HonestElo
← lightweight

Alexander Hernandez "El Gran Chango"

Active #36 lightweight · age 33 · Orthodox · 5'9" 175 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 72" 183 cm
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 40% of wins finished in round 1
  • UFC veteran since 2018
Elo rating
1519
Global Elo 1570 ±39
Rank
#36
top 40% of division
UFC record
10-8-0
KO 5 · Sub 0 · Dec 5
Streak
-1
Δ90d -18 · Δ1y +23
Last fight
Apr 25, 2026
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
3h 7m
Avg fight time
10:22
Bonuses
5
Fights per year
2.2
Since last fight
2mo

Honest Elo history

18 fights · tap & drag
Mar 3, 2018 — W vs Beneil Dariush Δ+45Jul 28, 2018 — W vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier Δ+33Jan 19, 2019 — L vs Donald Cerrone Δ-24Jul 20, 2019 — W vs Francisco Trinaldo Δ+35May 13, 2020 — L vs Drew Dober Δ-36Oct 31, 2020 — W vs Chris Gruetzemacher Δ+16Feb 27, 2021 — L vs Thiago Moises Δ-17Oct 2, 2021 — W vs Mike Breeden Δ+16Feb 12, 2022 — L vs Renato Moicano Δ-17Dec 10, 2022 — L vs Billy Quarantillo Δ-17Feb 18, 2023 — W vs Jim Miller Δ+20Oct 7, 2023 — L vs Bill Algeo Δ-16Apr 6, 2024 — L vs Damon Jackson Δ-16Oct 5, 2024 — W vs Austin Hubbard Δ+14Mar 15, 2025 — W vs Kurt Holobaugh Δ+12Aug 16, 2025 — W vs Chase Hooper Δ+21Sep 13, 2025 — W vs Diego Ferreira Δ+20Apr 25, 2026 — L vs Rafa Garcia Δ-18 1440146014801500152015401560 2020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":267.1,"elo":1494,"date":"2018-03-03","opp":"Beneil Dariush","result":"W","delta":45},{"i":1,"x":125.6,"y":179.6,"elo":1526,"date":"2018-07-28","opp":"Olivier Aubin-Mercier","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":167.9,"y":242.8,"elo":1503,"date":"2019-01-19","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":3,"x":212,"y":148.7,"elo":1538,"date":"2019-07-20","opp":"Francisco Trinaldo","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":4,"x":284.1,"y":243.3,"elo":1503,"date":"2020-05-13","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":5,"x":325.5,"y":200.7,"elo":1519,"date":"2020-10-31","opp":"Chris Gruetzemacher","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":354.3,"y":245.5,"elo":1502,"date":"2021-02-27","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":7,"x":406.8,"y":203.9,"elo":1517,"date":"2021-10-02","opp":"Mike Breeden","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":439,"y":250.5,"elo":1500,"date":"2022-02-12","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":9,"x":511.8,"y":296.7,"elo":1483,"date":"2022-12-10","opp":"Billy Quarantillo","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":10,"x":528.8,"y":243.9,"elo":1502,"date":"2023-02-18","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":11,"x":584.7,"y":286.8,"elo":1486,"date":"2023-10-07","opp":"Bill Algeo","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":12,"x":628.7,"y":330,"elo":1470,"date":"2024-04-06","opp":"Damon Jackson","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":13,"x":672.8,"y":292.4,"elo":1484,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Austin Hubbard","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":711.7,"y":260.9,"elo":1496,"date":"2025-03-15","opp":"Kurt Holobaugh","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":15,"x":749,"y":205.5,"elo":1517,"date":"2025-08-16","opp":"Chase Hooper","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":16,"x":755.8,"y":152.1,"elo":1537,"date":"2025-09-13","opp":"Diego Ferreira","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":17,"x":810,"y":199.3,"elo":1519,"date":"2026-04-25","opp":"Rafa Garcia","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 25, 2026 Rafa Garcia L -18
Sep 13, 2025 Diego Ferreira W +20
Aug 16, 2025 Chase Hooper W +21
Mar 15, 2025 Kurt Holobaugh W +12
Oct 5, 2024 Austin Hubbard W +14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
5 / 10
Finish rate
KO
5
50% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
5
50% of wins
KO: 5 (50%) 5 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 5 (50%) 5
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
4 80%
R2
1 20%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 789 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
56% Head
  • Head 56%
  • Body 31%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
85% Distance
  • Distance 85%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 7%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
50%
of losses by finish
4 of 8 · usually R2
3 KO/TKO 1 Sub 4 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1533
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
3
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Francisco Trinaldo
Elo 1634 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
8.7
+1.3 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 18 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1624
1551
Notable wins
Francisco Trinaldo 1634 Beneil Dariush 1624 Jim Miller 1619

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Alexander Hernandez on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.