo":1649,"date":"2016-03-05","opp":"Conor McGregor","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":22,"x":536.9,"y":86.7,"elo":1634,"date":"2016-08-20","opp":"Conor McGregor","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":23,"x":704.3,"y":68.9,"elo":1650,"date":"2019-08-17","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":24,"x":716.1,"y":87.7,"elo":1634,"date":"2019-11-02","opp":"Jorge Masvidal","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":25,"x":806.3,"y":104.3,"elo":1619,"date":"2021-06-12","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":26,"x":876,"y":81.4,"elo":1639,"date":"2022-09-10","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"W","delta":20}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 10, 2022 Tony Ferguson W +20
Jun 12, 2021 Leon Edwards L -15
Nov 2, 2019 Jorge Masvidal L -17
Aug 17, 2019 Anthony Pettis W +16
Aug 20, 2016 Conor McGregor L -14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.29 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
45% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.74 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.75 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
26% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
44% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.08 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
75%
12 / 16
Finish rate
KO
2
13% of wins
SUB
10
63% of wins
DEC
4
25% of wins
KO: 2 (13%) 2 Sub: 10 (63%) 10 Dec: 4 (25%) 4
Finishes by round
12 total
R1
5 42%
R2
5 42%
R3
1 8%
R4
1 8%
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1654
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
14.4
actual +2 vs expected