HonestElo
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Rafa Garcia "Gifted"

Active #28 lightweight · age 32 · Orthodox · 5'7" 170 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 70" 178 cm
Upcoming bout Sat, Sep 12
vs Rongzhu · UFC Fight Night Glendale
At a glance
  • 3-fight UFC win streak
  • 86% takedown defense in last 3 fights
Elo rating
1530
Global Elo 1569 ±30
Rank
#28
top 30% of division
UFC record
7-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 5
Streak
+3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +38
Last fight
Apr 25, 2026
Win by Decision

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
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The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Honest Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Mar 13, 2021 — L vs Nasrat Haqparast Δ-25Jul 31, 2021 — L vs Chris Gruetzemacher Δ-28Nov 20, 2021 — W vs Natan Levy Δ+33Apr 16, 2022 — W vs Jesse Ronson Δ+27Jul 30, 2022 — L vs Drakkar Klose Δ-21Dec 17, 2022 — W vs Maheshate Δ+18Apr 15, 2023 — W vs Clay Guida Δ+18Oct 12, 2024 — L vs Grant Dawson Δ-11Mar 29, 2025 — W vs Vinc Pichel Δ+19Sep 13, 2025 — W vs Jared Gordon Δ+21Apr 25, 2026 — W vs Alexander Hernandez Δ+18 13751425147515251575 20222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":312.1,"elo":1436,"date":"2021-03-13","opp":"Nasrat Haqparast","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":1,"x":143.9,"y":357.5,"elo":1408,"date":"2021-07-31","opp":"Chris Gruetzemacher","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":187.1,"y":304.4,"elo":1441,"date":"2021-11-20","opp":"Natan Levy","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":243.7,"y":260.6,"elo":1468,"date":"2022-04-16","opp":"Jesse Ronson","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":4,"x":284.2,"y":294.8,"elo":1447,"date":"2022-07-30","opp":"Drakkar Klose","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":5,"x":338.1,"y":265.5,"elo":1465,"date":"2022-12-17","opp":"Maheshate","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":383.9,"y":236.2,"elo":1484,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":594.3,"y":253.4,"elo":1473,"date":"2024-10-12","opp":"Grant Dawson","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":8,"x":659,"y":222.8,"elo":1492,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Vinc Pichel","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":9,"x":723.7,"y":189.8,"elo":1513,"date":"2025-09-13","opp":"Jared Gordon","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":10,"x":810,"y":161.5,"elo":1530,"date":"2026-04-25","opp":"Alexander Hernandez","result":"W","delta":18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 25, 2026 Alexander Hernandez W +18
Sep 13, 2025 Jared Gordon W +21
Mar 29, 2025 Vinc Pichel W +19
Oct 12, 2024 Grant Dawson L -11
Apr 15, 2023 Clay Guida W +18
How the wins come
  • 1 win by knockout 14%
  • 1 win by submission 14%
  • 5 wins by decision 71%

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
29%
2 / 7
Finish rate
KO
1
14% of wins
SUB
1
14% of wins
DEC
5
71% of wins
KO: 1 (14%) 1 Sub: 1 (14%) 1 Dec: 5 (71%) 5
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
1 50%
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 637 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
79% Head
  • Head 79%
  • Body 13%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
85% Distance
  • Distance 85%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 5%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
25%
of losses by finish
1 of 4
1 KO/TKO 0 Sub 3 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1594
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Alexander Hernandez
Elo 1588 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.8
+2.3 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 11 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1541
1588
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 29m
Avg fight time
13:33
Fights per year
2.1
Since last fight
4mo
Ground control
33m
vs Compare Rafa Garcia with any fighter any division · any era · honest simulation →

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Justin Gaethje C
#3 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#4 · Elo 1661
Quillan Salkilld
#5 · Elo 1652
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Rafa Garcia on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.