HonestElo
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Rafa Garcia

Active #40 lightweight · Orthodox · 170 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1551 ±31
LCB 1511
Rank
#40
top 39% of division
UFC record
6-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 4
Streak
+2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +40
Last fight
Sep 13, 2025
W by KO

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Mar 13, 2021 — L vs Nasrat Haqparast Δ-25Jul 31, 2021 — L vs Chris Gruetzemacher Δ-28Nov 20, 2021 — W vs Natan Levy Δ+33Apr 16, 2022 — W vs Jesse Ronson Δ+27Jul 30, 2022 — L vs Drakkar Klose Δ-21Dec 17, 2022 — W vs Maheshate Δ+18Apr 15, 2023 — W vs Clay Guida Δ+18Oct 12, 2024 — L vs Grant Dawson Δ-11Mar 29, 2025 — W vs Vinc Pichel Δ+19Sep 13, 2025 — W vs Jared Gordon Δ+21 14061452149915451591 2022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":157.5,"elo":1475,"date":"2021-03-13","opp":"Nasrat Haqparast","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":1,"x":96.5,"y":190.1,"elo":1446,"date":"2021-07-31","opp":"Chris Gruetzemacher","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":154.5,"y":152,"elo":1479,"date":"2021-11-20","opp":"Natan Levy","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":230.7,"y":120.6,"elo":1507,"date":"2022-04-16","opp":"Jesse Ronson","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":4,"x":285,"y":145.1,"elo":1485,"date":"2022-07-30","opp":"Drakkar Klose","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":5,"x":357.5,"y":124.1,"elo":1504,"date":"2022-12-17","opp":"Maheshate","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":419.2,"y":103.2,"elo":1522,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":702,"y":115.4,"elo":1511,"date":"2024-10-12","opp":"Grant Dawson","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":8,"x":789,"y":93.5,"elo":1530,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Vinc Pichel","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":69.9,"elo":1551,"date":"2025-09-13","opp":"Jared Gordon","result":"W","delta":21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 13, 2025 Jared Gordon W +21
Mar 29, 2025 Vinc Pichel W +19
Oct 12, 2024 Grant Dawson L -11
Apr 15, 2023 Clay Guida W +18
Dec 17, 2022 Maheshate W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.13 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
46% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.34 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
61% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.00 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
44% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
76% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.43 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
2 / 6
Finish rate
KO
1
17% of wins
SUB
1
17% of wins
DEC
4
67% of wins
KO: 1 (17%) 1 Sub: 1 (17%) 1 Dec: 4 (67%) 4
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
1 50%
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1584
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.3
actual +2 vs expected