HonestElo
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Joe Solecki

Active #46 lightweight · Orthodox · 175 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1551 ±37
LCB 1502
Rank
#46
top 45% of division
UFC record
5-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 · Dec 3
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
Jan 11, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Dec 7, 2019 — W vs Matt Wiman Δ+35Aug 22, 2020 — W vs Austin Hubbard Δ+31Apr 10, 2021 — W vs Jim Miller Δ+31Oct 2, 2021 — L vs Jared Gordon Δ-33Jun 4, 2022 — W vs Alex Da Silva Δ+22Feb 25, 2023 — W vs Carl Deaton Δ+14Dec 2, 2023 — L vs Drakkar Klose Δ-18Jun 1, 2024 — L vs Grant Dawson Δ-12Jan 11, 2025 — L vs Nurullo Aliev Δ-18 14951531156716031639 202020212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":176.9,"elo":1535,"date":"2019-12-07","opp":"Matt Wiman","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":1,"x":142.5,"y":131.3,"elo":1566,"date":"2020-08-22","opp":"Austin Hubbard","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":248.2,"y":86.1,"elo":1597,"date":"2021-04-10","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":328.3,"y":135.6,"elo":1563,"date":"2021-10-02","opp":"Jared Gordon","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":4,"x":440.4,"y":103.8,"elo":1585,"date":"2022-06-04","opp":"Alex Da Silva","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":5,"x":562.1,"y":83.1,"elo":1599,"date":"2023-02-25","opp":"Carl Deaton","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":6,"x":690.2,"y":109.3,"elo":1581,"date":"2023-12-02","opp":"Drakkar Klose","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":7,"x":773.5,"y":127.5,"elo":1569,"date":"2024-06-01","opp":"Grant Dawson","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":153.9,"elo":1551,"date":"2025-01-11","opp":"Nurullo Aliev","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 11, 2025 Nurullo Aliev L -18
Jun 1, 2024 Grant Dawson L -12
Dec 2, 2023 Drakkar Klose L -18
Feb 25, 2023 Carl Deaton W +14
Jun 4, 2022 Alex Da Silva W +22

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.84 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
53% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.82 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
50% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.91 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
47% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
14% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.23 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
6 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
2 / 5
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
2
40% of wins
DEC
3
60% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 2 (40%) 2 Dec: 3 (60%) 3
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1555
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.6
actual 0 vs expected