HonestElo
← welterweight

Kamaru Usman "The Nigerian Nightmare"

Active #2 welterweight · age 39 · Switch · 6'0" 183 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 76" 193 cm
At a glance
  • 6 successful title defenses
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Career-best 15-fight win streak
  • UFC veteran since 2015
Elo rating
1691
Global Elo 1746 ±43
Rank
#2
top 1% of division
UFC record
16-3-0
KO 4 · Sub 1 · Dec 11
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
Jun 14, 2025
Win by Decision · R5
Career at a glance
Octagon time
5h 39m
Avg fight time
17:50
Title fights
7-2
Bonuses
2
Fights per year
1.9
Ground control
2h 27m
Since last fight
1y

Honest Elo history

19 fights · tap & drag
Jul 12, 2015 — W vs Hayder Hassan Δ+41Dec 19, 2015 — W vs Leon Edwards Δ+29Jul 23, 2016 — W vs Alexander Yakovlev Δ+26Nov 19, 2016 — W vs Warlley Alves Δ+29Apr 8, 2017 — W vs Sean Strickland Δ+28Sep 16, 2017 — W vs Sergio Moraes Δ+17Jan 14, 2018 — W vs Emil Meek Δ+10May 19, 2018 — W vs Demian Maia Δ+16Nov 30, 2018 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+15Mar 2, 2019 — W vs Tyron Woodley Δ+19Dec 14, 2019 — W vs Colby Covington Δ+20Jul 11, 2020 — W vs Jorge Masvidal Δ+15Feb 13, 2021 — W vs Gilbert Burns Δ+17Apr 24, 2021 — W vs Jorge Masvidal Δ+14Nov 6, 2021 — W vs Colby Covington Δ+14Aug 20, 2022 — L vs Leon Edwards Δ-32Mar 18, 2023 — L vs Leon Edwards Δ-24Oct 21, 2023 — L vs Khamzat Chimaev Δ-20Jun 14, 2025 — W vs Joaquin Buckley Δ+12 14501500155016001650170017501800 20172019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":377.6,"elo":1485,"date":"2015-07-12","opp":"Hayder Hassan","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":121.8,"y":351.4,"elo":1514,"date":"2015-12-19","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":164.9,"y":327.6,"elo":1540,"date":"2016-07-23","opp":"Alexander Yakovlev","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":3,"x":188.5,"y":300.9,"elo":1569,"date":"2016-11-19","opp":"Warlley Alves","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":216.3,"y":275.7,"elo":1597,"date":"2017-04-08","opp":"Sean Strickland","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":248.3,"y":260.6,"elo":1613,"date":"2017-09-16","opp":"Sergio Moraes","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":272.1,"y":251.5,"elo":1623,"date":"2018-01-14","opp":"Emil Meek","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":7,"x":297,"y":236.6,"elo":1640,"date":"2018-05-19","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":335.7,"y":222.8,"elo":1655,"date":"2018-11-30","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":354,"y":205.2,"elo":1674,"date":"2019-03-02","opp":"Tyron Woodley","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":411,"y":186.5,"elo":1694,"date":"2019-12-14","opp":"Colby Covington","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":11,"x":452.7,"y":173.3,"elo":1709,"date":"2020-07-11","opp":"Jorge Masvidal","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":12,"x":495.8,"y":157.6,"elo":1726,"date":"2021-02-13","opp":"Gilbert Burns","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":13,"x":509.7,"y":144.8,"elo":1740,"date":"2021-04-24","opp":"Jorge Masvidal","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":548.6,"y":132,"elo":1754,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Colby Covington","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":15,"x":605.6,"y":160.9,"elo":1723,"date":"2022-08-20","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":16,"x":647.3,"y":183,"elo":1698,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":17,"x":690.4,"y":200.9,"elo":1679,"date":"2023-10-21","opp":"Khamzat Chimaev","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":18,"x":810,"y":190,"elo":1691,"date":"2025-06-14","opp":"Joaquin Buckley","result":"W","delta":12}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 14, 2025 Joaquin Buckley W +12
Oct 21, 2023 Khamzat Chimaev L -20
Mar 18, 2023 Leon Edwards L -24
Aug 20, 2022 Leon Edwards L -32
Nov 6, 2021 Colby Covington W +14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
31%
5 / 16
Finish rate
KO
4
25% of wins
SUB
1
6% of wins
DEC
11
69% of wins
KO: 4 (25%) 4 Sub: 1 (6%) Dec: 11 (69%) 11
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
1 20%
R2
2 40%
R3
1 20%
R4
R5
1 20%

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1411 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 29%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
57% Distance
  • Distance 57%
  • Clinch 17%
  • Ground 26%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
33%
of losses by finish
1 of 3
1 KO/TKO 0 Sub 2 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1677
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
12
of 16 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Tyron Woodley
Elo 1699 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
11.0
+5.0 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 19 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1644
Notable wins
Tyron Woodley 1699 Colby Covington ×2 1691 Demian Maia 1686 Gilbert Burns 1676 Rafael Dos Anjos 1674 Jorge Masvidal ×2 1652

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Sean Brady
#6 · Elo 1645
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Kamaru Usman on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.