HonestElo
← welterweight

Rafael Dos Anjos

Active #26 welterweight · age 41 · Southpaw · 5'8" 173 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 70" 178 cm
At a glance
  • 1 successful title defense
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • UFC veteran since 2008
Elo rating
1561
Global Elo 1607 ±35
Rank
#26
top 34% of division
UFC record
21-15-0
KO 4 · Sub 5 · Dec 12
Streak
-3
Δ90d -5 · Δ1y -5
Last fight
Oct 26, 2024
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
8h 43m
Avg fight time
14:32
Title fights
2-2
Bonuses
9
Fights per year
2.3
Ground control
2h 17m
Since last fight
1y 8mo

Honest Elo history

36 fights · tap & drag
Nov 15, 2008 — L vs Jeremy Stephens Δ-32Apr 1, 2009 — L vs Tyson Griffin Δ-19Sep 19, 2009 — W vs Rob Emerson Δ+35Jan 11, 2010 — W vs Kyle Bradley Δ+28Apr 10, 2010 — W vs Terry Etim Δ+39Aug 7, 2010 — L vs Clay Guida Δ-19Jul 2, 2011 — W vs George Sotiropoulos Δ+25Nov 19, 2011 — L vs Gleison Tibau Δ-15May 15, 2012 — W vs Kamal Shalorus Δ+14Jul 11, 2012 — W vs Anthony Njokuani Δ+14Nov 17, 2012 — W vs Mark Bocek Δ+16May 18, 2013 — W vs Evan Dunham Δ+17Aug 28, 2013 — W vs Donald Cerrone Δ+17Apr 19, 2014 — L vs Khabib Nurmagomedov Δ-15Jun 7, 2014 — W vs Jason High Δ+14Aug 23, 2014 — W vs Benson Henderson Δ+23Dec 13, 2014 — W vs Nate Diaz Δ+15Mar 14, 2015 — W vs Anthony Pettis Δ+21Dec 19, 2015 — W vs Donald Cerrone Δ+26Jul 7, 2016 — L vs Eddie Alvarez Δ-32Nov 5, 2016 — L vs Tony Ferguson Δ-15Jun 17, 2017 — W vs Tarec Saffiedine Δ+10Sep 9, 2017 — W vs Neil Magny Δ+17Dec 16, 2017 — W vs Robbie Lawler Δ+15Jun 9, 2018 — L vs Colby Covington Δ-22Nov 30, 2018 — L vs Kamaru Usman Δ-15May 18, 2019 — W vs Kevin Lee Δ+17Jul 20, 2019 — L vs Leon Edwards Δ-18Jan 25, 2020 — L vs Michael Chiesa Δ-17Nov 14, 2020 — W vs Paul Felder Δ+14Mar 5, 2022 — W vs Renato Moicano Δ+14Jul 9, 2022 — L vs Rafael Fiziev Δ-21Dec 3, 2022 — W vs Bryan Barberena Δ+15Aug 12, 2023 — L vs Vicente Luque Δ-16Mar 9, 2024 — L vs Mateusz Gamrot Δ-16Oct 26, 2024 — L vs Geoff Neal Δ-19 13501400145015001550160016501700 20112014201720202023 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":348.7,"elo":1417,"date":"2008-11-15","opp":"Jeremy Stephens","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":1,"x":106.9,"y":366.4,"elo":1398,"date":"2009-04-01","opp":"Tyson Griffin","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":2,"x":128.1,"y":334.5,"elo":1433,"date":"2009-09-19","opp":"Rob Emerson","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":3,"x":142.2,"y":308.9,"elo":1461,"date":"2010-01-11","opp":"Kyle Bradley","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":153.2,"y":273.3,"elo":1500,"date":"2010-04-10","opp":"Terry Etim","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":5,"x":167.9,"y":290.8,"elo":1480,"date":"2010-08-07","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":6,"x":208.6,"y":268.4,"elo":1505,"date":"2011-07-02","opp":"George Sotiropoulos","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":7,"x":225.9,"y":281.8,"elo":1490,"date":"2011-11-19","opp":"Gleison Tibau","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":8,"x":247.9,"y":269.4,"elo":1504,"date":"2012-05-15","opp":"Kamal Shalorus","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":254.9,"y":256.7,"elo":1518,"date":"2012-07-11","opp":"Anthony Njokuani","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":10,"x":270.9,"y":242,"elo":1534,"date":"2012-11-17","opp":"Mark Bocek","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":293.4,"y":226.7,"elo":1551,"date":"2013-05-18","opp":"Evan Dunham","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":12,"x":306,"y":211.5,"elo":1567,"date":"2013-08-28","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":13,"x":334.9,"y":225.3,"elo":1552,"date":"2014-04-19","opp":"Khabib Nurmagomedov","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":14,"x":341,"y":212.6,"elo":1566,"date":"2014-06-07","opp":"Jason High","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":15,"x":350.5,"y":191.6,"elo":1589,"date":"2014-08-23","opp":"Benson