HonestElo
← welterweight

Tony Ferguson

Active Retired · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 193 cm
Retired. Ratings shown are a historical snapshot at the time of the last fight.
Elo rating
1579 ±20
LCB 1553
Rank
—
—
UFC record
15-9-0
KO 3 · Sub 6 · Dec 4
Streak
-8
Δ90d -2 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Aug 3, 2024
L by Submission

Elo history

24 fights · tap & drag
Jun 4, 2011 — W vs Ramsey Nijem Δ+41Sep 24, 2011 — W vs Aaron Riley Δ+25Dec 3, 2011 — W vs Yves Edwards Δ+29May 5, 2012 — L vs Michael Johnson Δ-36Oct 19, 2013 — W vs Mike Rio Δ+27May 24, 2014 — W vs Katsunori Kikuno Δ+15Aug 30, 2014 — W vs Danny Castillo Δ+16Dec 6, 2014 — W vs Abel Trujillo Δ+16Feb 28, 2015 — W vs Gleison Tibau Δ+18Jul 15, 2015 — W vs Josh Thomson Δ+11Dec 11, 2015 — W vs Edson Barboza Δ+17Jul 13, 2016 — W vs Lando Vannata Δ+10Nov 5, 2016 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+15Oct 7, 2017 — W vs Kevin Lee Δ+20Oct 6, 2018 — W vs Anthony Pettis Δ+13Jun 8, 2019 — W vs Donald Cerrone Δ+15May 9, 2020 — L vs Justin Gaethje Δ-32Dec 12, 2020 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-18May 15, 2021 — L vs Beneil Dariush Δ-17May 7, 2022 — L vs Michael Chandler Δ-27Sep 10, 2022 — L vs Nate Diaz Δ-20Jul 29, 2023 — L vs King Green Δ-23Dec 16, 2023 — L vs Paddy Pimblett Δ-16Aug 3, 2024 — L vs Michael Chiesa Δ-18 15011574164617191791 2014201720202023 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":206.7,"elo":1541,"date":"2011-06-04","opp":"Ramsey Nijem","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":43.8,"y":188.7,"elo":1566,"date":"2011-09-24","opp":"Aaron Riley","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":2,"x":56.2,"y":167.3,"elo":1595,"date":"2011-12-03","opp":"Yves Edwards","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":83.5,"y":194.1,"elo":1559,"date":"2012-05-05","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":4,"x":177.8,"y":174,"elo":1586,"date":"2013-10-19","opp":"Mike Rio","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":5,"x":216.2,"y":162.8,"elo":1601,"date":"2014-05-24","opp":"Katsunori Kikuno","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":6,"x":233.6,"y":151.3,"elo":1617,"date":"2014-08-30","opp":"Danny Castillo","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":251,"y":139.6,"elo":1633,"date":"2014-12-06","opp":"Abel Trujillo","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":265.8,"y":126.6,"elo":1651,"date":"2015-02-28","opp":"Gleison Tibau","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":290.1,"y":118.5,"elo":1662,"date":"2015-07-15","opp":"Josh Thomson","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":10,"x":316.5,"y":106.3,"elo":1679,"date":"2015-12-11","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":11,"x":354.6,"y":99.2,"elo":1688,"date":"2016-07-13","opp":"Lando Vannata","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":12,"x":375,"y":88.2,"elo":1703,"date":"2016-11-05","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":13,"x":434.5,"y":73.6,"elo":1723,"date":"2017-10-07","opp":"Kevin Lee","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":14,"x":499,"y":64,"elo":1737,"date":"2018-10-06","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":15,"x":542.4,"y":53.3,"elo":1751,"date":"2019-06-08","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":16,"x":601.9,"y":76.7,"elo":1719,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Justin Gaethje","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":17,"x":640.4,"y":89.7,"elo":1701,"date":"2020-12-12","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":18,"x":667.7,"y":102,"elo":1685,"date":"2021-05-15","opp":"Beneil Dariush","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":19,"x":730.9,"y":122.1,"elo":1657,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Michael Chandler","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":20,"x":753.2,"y":137,"elo":1637,"date":"2022-09-10","opp":"Nate Diaz","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":21,"x":810.3,"y":153.6,"elo":1614,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"King Green","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":22,"x":835.1,"y":165,"elo":1598,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Paddy Pimblett","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":23,"x":876,"y":178.2,"elo":1580,"date":"2024-08-03","opp":"Michael Chiesa","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 3, 2024 Michael Chiesa L -18
Dec 16, 2023 Paddy Pimblett L -16
Jul 29, 2023 King Green L -23
Sep 10, 2022 Nate Diaz L -20
May 7, 2022 Michael Chandler L -27

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.52 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
46% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.02 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.36 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
35% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
66% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.81 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
0 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
9 / 15
Finish rate
KO
3
20% of wins
SUB
6
40% of wins
DEC
4
27% of wins
KO: 3 (23%) 3 Sub: 6 (46%) 6 Dec: 4 (31%) 4
Finishes by round
11 total
R1
5 45%
R2
5 45%
R3
1 9%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1580
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
13.8
actual +1 vs expected