HonestElo
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Drew Dober

Active #32 lightweight · Southpaw · 173 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1577 ±36
LCB 1530
Rank
#32
top 31% of division
UFC record
15-11-0
KO 11 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
+2
Δ90d +18 · Δ1y +11
Last fight
Mar 7, 2026
W by KO

Elo history

26 fights · tap & drag
Nov 30, 2013 — L vs Sean Spencer Δ-29May 31, 2014 — L vs Nick Hein Δ-26Dec 13, 2014 — W vs Jamie Varner Δ+39Jun 13, 2015 — L vs Efrain Escudero Δ-32Jan 2, 2016 — W vs Scott Holtzman Δ+35Sep 10, 2016 — W vs Jason Gonzalez Δ+19Dec 10, 2016 — L vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier Δ-16Jul 29, 2017 — W vs Joshua Burkman Δ+17Jan 27, 2018 — W vs Frank Camacho Δ+16Aug 25, 2018 — W vs Jon Tuck Δ+16Mar 9, 2019 — L vs Beneil Dariush Δ-15Jun 29, 2019 — W vs Marco Polo Reyes Δ+20Jan 18, 2020 — W vs Nasrat Haqparast Δ+19May 13, 2020 — W vs Alexander Hernandez Δ+20Mar 6, 2021 — L vs Islam Makhachev Δ-15Jun 12, 2021 — L vs Brad Riddell Δ-15Mar 12, 2022 — W vs Terrance McKinney Δ+19Jul 30, 2022 — W vs Rafael Alves Δ+15Dec 17, 2022 — W vs King Green Δ+18May 6, 2023 — L vs Matt Frevola Δ-22Oct 7, 2023 — W vs Ricky Glenn Δ+16Feb 3, 2024 — L vs Renato Moicano Δ-16Jul 13, 2024 — L vs Jean Silva Δ-17Mar 29, 2025 — L vs Manuel Torres Δ-19Oct 18, 2025 — W vs Kyle Prepolec Δ+12Mar 7, 2026 — W vs Michael Johnson Δ+18 14051465152515851645 2016201920222025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":177.4,"elo":1471,"date":"2013-11-30","opp":"Sean Spencer","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":58.6,"y":200.7,"elo":1445,"date":"2014-05-31","opp":"Nick Hein","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":2,"x":95.9,"y":166.8,"elo":1483,"date":"2014-12-13","opp":"Jamie Varner","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":3,"x":130.5,"y":195,"elo":1451,"date":"2015-06-13","opp":"Efrain Escudero","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":4,"x":169.1,"y":163.9,"elo":1486,"date":"2016-01-02","opp":"Scott Holtzman","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":5,"x":217,"y":147,"elo":1505,"date":"2016-09-10","opp":"Jason Gonzalez","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":234.3,"y":161.6,"elo":1489,"date":"2016-12-10","opp":"Olivier Aubin-Mercier","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":278.3,"y":146.4,"elo":1506,"date":"2017-07-29","opp":"Joshua Burkman","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":312.9,"y":132.3,"elo":1522,"date":"2018-01-27","opp":"Frank Camacho","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":352.8,"y":118.4,"elo":1538,"date":"2018-08-25","opp":"Jon Tuck","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":390.1,"y":131.1,"elo":1523,"date":"2019-03-09","opp":"Beneil Dariush","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":11,"x":411.4,"y":113.2,"elo":1544,"date":"2019-06-29","opp":"Marco Polo Reyes","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":12,"x":450,"y":96.2,"elo":1563,"date":"2020-01-18","opp":"Nasrat Haqparast","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":13,"x":472.1,"y":78.8,"elo":1583,"date":"2020-05-13","opp":"Alexander Hernandez","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":14,"x":528.5,"y":91.8,"elo":1568,"date":"2021-03-06","opp":"Islam Makhachev","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":15,"x":547.2,"y":105.2,"elo":1553,"date":"2021-06-12","opp":"Brad Riddell","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":16,"x":599.1,"y":88.4,"elo":1572,"date":"2022-03-12","opp":"Terrance McKinney","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":17,"x":625.7,"y":74.8,"elo":1587,"date":"2022-07-30","opp":"Rafael Alves","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":18,"x":652.4,"y":59.3,"elo":1605,"date":"2022-12-17","opp":"King Green","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":19,"x":679,"y":78.9,"elo":1583,"date":"2023-05-06","opp":"Matt Frevola","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":20,"x":708.3,"y":65,"elo":1598,"date":"2023-10-07","opp":"Ricky Glenn","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":21,"x":730.9,"y":78.9,"elo":1583,"date":"2024-02-03","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":22,"x":761.5,"y":93.8,"elo":1566,"date":"2024-07-13","opp":"Jean Silva","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":23,"x":810.8,"y":110.4,"elo":1547,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Manuel Torres","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":24,"x":849.4,"y":99.6,"elo":1559,"date":"2025-10-18","opp":"Kyle Prepolec","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":25,"x":876,"y":83.7,"elo":1577,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"W","delta":18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 7, 2026 Michael Johnson W +18
Oct 18, 2025 Kyle Prepolec W +12
Mar 29, 2025 Manuel Torres L -19
Jul 13, 2024 Jean Silva L -17
Feb 3, 2024 Renato Moicano L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.67 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
41% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.53 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.51 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
17% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
59% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.06 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
80%
12 / 15
Finish rate
KO
11
73% of wins
SUB
1
7% of wins
DEC
3
20% of wins
KO: 11 (73%) 11 Sub: 1 (7%) Dec: 3 (20%) 3
Finishes by round
12 total
R1
7 58%
R2
3 25%
R3
2 17%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1541
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
12.8
actual +2 vs expected