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Tony Ferguson "El Cucuy"

Active Retired · age 42 · Orthodox · 5'11" 180 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 76" 193 cm
Retired. Ratings shown are a historical snapshot at the time of the last fight.
At a glance
  • 1 successful title defense
  • 8-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 73% of wins by KO or submission
Elo rating
1552
Global Elo 1578 ±20
Rank
—
—
UFC record
15-9-0
KO 3 · Sub 6 · Dec 4
Streak
-8
Δ90d -2 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Aug 3, 2024
Loss by Submission · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
4h 32m
Avg fight time
11:19
Title fights
2-1
Bonuses
11
Fights per year
1.8
Since last fight
1y 11mo

Honest Elo history

24 fights · tap & drag
Jun 4, 2011 — W vs Ramsey Nijem Δ+41Sep 24, 2011 — W vs Aaron Riley Δ+25Dec 3, 2011 — W vs Yves Edwards Δ+29May 5, 2012 — L vs Michael Johnson Δ-36Oct 19, 2013 — W vs Mike Rio Δ+27May 24, 2014 — W vs Katsunori Kikuno Δ+15Aug 30, 2014 — W vs Danny Castillo Δ+16Dec 6, 2014 — W vs Abel Trujillo Δ+16Feb 28, 2015 — W vs Gleison Tibau Δ+18Jul 15, 2015 — W vs Josh Thomson Δ+11Dec 11, 2015 — W vs Edson Barboza Δ+17Jul 13, 2016 — W vs Lando Vannata Δ+10Nov 5, 2016 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+15Oct 7, 2017 — W vs Kevin Lee Δ+20Oct 6, 2018 — W vs Anthony Pettis Δ+13Jun 8, 2019 — W vs Donald Cerrone Δ+15May 9, 2020 — L vs Justin Gaethje Δ-32Dec 12, 2020 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-18May 15, 2021 — L vs Beneil Dariush Δ-17May 7, 2022 — L vs Michael Chandler Δ-27Sep 10, 2022 — L vs Nate Diaz Δ-20Jul 29, 2023 — L vs King Green Δ-23Dec 16, 2023 — L vs Paddy Pimblett Δ-16Aug 3, 2024 — L vs Michael Chiesa Δ-18 1450150015501600165017001750 2014201720202023 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":342.8,"elo":1513,"date":"2011-06-04","opp":"Ramsey Nijem","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":106.8,"y":316.5,"elo":1538,"date":"2011-09-24","opp":"Aaron Riley","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":2,"x":117.2,"y":285.3,"elo":1567,"date":"2011-12-03","opp":"Yves Edwards","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":140.3,"y":324.3,"elo":1530,"date":"2012-05-05","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":4,"x":220,"y":295.1,"elo":1558,"date":"2013-10-19","opp":"Mike Rio","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":5,"x":252.4,"y":278.8,"elo":1573,"date":"2014-05-24","opp":"Katsunori Kikuno","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":6,"x":267.1,"y":262.1,"elo":1589,"date":"2014-08-30","opp":"Danny Castillo","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":281.8,"y":245,"elo":1605,"date":"2014-12-06","opp":"Abel Trujillo","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":294.4,"y":226,"elo":1623,"date":"2015-02-28","opp":"Gleison Tibau","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":314.9,"y":214.2,"elo":1634,"date":"2015-07-15","opp":"Josh Thomson","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":10,"x":337.2,"y":196.5,"elo":1650,"date":"2015-12-11","opp":"Edson Barboza","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":11,"x":369.4,"y":186.1,"elo":1660,"date":"2016-07-13","opp":"Lando Vannata","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":12,"x":386.6,"y":170,"elo":1675,"date":"2016-11-05","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":13,"x":436.9,"y":148.8,"elo":1695,"date":"2017-10-07","opp":"Kevin Lee","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":14,"x":491.4,"y":134.7,"elo":1708,"date":"2018-10-06","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":15,"x":528.1,"y":119.1,"elo":1723,"date":"2019-06-08","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":16,"x":578.4,"y":153.3,"elo":1691,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Justin Gaethje","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":17,"x":610.9,"y":172.2,"elo":1673,"date":"2020-12-12","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":18,"x":633.9,"y":190.2,"elo":1656,"date":"2021-05-15","opp":"Beneil Dariush","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":19,"x":687.4,"y":219.4,"elo":1629,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Michael Chandler","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":20,"x":706.2,"y":241.1,"elo":1608,"date":"2022-09-10","opp":"Nate Diaz","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":21,"x":754.5,"y":265.4,"elo":1586,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"King Green","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":22,"x":775.4,"y":282,"elo":1570,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Paddy Pimblett","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":23,"x":810,"y":301.2,"elo":1552,"date":"2024-08-03","opp":"Michael Chiesa","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 3, 2024 Michael Chiesa L -18
Dec 16, 2023 Paddy Pimblett L -16
Jul 29, 2023 King Green L -23
Sep 10, 2022 Nate Diaz L -20
May 7, 2022 Michael Chandler L -27

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
9 / 15
Finish rate
KO
3
20% of wins
SUB
6
40% of wins
DEC
4
27% of wins
KO: 3 (23%) 3 Sub: 6 (46%) 6 Dec: 4 (31%) 4
Finishes by round
11 total
R1
5 45%
R2
5 45%
R3
1 9%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1332 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
60% Head
  • Head 60%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 20%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
91% Distance
  • Distance 91%
  • Clinch 2%
  • Ground 7%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
56%
of losses by finish
5 of 9
2 KO/TKO 3 Sub 4 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1580
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
6
of 15 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Donald Cerrone
Elo 1705 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
13.8
+1.1 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 24 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1607
Notable wins
Donald Cerrone 1705 Rafael Dos Anjos 1669 Kevin Lee 1656 Edson Barboza 1629 Anthony Pettis 1623 Gleison Tibau 1622

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Tony Ferguson on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.