HonestElo
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Terrance McKinney

Active #45 lightweight · Switch · 180 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1551 ±37
LCB 1504
Rank
#45
top 44% of division
UFC record
8-5-0
KO 5 · Sub 3 · Dec 0
Streak
+1
Δ90d +17 · Δ1y +17
Last fight
Mar 28, 2026
W by KO

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Jun 12, 2021 — W vs Matt Frevola Δ+34Feb 26, 2022 — W vs Fares Ziam Δ+33Mar 12, 2022 — L vs Drew Dober Δ-34Aug 6, 2022 — W vs Erick Gonzalez Δ+28Jan 21, 2023 — L vs Ismael Bonfim Δ-39Jul 15, 2023 — L vs Nazim Sadykhov Δ-18Aug 12, 2023 — W vs Mike Breeden Δ+15Oct 14, 2023 — W vs Brendon Marotte Δ+17May 11, 2024 — L vs Esteban Ribovics Δ-20Feb 1, 2025 — W vs Damir Hadzovic Δ+19Jun 28, 2025 — W vs Viacheslav Borshchev Δ+16Dec 6, 2025 — L vs Chris Duncan Δ-16Mar 28, 2026 — W vs Kyle Nelson Δ+17 14631499153515711607 20222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":131.4,"elo":1534,"date":"2021-06-12","opp":"Matt Frevola","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":1,"x":150.1,"y":82.9,"elo":1567,"date":"2022-02-26","opp":"Fares Ziam","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":156.9,"y":133.8,"elo":1533,"date":"2022-03-12","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":3,"x":228.5,"y":93.2,"elo":1560,"date":"2022-08-06","opp":"Erick Gonzalez","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":310.3,"y":150.4,"elo":1521,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Ismael Bonfim","result":"L","delta":-39},{"i":5,"x":395.5,"y":177.1,"elo":1503,"date":"2023-07-15","opp":"Nazim Sadykhov","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":6,"x":409.1,"y":154.7,"elo":1518,"date":"2023-08-12","opp":"Mike Breeden","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":439.8,"y":129,"elo":1536,"date":"2023-10-14","opp":"Brendon Marotte","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":542,"y":158.7,"elo":1516,"date":"2024-05-11","opp":"Esteban Ribovics","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":9,"x":671.5,"y":131.1,"elo":1534,"date":"2025-02-01","opp":"Damir Hadzovic","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":743.1,"y":107.1,"elo":1551,"date":"2025-06-28","opp":"Viacheslav Borshchev","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":821.5,"y":130.4,"elo":1535,"date":"2025-12-06","opp":"Chris Duncan","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":106.1,"elo":1551,"date":"2026-03-28","opp":"Kyle Nelson","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 28, 2026 Kyle Nelson W +17
Dec 6, 2025 Chris Duncan L -16
Jun 28, 2025 Viacheslav Borshchev W +16
Feb 1, 2025 Damir Hadzovic W +19
May 11, 2024 Esteban Ribovics L -20

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.05 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
56% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.61 avg 3.39
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
42% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.20 avg 1.61
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
43% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
73% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.00 avg 0.52
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
8 / 8
Finish rate
KO
5
63% of wins
SUB
3
38% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 5 (63%) 5 Sub: 3 (38%) 3 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
8 total
R1
8 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1524
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.9
actual +1 vs expected