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Rafael Dos Anjos

Active #28 welterweight · Southpaw · 173 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1609 ±34
LCB 1565
Rank
#28
top 30% of division
UFC record
21-15-0
KO 4 · Sub 5 · Dec 12
Streak
-3
Δ90d -3 · Δ1y -3
Last fight
Oct 26, 2024
L by KO

Elo history

36 fights · tap & drag
Nov 15, 2008 — L vs Jeremy Stephens Δ-32Apr 1, 2009 — L vs Tyson Griffin Δ-19Sep 19, 2009 — W vs Rob Emerson Δ+35Jan 11, 2010 — W vs Kyle Bradley Δ+28Apr 10, 2010 — W vs Terry Etim Δ+39Aug 7, 2010 — L vs Clay Guida Δ-19Jul 2, 2011 — W vs George Sotiropoulos Δ+25Nov 19, 2011 — L vs Gleison Tibau Δ-15May 15, 2012 — W vs Kamal Shalorus Δ+14Jul 11, 2012 — W vs Anthony Njokuani Δ+14Nov 17, 2012 — W vs Mark Bocek Δ+16May 18, 2013 — W vs Evan Dunham Δ+17Aug 28, 2013 — W vs Donald Cerrone Δ+17Apr 19, 2014 — L vs Khabib Nurmagomedov Δ-15Jun 7, 2014 — W vs Jason High Δ+14Aug 23, 2014 — W vs Benson Henderson Δ+23Dec 13, 2014 — W vs Nate Diaz Δ+15Mar 14, 2015 — W vs Anthony Pettis Δ+21Dec 19, 2015 — W vs Donald Cerrone Δ+26Jul 7, 2016 — L vs Eddie Alvarez Δ-32Nov 5, 2016 — L vs Tony Ferguson Δ-15Jun 17, 2017 — W vs Tarec Saffiedine Δ+10Sep 9, 2017 — W vs Neil Magny Δ+17Dec 16, 2017 — W vs Robbie Lawler Δ+15Jun 9, 2018 — L vs Colby Covington Δ-22Nov 30, 2018 — L vs Kamaru Usman Δ-15May 18, 2019 — W vs Kevin Lee Δ+17Jul 20, 2019 — L vs Leon Edwards Δ-18Jan 25, 2020 — L vs Michael Chiesa Δ-17Nov 14, 2020 — W vs Paul Felder Δ+14Mar 5, 2022 — W vs Renato Moicano Δ+14Jul 9, 2022 — L vs Rafael Fiziev Δ-21Dec 3, 2022 — W vs Bryan Barberena Δ+15Aug 12, 2023 — L vs Vicente Luque Δ-16Mar 9, 2024 — L vs Mateusz Gamrot Δ-16Oct 26, 2024 — L vs Geoff Neal Δ-19 14091492157516581742 20112014201720202023 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":198.2,"elo":1468,"date":"2008-11-15","opp":"Jeremy Stephens","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":1,"x":44,"y":210.5,"elo":1449,"date":"2009-04-01","opp":"Tyson Griffin","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":2,"x":69.1,"y":188.3,"elo":1483,"date":"2009-09-19","opp":"Rob Emerson","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":3,"x":85.7,"y":170.5,"elo":1511,"date":"2010-01-11","opp":"Kyle Bradley","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":98.8,"y":145.7,"elo":1550,"date":"2010-04-10","opp":"Terry Etim","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":5,"x":116.2,"y":157.9,"elo":1531,"date":"2010-08-07","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":6,"x":164.3,"y":142.3,"elo":1556,"date":"2011-07-02","opp":"George Sotiropoulos","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":7,"x":184.8,"y":151.6,"elo":1541,"date":"2011-11-19","opp":"Gleison Tibau","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":8,"x":210.8,"y":143,"elo":1555,"date":"2012-05-15","opp":"Kamal Shalorus","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":219.2,"y":134.1,"elo":1569,"date":"2012-07-11","opp":"Anthony Njokuani","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":10,"x":238,"y":123.9,"elo":1585,"date":"2012-11-17","opp":"Mark Bocek","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":264.6,"y":113.3,"elo":1601,"date":"2013-05-18","opp":"Evan Dunham","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":12,"x":279.6,"y":102.7,"elo":1618,"date":"2013-08-28","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":13,"x":313.8,"y":112.3,"elo":1603,"date":"2014-04-19","opp":"Khabib Nurmagomedov","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":14,"x":321,"y":103.5,"elo":1617,"date":"2014-06-07","opp":"Jason High","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":15,"x":332.2,"y":88.8,"elo":1640,"date":"2014-08-23","opp":"Benson Henderson","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":16,"x":348.6,"y":79,"elo":1655,"date":"2014-12-13","opp":"Nate Diaz","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":17,"x":361.9,"y":65.9,"elo":1676,"date":"2015-03-14","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":18,"x":402.9,"y":49.5,"elo":1702,"date":"2015-12-19","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":19,"x":432.3,"y":70,"elo":1669,"date":"2016-07-07","opp":"Eddie Alvarez","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":20,"x":450,"y":79.6,"elo":1654,"date":"2016-11-05","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":21,"x":482.8,"y":73.5,"elo":1664,"date":"2017-06-17","opp":"Tarec Saffiedine","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":22,"x":495.1,"y":62.8,"elo":1681,"date":"2017-09-09","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":23,"x":509.4,"y":53,"elo":1696,"date":"2017-12-16","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":24,"x":535,"y":67.2,"elo":1674,"date":"2018-06-09","opp":"Colby Covington","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":25,"x":560.4,"y":76.7,"elo":1659,"date":"2018-11-30","opp":"Kamaru Usman","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":26,"x":585.2,"y":65.9,"elo":1676,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Kevin Lee","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":27,"x":594.4,"y":77.1,"elo":1658,"date":"2019-07-20","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":28,"x":622,"y":88.2,"elo":1641,"date":"2020-01-25","opp":"Michael Chiesa","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":29,"x":665,"y":79.1,"elo":1655,"date":"2020-11-14","opp":"Paul Felder","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":30,"x":734.7,"y":70.4,"elo":1669,"date":"2022-03-05","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":31,"x":753.1,"y":83.8,"elo":1648,"date":"2022-07-09","opp":"Rafael Fiziev","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":32,"x":774.6,"y":74.2,"elo":1663,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Bryan Barberena","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":33,"x":811.5,"y":84.2,"elo":1647,"date":"2023-08-12","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":34,"x":842.2,"y":94.7,"elo":1631,"date":"2024-03-09","opp":"Mateusz Gamrot","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":35,"x":876,"y":106.6,"elo":1612,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Geoff Neal","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 26, 2024 Geoff Neal L -19
Mar 9, 2024 Mateusz Gamrot L -16
Aug 12, 2023 Vicente Luque L -16
Dec 3, 2022 Bryan Barberena W +15
Jul 9, 2022 Rafael Fiziev L -21

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.25 avg 3.60
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
47% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.02 avg 2.83
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
60% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.82 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
36% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
55% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.54 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
43%
9 / 21
Finish rate
KO
4
19% of wins
SUB
5
24% of wins
DEC
12
57% of wins
KO: 4 (19%) 4 Sub: 5 (24%) 5 Dec: 12 (57%) 12
Finishes by round
9 total
R1
5 56%
R2
3 33%
R3
R4
1 11%
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1627
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
18.4
actual +3 vs expected