HonestElo
← lightweight

Alexander Hernandez

Active #29 lightweight · Orthodox · 175 cm · reach 183 cm
Elo rating
1588 ±38
LCB 1538
Rank
#29
top 28% of division
UFC record
10-7-0
KO 5 · Sub 0 · Dec 5
Streak
+4
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +41
Last fight
Sep 13, 2025
W by KO

Elo history

17 fights · tap & drag
Mar 3, 2018 — W vs Beneil Dariush Δ+45Jul 28, 2018 — W vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier Δ+33Jan 19, 2019 — L vs Donald Cerrone Δ-24Jul 20, 2019 — W vs Francisco Trinaldo Δ+35May 13, 2020 — L vs Drew Dober Δ-36Oct 31, 2020 — W vs Chris Gruetzemacher Δ+16Feb 27, 2021 — L vs Thiago Moises Δ-17Oct 2, 2021 — W vs Mike Breeden Δ+16Feb 12, 2022 — L vs Renato Moicano Δ-17Dec 10, 2022 — L vs Billy Quarantillo Δ-17Feb 18, 2023 — W vs Jim Miller Δ+20Oct 7, 2023 — L vs Bill Algeo Δ-16Apr 6, 2024 — L vs Damon Jackson Δ-16Oct 5, 2024 — W vs Austin Hubbard Δ+14Mar 15, 2025 — W vs Kurt Holobaugh Δ+12Aug 16, 2025 — W vs Chase Hooper Δ+21Sep 13, 2025 — W vs Diego Ferreira Δ+20 14811518155515921629 202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":144.9,"elo":1545,"date":"2018-03-03","opp":"Beneil Dariush","result":"W","delta":45},{"i":1,"x":69.5,"y":97.9,"elo":1577,"date":"2018-07-28","opp":"Olivier Aubin-Mercier","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":123.7,"y":131.9,"elo":1554,"date":"2019-01-19","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":3,"x":180.1,"y":81.3,"elo":1589,"date":"2019-07-20","opp":"Francisco Trinaldo","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":4,"x":272.4,"y":132.1,"elo":1553,"date":"2020-05-13","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":5,"x":325.3,"y":109.2,"elo":1569,"date":"2020-10-31","opp":"Chris Gruetzemacher","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":362.2,"y":133.3,"elo":1553,"date":"2021-02-27","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":7,"x":429.4,"y":110.9,"elo":1568,"date":"2021-10-02","opp":"Mike Breeden","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":470.6,"y":136,"elo":1551,"date":"2022-02-12","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":9,"x":563.8,"y":160.8,"elo":1533,"date":"2022-12-10","opp":"Billy Quarantillo","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":10,"x":585.5,"y":132.4,"elo":1553,"date":"2023-02-18","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":11,"x":657,"y":155.5,"elo":1537,"date":"2023-10-07","opp":"Bill Algeo","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":12,"x":713.4,"y":178.7,"elo":1521,"date":"2024-04-06","opp":"Damon Jackson","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":13,"x":769.8,"y":158.5,"elo":1535,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Austin Hubbard","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":819.6,"y":141.6,"elo":1547,"date":"2025-03-15","opp":"Kurt Holobaugh","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":15,"x":867.3,"y":111.8,"elo":1568,"date":"2025-08-16","opp":"Chase Hooper","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":16,"x":876,"y":83.2,"elo":1588,"date":"2025-09-13","opp":"Diego Ferreira","result":"W","delta":20}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 13, 2025 Diego Ferreira W +20
Aug 16, 2025 Chase Hooper W +21
Mar 15, 2025 Kurt Holobaugh W +12
Oct 5, 2024 Austin Hubbard W +14
Apr 6, 2024 Damon Jackson L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.89 avg 4.06
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
41% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.06 avg 3.37
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.03 avg 1.63
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
36% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
73% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.08 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
5 / 10
Finish rate
KO
5
50% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
5
50% of wins
KO: 5 (50%) 5 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 5 (50%) 5
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
4 80%
R2
1 20%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1529
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.1
actual +2 vs expected