HonestElo
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King Green

Active #26 lightweight
Elo rating
1592 ±38
LCB 1543
Rank
#26
top 25% of division
UFC record
15-12-1
KO 4 · Sub 2 · Dec 9
Streak
+2
Δ90d +15 · Δ1y +28
Last fight
Feb 28, 2026
W by KO

Elo history

28 fights · tap & drag
Feb 2, 2013 — W vs Jacob Volkmann Δ+40Nov 6, 2013 — W vs James Krause Δ+33Dec 14, 2013 — W vs Pat Healy Δ+19Jul 26, 2014 — W vs Josh Thomson Δ+26Nov 22, 2014 — L vs Edson Barboza Δ-29Jun 4, 2016 — L vs Dustin Poirier Δ-15Apr 15, 2017 — L vs Rashid Magomedov Δ-15Oct 7, 2017 — D vs Lando Vannata Δ-3Jan 27, 2018 — W vs Erik Koch Δ+14Dec 15, 2018 — L vs Drakkar Klose Δ-16Nov 16, 2019 — L vs Francisco Trinaldo Δ-13Jun 20, 2020 — W vs Clay Guida Δ+16Aug 1, 2020 — W vs Lando Vannata Δ+13Sep 12, 2020 — W vs Alan Patrick Δ+16Oct 31, 2020 — L vs Thiago Moises Δ-19Aug 7, 2021 — L vs Rafael Fiziev Δ-16Nov 6, 2021 — W vs Al Iaquinta Δ+20Feb 12, 2022 — W vs Nasrat Haqparast Δ+15Feb 26, 2022 — L vs Islam Makhachev Δ-13Dec 17, 2022 — L vs Drew Dober Δ-18Jul 29, 2023 — W vs Tony Ferguson Δ+23Oct 7, 2023 — W vs Grant Dawson Δ+24Dec 2, 2023 — L vs Jalin Turner Δ-20Apr 13, 2024 — W vs Jim Miller Δ+18Jul 27, 2024 — L vs Paddy Pimblett Δ-16Mar 8, 2025 — L vs Mauricio Ruffy Δ-20Dec 13, 2025 — W vs Lance Gibson Jr. Δ+13Feb 28, 2026 — W vs Daniel Zellhuber Δ+15 15001539157816181657 2016201920222025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":182.2,"elo":1540,"date":"2013-02-02","opp":"Jacob Volkmann","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":1,"x":73.4,"y":138.1,"elo":1572,"date":"2013-11-06","opp":"James Krause","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":80.2,"y":112.4,"elo":1591,"date":"2013-12-14","opp":"Pat Healy","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":3,"x":120.2,"y":77.8,"elo":1617,"date":"2014-07-26","opp":"Josh Thomson","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":4,"x":141.4,"y":116.6,"elo":1588,"date":"2014-11-22","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":5,"x":241.4,"y":137.3,"elo":1573,"date":"2016-06-04","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":6,"x":297.6,"y":157.4,"elo":1558,"date":"2017-04-15","opp":"Rashid Magomedov","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":7,"x":328.8,"y":161.3,"elo":1555,"date":"2017-10-07","opp":"Lando Vannata","result":"D","delta":-3},{"i":8,"x":348.8,"y":142.2,"elo":1569,"date":"2018-01-27","opp":"Erik Koch","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":406.3,"y":164.3,"elo":1553,"date":"2018-12-15","opp":"Drakkar Klose","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":10,"x":466.2,"y":182,"elo":1540,"date":"2019-11-16","opp":"Francisco Trinaldo","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":11,"x":505,"y":159.9,"elo":1556,"date":"2020-06-20","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":12,"x":512.5,"y":141.9,"elo":1569,"date":"2020-08-01","opp":"Lando Vannata","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":13,"x":520,"y":119.8,"elo":1586,"date":"2020-09-12","opp":"Alan Patrick","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":14,"x":528.7,"y":145.5,"elo":1567,"date":"2020-10-31","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":15,"x":578.7,"y":166.9,"elo":1551,"date":"2021-08-07","opp":"Rafael Fiziev","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":16,"x":594.9,"y":139.9,"elo":1571,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Al Iaquinta","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":17,"x":612.4,"y":120.1,"elo":1586,"date":"2022-02-12","opp":"Nasrat Haqparast","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":18,"x":614.9,"y":137.3,"elo":1573,"date":"2022-02-26","opp":"Islam Makhachev","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":19,"x":667.4,"y":161,"elo":1555,"date":"2022-12-17","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":20,"x":707.3,"y":130.6,"elo":1578,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":21,"x":719.8,"y":98.2,"elo":1602,"date":"2023-10-07","opp":"Grant Dawson","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":22,"x":729.8,"y":125.5,"elo":1582,"date":"2023-12-02","opp":"Jalin Turner","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":23,"x":753.6,"y":101.3,"elo":1600,"date":"2024-04-13","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":24,"x":772.3,"y":122.5,"elo":1584,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Paddy Pimblett","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":25,"x":812.3,"y":149.3,"elo":1564,"date":"2025-03-08","opp":"Mauricio Ruffy","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":26,"x":862.3,"y":131.7,"elo":1577,"date":"2025-12-13","opp":"Lance Gibson Jr.","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":27,"x":876,"y":111.4,"elo":1592,"date":"2026-02-28","opp":"Daniel Zellhuber","result":"W","delta":15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 28, 2026 Daniel Zellhuber W +15
Dec 13, 2025 Lance Gibson Jr. W +13
Mar 8, 2025 Mauricio Ruffy L -20
Jul 27, 2024 Paddy Pimblett L -16
Apr 13, 2024 Jim Miller W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
6.06 avg 3.98
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
54% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.41 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
62% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.18 avg 1.62
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
46% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
70% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.23 avg 0.53
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
6 / 15
Finish rate
KO
4
27% of wins
SUB
2
13% of wins
DEC
9
60% of wins
KO: 4 (27%) 4 Sub: 2 (13%) 2 Dec: 9 (60%) 9
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
3 50%
R2
1 17%
R3
2 33%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1569
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
13.9
actual +1 vs expected