HonestElo
← lightweight

Drew Dober

Active #32 lightweight · age 37 · Southpaw · 5'8" 173 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 70" 178 cm
At a glance
  • Performance of the Night in last fight
  • 2 KO/TKO finishes in a row
  • Earned a bonus in 4 of last 5 fights
  • 80% of wins by KO or submission
Elo rating
1530
Global Elo 1577 ±36
Rank
#32
top 35% of division
UFC record
15-11-0
KO 11 · Sub 1 · Dec 3
Streak
+2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +30
Last fight
Mar 7, 2026
Win by KO · R2
Career at a glance
Octagon time
3h 34m
Avg fight time
8:14
Bonuses
13
Fights per year
2.1
Since last fight
4mo

Honest Elo history

26 fights · tap & drag
Nov 30, 2013 — L vs Sean Spencer Δ-29May 31, 2014 — L vs Nick Hein Δ-26Dec 13, 2014 — W vs Jamie Varner Δ+39Jun 13, 2015 — L vs Efrain Escudero Δ-32Jan 2, 2016 — W vs Scott Holtzman Δ+35Sep 10, 2016 — W vs Jason Gonzalez Δ+19Dec 10, 2016 — L vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier Δ-16Jul 29, 2017 — W vs Joshua Burkman Δ+17Jan 27, 2018 — W vs Frank Camacho Δ+16Aug 25, 2018 — W vs Jon Tuck Δ+16Mar 9, 2019 — L vs Beneil Dariush Δ-15Jun 29, 2019 — W vs Marco Polo Reyes Δ+20Jan 18, 2020 — W vs Nasrat Haqparast Δ+19May 13, 2020 — W vs Alexander Hernandez Δ+20Mar 6, 2021 — L vs Islam Makhachev Δ-15Jun 12, 2021 — L vs Brad Riddell Δ-15Mar 12, 2022 — W vs Terrance McKinney Δ+19Jul 30, 2022 — W vs Rafael Alves Δ+15Dec 17, 2022 — W vs King Green Δ+18May 6, 2023 — L vs Matt Frevola Δ-22Oct 7, 2023 — W vs Ricky Glenn Δ+16Feb 3, 2024 — L vs Renato Moicano Δ-16Jul 13, 2024 — L vs Jean Silva Δ-17Mar 29, 2025 — L vs Manuel Torres Δ-19Oct 18, 2025 — W vs Kyle Prepolec Δ+12Mar 7, 2026 — W vs Michael Johnson Δ+18 135014001450150015501600 2016201920222025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":315.8,"elo":1424,"date":"2013-11-30","opp":"Sean Spencer","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":119.3,"y":349.6,"elo":1397,"date":"2014-05-31","opp":"Nick Hein","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":2,"x":150.8,"y":300.3,"elo":1436,"date":"2014-12-13","opp":"Jamie Varner","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":3,"x":180,"y":341.3,"elo":1404,"date":"2015-06-13","opp":"Efrain Escudero","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":4,"x":212.6,"y":296.1,"elo":1439,"date":"2016-01-02","opp":"Scott Holtzman","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":5,"x":253.1,"y":271.6,"elo":1458,"date":"2016-09-10","opp":"Jason Gonzalez","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":267.8,"y":292.8,"elo":1442,"date":"2016-12-10","opp":"Olivier Aubin-Mercier","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":304.9,"y":270.7,"elo":1459,"date":"2017-07-29","opp":"Joshua Burkman","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":334.1,"y":250.3,"elo":1475,"date":"2018-01-27","opp":"Frank Camacho","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":367.9,"y":230,"elo":1491,"date":"2018-08-25","opp":"Jon Tuck","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":399.4,"y":248.6,"elo":1476,"date":"2019-03-09","opp":"Beneil Dariush","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":11,"x":417.4,"y":222.6,"elo":1496,"date":"2019-06-29","opp":"Marco Polo Reyes","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":12,"x":450,"y":197.9,"elo":1516,"date":"2020-01-18","opp":"Nasrat Haqparast","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":13,"x":468.6,"y":172.6,"elo":1536,"date":"2020-05-13","opp":"Alexander Hernandez","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":14,"x":516.4,"y":191.5,"elo":1521,"date":"2021-03-06","opp":"Islam Makhachev","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":15,"x":532.1,"y":211,"elo":1506,"date":"2021-06-12","opp":"Brad Riddell","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":16,"x":576,"y":186.5,"elo":1525,"date":"2022-03-12","opp":"Terrance McKinney","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":17,"x":598.5,"y":166.8,"elo":1540,"date":"2022-07-30","opp":"Rafael Alves","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":18,"x":621,"y":144.3,"elo":1558,"date":"2022-12-17","opp":"King Green","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":19,"x":643.5,"y":172.7,"elo":1535,"date":"2023-05-06","opp":"Matt Frevola","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":20,"x":668.3,"y":152.6,"elo":1551,"date":"2023-10-07","opp":"Ricky Glenn","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":21,"x":687.4,"y":172.7,"elo":1535,"date":"2024-02-03","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":22,"x":713.3,"y":194.3,"elo":1519,"date":"2024-07-13","opp":"Jean Silva","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":23,"x":754.9,"y":218.5,"elo":1500,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Manuel Torres","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":24,"x":787.5,"y":202.8,"elo":1512,"date":"2025-10-18","opp":"Kyle Prepolec","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":25,"x":810,"y":179.7,"elo":1530,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"W","delta":18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 7, 2026 Michael Johnson W +18
Oct 18, 2025 Kyle Prepolec W +12
Mar 29, 2025 Manuel Torres L -19
Jul 13, 2024 Jean Silva L -17
Feb 3, 2024 Renato Moicano L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
80%
12 / 15
Finish rate
KO
11
73% of wins
SUB
1
7% of wins
DEC
3
20% of wins
KO: 11 (73%) 11 Sub: 1 (7%) Dec: 3 (20%) 3
Finishes by round
12 total
R1
7 58%
R2
3 25%
R3
2 17%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 972 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
63% Head
  • Head 63%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
80% Distance
  • Distance 80%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 10%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
64%
of losses by finish
7 of 11 · usually R1
3 KO/TKO 4 Sub 4 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1541
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 15 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Alexander Hernandez
Elo 1589 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
12.8
+2.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 26 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1496
1551

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Drew Dober on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.