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Rafael Fiziev

Active #30 lightweight · Switch · 173 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1585 ±38
LCB 1535
Rank
#30
top 29% of division
UFC record
7-5-0
KO 3 · Sub 0 · Dec 4
Streak
-1
Δ90d -21 · Δ1y -5
Last fight
Jan 31, 2026
L by KO

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
Apr 20, 2019 — L vs Magomed Mustafaev Δ-30Oct 26, 2019 — W vs Alex White Δ+29Jul 18, 2020 — W vs Marc Diakiese Δ+32Dec 12, 2020 — W vs Renato Moicano Δ+39Aug 7, 2021 — W vs King Green Δ+29Dec 4, 2021 — W vs Brad Riddell Δ+19Jul 9, 2022 — W vs Rafael Dos Anjos Δ+21Mar 18, 2023 — L vs Justin Gaethje Δ-17Sep 23, 2023 — L vs Mateusz Gamrot Δ-18Mar 8, 2025 — L vs Justin Gaethje Δ-14Jun 21, 2025 — W vs Ignacio Bahamondes Δ+16Jan 31, 2026 — L vs Mauricio Ruffy Δ-21 14301492155416161679 202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":201.8,"elo":1470,"date":"2019-04-20","opp":"Magomed Mustafaev","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":1,"x":89,"y":177,"elo":1499,"date":"2019-10-26","opp":"Alex White","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":180.4,"y":150.1,"elo":1531,"date":"2020-07-18","opp":"Marc Diakiese","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":3,"x":231,"y":116.9,"elo":1570,"date":"2020-12-12","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":4,"x":312.8,"y":92.5,"elo":1598,"date":"2021-08-07","opp":"King Green","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":5,"x":353.7,"y":76.2,"elo":1617,"date":"2021-12-04","opp":"Brad Riddell","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":6,"x":428.3,"y":58.2,"elo":1639,"date":"2022-07-09","opp":"Rafael Dos Anjos","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":7,"x":515,"y":72.5,"elo":1622,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Justin Gaethje","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":8,"x":580,"y":88.2,"elo":1603,"date":"2023-09-23","opp":"Mateusz Gamrot","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":9,"x":762.9,"y":100.2,"elo":1589,"date":"2025-03-08","opp":"Justin Gaethje","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":10,"x":799,"y":86.2,"elo":1606,"date":"2025-06-21","opp":"Ignacio Bahamondes","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":104,"elo":1585,"date":"2026-01-31","opp":"Mauricio Ruffy","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 31, 2026 Mauricio Ruffy L -21
Jun 21, 2025 Ignacio Bahamondes W +16
Mar 8, 2025 Justin Gaethje L -14
Sep 23, 2023 Mateusz Gamrot L -18
Mar 18, 2023 Justin Gaethje L -17

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.26 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
53% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.38 avg 3.35
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
50% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.75 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
67% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
90% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
43%
3 / 7
Finish rate
KO
3
43% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
4
57% of wins
KO: 3 (43%) 3 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 4 (57%) 4
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
1 33%
R2
R3
1 33%
R4
R5
1 33%

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1609
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.7
actual +1 vs expected