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Colby Covington

Active #15 welterweight · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 183 cm
Elo rating
1649 ±40
LCB 1597
Rank
#15
top 15% of division
UFC record
12-5-0
KO 3 · Sub 2 · Dec 7
Streak
-2
Δ90d -4 · Δ1y -4
Last fight
Dec 14, 2024
L by KO

Elo history

17 fights · tap & drag
Aug 23, 2014 — W vs Anying Wang Δ+36Nov 8, 2014 — W vs Wagner Silva Δ+27May 23, 2015 — W vs Mike Pyle Δ+30Dec 12, 2015 — L vs Warlley Alves Δ-32Jun 18, 2016 — W vs Jonathan Meunier Δ+27Aug 20, 2016 — W vs Max Griffin Δ+14Dec 17, 2016 — W vs Bryan Barberena Δ+15Jun 17, 2017 — W vs Dong Hyun Kim Δ+19Oct 28, 2017 — W vs Demian Maia Δ+19Jun 9, 2018 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+22Aug 3, 2019 — W vs Robbie Lawler Δ+14Dec 14, 2019 — L vs Kamaru Usman Δ-20Sep 19, 2020 — W vs Tyron Woodley Δ+18Nov 6, 2021 — L vs Kamaru Usman Δ-14Mar 5, 2022 — W vs Jorge Masvidal Δ+14Dec 16, 2023 — L vs Leon Edwards Δ-18Dec 14, 2024 — L vs Joaquin Buckley Δ-18 14961555161316721731 20162018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":199.9,"elo":1536,"date":"2014-08-23","opp":"Anying Wang","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":1,"x":41.4,"y":175.9,"elo":1563,"date":"2014-11-08","opp":"Wagner Silva","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":2,"x":85.8,"y":148.7,"elo":1593,"date":"2015-05-23","opp":"Mike Pyle","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":131.7,"y":177.6,"elo":1561,"date":"2015-12-12","opp":"Warlley Alves","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":4,"x":174.4,"y":152.9,"elo":1588,"date":"2016-06-18","opp":"Jonathan Meunier","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":5,"x":188.7,"y":140.4,"elo":1602,"date":"2016-08-20","opp":"Max Griffin","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":6,"x":215.6,"y":126.8,"elo":1617,"date":"2016-12-17","opp":"Bryan Barberena","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":256.8,"y":109.8,"elo":1636,"date":"2017-06-17","opp":"Dong Hyun Kim","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":8,"x":286.9,"y":92.6,"elo":1655,"date":"2017-10-28","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":9,"x":337.6,"y":72.4,"elo":1677,"date":"2018-06-09","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":10,"x":432.6,"y":60.1,"elo":1691,"date":"2019-08-03","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":11,"x":462.7,"y":78.6,"elo":1671,"date":"2019-12-14","opp":"Kamaru Usman","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":12,"x":526,"y":62.3,"elo":1689,"date":"2020-09-19","opp":"Tyron Woodley","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":13,"x":619.4,"y":74.9,"elo":1675,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Kamaru Usman","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":14,"x":646.4,"y":62.6,"elo":1688,"date":"2022-03-05","opp":"Jorge Masvidal","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":15,"x":793.7,"y":78.5,"elo":1671,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":16,"x":876,"y":94.8,"elo":1653,"date":"2024-12-14","opp":"Joaquin Buckley","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 14, 2024 Joaquin Buckley L -18
Dec 16, 2023 Leon Edwards L -18
Mar 5, 2022 Jorge Masvidal W +14
Nov 6, 2021 Kamaru Usman L -14
Sep 19, 2020 Tyron Woodley W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.60 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
38% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.92 avg 2.83
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.44 avg 1.74
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
43% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
69% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.15 avg 0.45
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
6 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
42%
5 / 12
Finish rate
KO
3
25% of wins
SUB
2
17% of wins
DEC
7
58% of wins
KO: 3 (25%) 3 Sub: 2 (17%) 2 Dec: 7 (58%) 7
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
1 20%
R2
R3
3 60%
R4
R5
1 20%

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1688
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.5
actual +4 vs expected