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Geoff Neal "Handz of Steel"

Active #31 welterweight · age 35 · Southpaw · 5'11" 180 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 75" 191 cm
At a glance
  • Performance of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 75% of wins by KO or submission
  • 38% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1549
Global Elo 1600 ±39
Rank
#31
top 41% of division
UFC record
8-6-0
KO 5 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -41
Last fight
Feb 21, 2026
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 17m
Avg fight time
9:49
Bonuses
6
Fights per year
1.7
Since last fight
4mo

Honest Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
Feb 18, 2018 — W vs Brian Camozzi Δ+28Sep 8, 2018 — W vs Frank Camacho Δ+28Jan 19, 2019 — W vs Belal Muhammad Δ+31Jul 27, 2019 — W vs Niko Price Δ+34Dec 14, 2019 — W vs Mike Perry Δ+29Dec 19, 2020 — L vs Stephen Thompson Δ-17May 8, 2021 — L vs Neil Magny Δ-15Dec 11, 2021 — W vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Δ+17Aug 6, 2022 — W vs Vicente Luque Δ+21Mar 4, 2023 — L vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Δ-19Feb 17, 2024 — L vs Ian Machado Garry Δ-15Oct 26, 2024 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+19Aug 16, 2025 — L vs Carlos Prates Δ-20Feb 21, 2026 — L vs Uros Medic Δ-21 14501475150015251550157516001625 2020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":361.5,"elo":1477,"date":"2018-02-18","opp":"Brian Camozzi","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":1,"x":139.7,"y":310,"elo":1505,"date":"2018-09-08","opp":"Frank Camacho","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":172.5,"y":253.8,"elo":1535,"date":"2019-01-19","opp":"Belal Muhammad","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":219,"y":192,"elo":1569,"date":"2019-07-27","opp":"Niko Price","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":4,"x":253.4,"y":139.4,"elo":1598,"date":"2019-12-14","opp":"Mike Perry","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":5,"x":344.8,"y":169.7,"elo":1581,"date":"2020-12-19","opp":"Stephen Thompson","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":6,"x":379.2,"y":197.3,"elo":1566,"date":"2021-05-08","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":7,"x":432.6,"y":166.6,"elo":1583,"date":"2021-12-11","opp":"Santiago Ponzinibbio","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":491.2,"y":127.7,"elo":1604,"date":"2022-08-06","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":9,"x":542.9,"y":161.5,"elo":1586,"date":"2023-03-04","opp":"Shavkat Rakhmonov","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":10,"x":629.1,"y":188.7,"elo":1571,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Ian Machado Garry","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":11,"x":691.1,"y":154.4,"elo":1590,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":12,"x":763.5,"y":190.4,"elo":1570,"date":"2025-08-16","opp":"Carlos Prates","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":13,"x":810,"y":229.2,"elo":1549,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Uros Medic","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 21, 2026 Uros Medic L -21
Aug 16, 2025 Carlos Prates L -20
Oct 26, 2024 Rafael Dos Anjos W +19
Feb 17, 2024 Ian Machado Garry L -15
Mar 4, 2023 Shavkat Rakhmonov L -19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
75%
6 / 8
Finish rate
KO
5
63% of wins
SUB
1
13% of wins
DEC
2
25% of wins
KO: 5 (63%) 5 Sub: 1 (13%) 1 Dec: 2 (25%) 2
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
3 50%
R2
2 33%
R3
1 17%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 687 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
85% Head
  • Head 85%
  • Body 8%
  • Leg 6%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 7%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
50%
of losses by finish
3 of 6 · usually R1
2 KO/TKO 1 Sub 3 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1626
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
3
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Vicente Luque
Elo 1690 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
7.1
+0.9 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 14 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1443
1567
Notable wins
Vicente Luque 1690 Santiago Ponzinibbio 1636 Rafael Dos Anjos 1631

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Geoff Neal on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.