HonestElo
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Trey Ogden

Active #58 lightweight
Elo rating
1522 ±39
LCB 1471
Rank
#58
top 57% of division
UFC record
3-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d +1 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Jan 11, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

6 fights · tap & drag
Apr 16, 2022 — L vs Jordan Leavitt Δ-26Sep 17, 2022 — W vs Daniel Zellhuber Δ+31Apr 8, 2023 — L vs Ignacio Bahamondes Δ-25Mar 23, 2024 — W vs Kurt Holobaugh Δ+25Jul 20, 2024 — W vs Loik Radzhabov Δ+31Jan 11, 2025 — L vs Thiago Moises Δ-15 14341470150515411576 202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":176.2,"elo":1474,"date":"2022-04-16","opp":"Jordan Leavitt","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":155.1,"y":130.1,"elo":1505,"date":"2022-09-17","opp":"Daniel Zellhuber","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":327.9,"y":167.7,"elo":1480,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Ignacio Bahamondes","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":3,"x":625.8,"y":129.8,"elo":1506,"date":"2024-03-23","opp":"Kurt Holobaugh","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":4,"x":727,"y":83.8,"elo":1536,"date":"2024-07-20","opp":"Loik Radzhabov","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":5,"x":876,"y":106.6,"elo":1521,"date":"2025-01-11","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 11, 2025 Thiago Moises L -15
Jul 20, 2024 Loik Radzhabov W +31
Mar 23, 2024 Kurt Holobaugh W +25
Apr 8, 2023 Ignacio Bahamondes L -25
Sep 17, 2022 Daniel Zellhuber W +31

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.02 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
47% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.84 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.67 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
42% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
100% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.67 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1514
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.9
actual 0 vs expected