Honest Elo matchups
UFC Events
Every UFC card we track, with Honest Elo Monte Carlo simulations for every matched bout. Click any card to open the breakdown — fight-by-fight stat comparisons, common opponents, and the simulation gauge.
Next event
Sat, Aug 22, 2026 AH GR
Sacramento, California, USA
UFC Fight Night
Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
13 bouts · Honest Elo Monte Carlo for every booked matchup
Card strength 1599 · full 1557 · 17 ranked
Upcoming
13 cards UN SY
Sat, Aug 29
Shanghai, China
UFC Fight Night
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Card strength 1585 · full 1541 · 15 ranked
Card strength 1585 Full card 1541 · 15 ranked
→ DH SP
Sat, Sep 5
Paris, Ile-de-France, France
UFC Fight Night
Parnasse vs. Hooker
Card strength 1603 · full 1562 · 19 ranked
Card strength 1603 Full card 1562 · 19 ranked
→ YR JS
Sat, Sep 12
Glendale, Arizona, USA
UFC Fight Night Glendale
Yair Rodriguez vs. Jean Silva
Card strength 1633 · full 1581 · 19 ranked
Card strength 1633 Full card 1581 · 19 ranked
→ JV AP
Sat, Sep 19
Los Angeles, California, USA
UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Card strength 1635 · full 1571 · 21 ranked
Card strength 1635 Full card 1571 · 21 ranked
→ RR RB
Sat, Sep 26
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
UFC Fight Night Nevada
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos
Card strength 1580 · full 1548 · 14 ranked
Card strength 1580 Full card 1548 · 14 ranked
→ DF PT
Sat, Oct 3
Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
UFC 332 Salt Lake City
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott
Card strength 1581 · full 1555 · 11 ranked
Card strength 1581 Full card 1555 · 11 ranked
→ PT DF
Sat, Oct 3
Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
UFC 332
Payton Talbott vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Card strength 1581 · full 1555 · 11 ranked
Card strength 1581 Full card 1555 · 11 ranked
→ MW OT
Sat, Oct 10
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
UFC Fight Night
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Card strength 1521 · full 1502 · 9 ranked
Card strength 1521 Full card 1502 · 9 ranked
→ JB MM
Sat, Oct 17
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
UFC Fight Night
Buckley vs. Malott
Card strength 1576 · full 1540 · 14 ranked
Card strength 1576 Full card 1540 · 14 ranked
→ AV ME
Sat, Oct 24
Abu Dhabi, UAE
UFC 333
Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Card strength 1685 · full 1631 · 17 ranked
Card strength 1685 Full card 1631 · 17 ranked
→ JE JL
Sat, Oct 31
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
UFC Fight Night 292
Julian Erosa vs. Jeongyeong Lee
Card forming
→
GB SB
Sat, Nov 7
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
UFC Fight Night 293
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady
Card forming
→
? ?
Sat, Nov 7
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
UFC Fight Night 293
Card forming
→
Past
14 cards Sat, Aug 15 UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry → Sat, Aug 8 UFC Fight Night Gamrot vs. Salkilld → Sat, Aug 1 UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez → Sat, Jul 25 UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov → Sat, Jul 18 UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman → Sat, Jul 11 UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 → Sat, Jun 27 UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres → Sat, Jun 20 UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi → Sun, Jun 14 UFC Freedom 250 → Sat, Jun 6 UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim → Sat, May 30 UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo → Sat, May 16 UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa → Sat, May 9 UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland → Sat, May 2 UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates →
How Card strength works
The average Global Elo of a card’s top-10 rated fighters — roughly its 5-bout main card. Top-10, not the whole card, because prelims drag every event toward the UFC mean; the marquee depth is what actually separates a stacked card from a thin one.
- · Full card — the same average across every rated fighter on the bill.
- · Debutants with no Elo rating yet are excluded from both figures.
- · Fewer than 5 rated fighters → “Card forming” instead of a number (a near-empty just-announced card can’t be judged yet).