Honest Elo matchups
UFC Events
Every UFC card we track, with Honest Elo Monte Carlo simulations for every matched bout. Click any card to open the breakdown — fight-by-fight stat comparisons, common opponents, and the simulation gauge.
Next event
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 RF MT
Baku, Azerbaijan
UFC Fight Night
Fiziev vs. Torres
13 bouts · Honest Elo Monte Carlo for every booked matchup
Card strength 1595 · full 1555 · 17 ranked
Upcoming
6 cards CM MH
Sat, Jul 11
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Card strength 1649 · full 1583 · 20 ranked
Card strength 1649 Full card 1583 · 20 ranked
→ ? ?
Sat, Jul 18
Oklahoma City, USA
UFC Fight Night Oklahoma
Card strength 1571 · full 1537 · 13 ranked
Card strength 1571 Full card 1537 · 13 ranked
→ MA KR
Sat, Jul 25
Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
UFC Fight Night
Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr
Card strength 1593 · full 1554 · 10 ranked
Card strength 1593 Full card 1554 · 10 ranked
→ AD JW
Sat, Aug 1
Belgrade, Serbia
UFC Fight Night
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Card strength 1557 · full 1510 · 14 ranked
Card strength 1557 Full card 1510 · 14 ranked
→ SA GP
Sat, Aug 8
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
UFC Fight Night Las Vegas
Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat
Card strength 1512 · full 1512 · 5 ranked
Card strength 1512 Full card 1512 · 5 ranked
→ IM IM
Sat, Aug 15
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Card strength 1633 · full 1633 · 10 ranked
Card strength 1633 Full card 1633 · 10 ranked
→ Past
7 cards Sat, Jun 20 UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi → Sun, Jun 14 UFC Freedom 250 → Sat, Jun 6 UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim → Sat, May 30 UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo → Sat, May 16 UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa → Sat, May 9 UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland → Sat, May 2 UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates →
How Card strength works
The average Global Elo of a card’s top-10 rated fighters — roughly its 5-bout main card. Top-10, not the whole card, because prelims drag every event toward the UFC mean; the marquee depth is what actually separates a stacked card from a thin one.
- · Full card — the same average across every rated fighter on the bill.
- · Debutants with no Elo rating yet are excluded from both figures.
- · Fewer than 5 rated fighters → “Card forming” instead of a number (a near-empty just-announced card can’t be judged yet).