Henderson","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":16,"x":364.3,"y":177.5,"elo":1604,"date":"2014-12-13","opp":"Nate Diaz","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":17,"x":375.6,"y":158.7,"elo":1625,"date":"2015-03-14","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":18,"x":410.2,"y":135.1,"elo":1651,"date":"2015-12-19","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":19,"x":435,"y":164.6,"elo":1618,"date":"2016-07-07","opp":"Eddie Alvarez","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":20,"x":450,"y":178.4,"elo":1603,"date":"2016-11-05","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":21,"x":477.7,"y":169.6,"elo":1613,"date":"2017-06-17","opp":"Tarec Saffiedine","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":22,"x":488.1,"y":154.2,"elo":1630,"date":"2017-09-09","opp":"Neil Magny","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":23,"x":500.2,"y":140.1,"elo":1645,"date":"2017-12-16","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":24,"x":521.8,"y":160.5,"elo":1623,"date":"2018-06-09","opp":"Colby Covington","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":25,"x":543.3,"y":174.2,"elo":1608,"date":"2018-11-30","opp":"Kamaru Usman","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":26,"x":564.2,"y":158.7,"elo":1625,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Kevin Lee","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":27,"x":572,"y":174.8,"elo":1607,"date":"2019-07-20","opp":"Leon Edwards","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":28,"x":595.4,"y":190.8,"elo":1590,"date":"2020-01-25","opp":"Michael Chiesa","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":29,"x":631.7,"y":177.6,"elo":1604,"date":"2020-11-14","opp":"Paul Felder","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":30,"x":690.6,"y":165.2,"elo":1618,"date":"2022-03-05","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":31,"x":706.2,"y":184.4,"elo":1597,"date":"2022-07-09","opp":"Rafael Fiziev","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":32,"x":724.3,"y":170.6,"elo":1612,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Bryan Barberena","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":33,"x":755.5,"y":185,"elo":1596,"date":"2023-08-12","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":34,"x":781.4,"y":199.9,"elo":1580,"date":"2024-03-09","opp":"Mateusz Gamrot","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":35,"x":810,"y":217.2,"elo":1561,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Geoff Neal","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 26, 2024 Geoff Neal L -19
Mar 9, 2024 Mateusz Gamrot L -16
Aug 12, 2023 Vicente Luque L -16
Dec 3, 2022 Bryan Barberena W +15
Jul 9, 2022 Rafael Fiziev L -21

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
43%
9 / 21
Finish rate
KO
4
19% of wins
SUB
5
24% of wins
DEC
12
57% of wins
KO: 4 (19%) 4 Sub: 5 (24%) 5 Dec: 12 (57%) 12
Finishes by round
9 total
R1
5 56%
R2
3 33%
R3
R4
1 11%
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1822 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
58% Head
  • Head 58%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 18%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
67% Distance
  • Distance 67%
  • Clinch 18%
  • Ground 15%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
33%
of losses by finish
5 of 15 · usually R1
4 KO/TKO 1 Sub 10 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1627
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
11
of 21 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Donald Cerrone
Elo 1718 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
18.4
+2.6 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 36 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1510
1622
Notable wins
Donald Cerrone ×2 1718 Benson Henderson 1706 Robbie Lawler 1668 Anthony Pettis 1665 George Sotiropoulos 1651 Neil Magny 1637

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Rafael Dos Anjos on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.