HonestElo
← welterweight

Geoff Neal

Active #31 welterweight · Southpaw · 180 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1600 ±39
LCB 1550
Rank
#31
top 33% of division
UFC record
8-6-0
KO 5 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d -21 · Δ1y -41
Last fight
Feb 21, 2026
L by KO

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
Feb 18, 2018 — W vs Brian Camozzi Δ+28Sep 8, 2018 — W vs Frank Camacho Δ+28Jan 19, 2019 — W vs Belal Muhammad Δ+31Jul 27, 2019 — W vs Niko Price Δ+34Dec 14, 2019 — W vs Mike Perry Δ+29Dec 19, 2020 — L vs Stephen Thompson Δ-17May 8, 2021 — L vs Neil Magny Δ-15Dec 11, 2021 — W vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Δ+17Aug 6, 2022 — W vs Vicente Luque Δ+21Mar 4, 2023 — L vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Δ-19Feb 17, 2024 — L vs Ian Machado Garry Δ-15Oct 26, 2024 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+19Aug 16, 2025 — L vs Carlos Prates Δ-20Feb 21, 2026 — L vs Uros Medic Δ-21 14881540159216441696 2020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":195.2,"elo":1528,"date":"2018-02-18","opp":"Brian Camozzi","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":1,"x":82.8,"y":166.5,"elo":1556,"date":"2018-09-08","opp":"Frank Camacho","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":121.6,"y":135.1,"elo":1587,"date":"2019-01-19","opp":"Belal Muhammad","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":176.6,"y":100.7,"elo":1621,"date":"2019-07-27","opp":"Niko Price","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":4,"x":217.4,"y":71.3,"elo":1649,"date":"2019-12-14","opp":"Mike Perry","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":5,"x":325.5,"y":88.2,"elo":1633,"date":"2020-12-19","opp":"Stephen Thompson","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":6,"x":366.3,"y":103.6,"elo":1618,"date":"2021-05-08","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":7,"x":429.5,"y":86.5,"elo":1634,"date":"2021-12-11","opp":"Santiago Ponzinibbio","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":498.8,"y":64.8,"elo":1656,"date":"2022-08-06","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":9,"x":560,"y":83.7,"elo":1637,"date":"2023-03-04","opp":"Shavkat Rakhmonov","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":10,"x":661.9,"y":98.8,"elo":1622,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Ian Machado Garry","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":11,"x":735.3,"y":79.7,"elo":1641,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":12,"x":820.9,"y":99.8,"elo":1621,"date":"2025-08-16","opp":"Carlos Prates","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":121.4,"elo":1600,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Uros Medic","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 21, 2026 Uros Medic L -21
Aug 16, 2025 Carlos Prates L -20
Oct 26, 2024 Rafael Dos Anjos W +19
Feb 17, 2024 Ian Machado Garry L -15
Mar 4, 2023 Shavkat Rakhmonov L -19

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.29 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
51% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.78 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
57% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.47 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
45% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
90% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.09 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
75%
6 / 8
Finish rate
KO
5
63% of wins
SUB
1
13% of wins
DEC
2
25% of wins
KO: 5 (63%) 5 Sub: 1 (13%) 1 Dec: 2 (25%) 2
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
3 50%
R2
2 33%
R3
1 17%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1626
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.1
actual +1 vs expected