HonestElo
← lightweight

Charles Oliveira

Active #2 lightweight · Orthodox · 178 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1740 ±41
LCB 1687
Rank
#2
top 1% of division
UFC record
25-11-0
KO 4 · Sub 17 · Dec 4
Streak
+2
Δ90d +17 · Δ1y +9
Last fight
Mar 7, 2026
W by Decision

Elo history

36 fights · tap & drag
Aug 1, 2010 — W vs Darren Elkins Δ+37Sep 15, 2010 — W vs Efrain Escudero Δ+35Dec 11, 2010 — L vs Jim Miller Δ-27Aug 14, 2011 — L vs Donald Cerrone Δ-31Jan 28, 2012 — W vs Eric Wisely Δ+32Jun 1, 2012 — W vs Jonathan Brookins Δ+18Sep 22, 2012 — L vs Cub Swanson Δ-19Jul 6, 2013 — L vs Frankie Edgar Δ-12Feb 15, 2014 — W vs Andy Ogle Δ+15Jun 28, 2014 — W vs Hatsu Hioki Δ+16Dec 12, 2014 — W vs Jeremy Stephens Δ+16May 30, 2015 — W vs Nik Lentz Δ+21Aug 23, 2015 — L vs Max Holloway Δ-17Dec 19, 2015 — W vs Myles Jury Δ+22Aug 27, 2016 — L vs Anthony Pettis Δ-18Nov 5, 2016 — L vs Ricardo Lamas Δ-17Apr 8, 2017 — W vs Will Brooks Δ+15Dec 2, 2017 — L vs Paul Felder Δ-18Jun 9, 2018 — W vs Clay Guida Δ+19Sep 22, 2018 — W vs Christos Giagos Δ+13Dec 15, 2018 — W vs Jim Miller Δ+18Feb 2, 2019 — W vs David Teymur Δ+20May 18, 2019 — W vs Nik Lentz Δ+18Nov 16, 2019 — W vs Jared Gordon Δ+12Mar 14, 2020 — W vs Kevin Lee Δ+17Dec 12, 2020 — W vs Tony Ferguson Δ+18May 15, 2021 — W vs Michael Chandler Δ+13Dec 11, 2021 — W vs Dustin Poirier Δ+25May 7, 2022 — W vs Justin Gaethje Δ+13Oct 22, 2022 — L vs Islam Makhachev Δ-26Jun 10, 2023 — W vs Beneil Dariush Δ+18Apr 13, 2024 — L vs Arman Tsarukyan Δ-20Nov 16, 2024 — W vs Michael Chandler Δ+8Jun 28, 2025 — L vs Ilia Topuria Δ-23Oct 11, 2025 — W vs Mateusz Gamrot Δ+16Mar 7, 2026 — W vs Max Holloway Δ+17 14741553163217111790 20132016201920222025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":193.8,"elo":1537,"date":"2010-08-01","opp":"Darren Elkins","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":1,"x":30.7,"y":170.2,"elo":1572,"date":"2010-09-15","opp":"Efrain Escudero","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":2,"x":43.7,"y":188.2,"elo":1545,"date":"2010-12-11","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":3,"x":80.5,"y":209.2,"elo":1514,"date":"2011-08-14","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":4,"x":105.5,"y":188,"elo":1545,"date":"2012-01-28","opp":"Eric Wisely","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":5,"x":124.2,"y":175.8,"elo":1564,"date":"2012-06-01","opp":"Jonathan Brookins","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":141.1,"y":188.8,"elo":1544,"date":"2012-09-22","opp":"Cub Swanson","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":184,"y":197.2,"elo":1532,"date":"2013-07-06","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":8,"x":217.5,"y":187,"elo":1547,"date":"2014-02-15","opp":"Andy Ogle","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":237.4,"y":176.4,"elo":1563,"date":"2014-06-28","opp":"Hatsu Hioki","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":262.4,"y":166,"elo":1578,"date":"2014-12-12","opp":"Jeremy Stephens","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":287.7,"y":152.3,"elo":1599,"date":"2015-05-30","opp":"Nik Lentz","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":12,"x":300.4,"y":163.9,"elo":1581,"date":"2015-08-23","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":13,"x":318,"y":149.4,"elo":1603,"date":"2015-12-19","opp":"Myles Jury","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":14,"x":355.7,"y":161.6,"elo":1585,"date":"2016-08-27","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":15,"x":366.2,"y":173.2,"elo":1567,"date":"2016-11-05","opp":"Ricardo Lamas","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":16,"x":389.2,"y":163.1,"elo":1583,"date":"2017-04-08","opp":"Will Brooks","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":17,"x":424.8,"y":175.3,"elo":1564,"date":"2017-12-02","opp":"Paul Felder","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":18,"x":453.1,"y":162.8,"elo":1583,"date":"2018-06-09","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":19,"x":468.8,"y":154.1,"elo":1596,"date":"2018-09-22","opp":"Christos Giagos","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":20,"x":481.3,"y":141.9,"elo":1614,"date":"2018-12-15","opp":"Jim Miller","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":21,"x":488.7,"y":128.5,"elo":1634,"date":"2019-02-02","opp":"David Teymur","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":22,"x":504.4,"y":116.3,"elo":1653,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Nik Lentz","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":23,"x":531.6,"y":108.5,"elo":1664,"date":"2019-11-16","opp":"Jared Gordon","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":24,"x":549.4,"y":97.1,"elo":1681,"date":"2020-03-14","opp":"Kevin Lee","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":25,"x":590.2,"y":85.2,"elo":1699,"date":"2020-12-12","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":26,"x":613.2,"y":76.3,"elo":1712,"date":"2021-05-15","opp":"Michael Chandler","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":27,"x":644.6,"y":59.5,"elo":1737,"date":"2021-12-11","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":28,"x":666.6,"y":50.8,"elo":1750,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Justin Gaethje","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":29,"x":691.8,"y":68,"elo":1725,"date":"2022-10-22","opp":"Islam Makhachev","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":30,"x":726.3,"y":56.1,"elo":1742,"date":"2023-06-10","opp":"Beneil Dariush","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":31,"x":772.4,"y":69.4,"elo":1723,"date":"2024-04-13","opp":"Arman Tsarukyan","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":32,"x":804.8,"y":64,"elo":1731,"date":"2024-11-16","opp":"Michael Chandler","result":"W","delta":8},{"i":33,"x":838.3,"y":79.3,"elo":1708,"date":"2025-06-28","opp":"Ilia Topuria","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":34,"x":854,"y":69,"elo":1723,"date":"2025-10-11","opp":"Mateusz Gamrot","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":35,"x":876,"y":57.8,"elo":1740,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 7, 2026 Max Holloway W +17
Oct 11, 2025 Mateusz Gamrot W +16
Jun 28, 2025 Ilia Topuria L -23
Nov 16, 2024 Michael Chandler W +8
Apr 13, 2024 Arman Tsarukyan L -20

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.49 avg 4.11
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
56% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.39 avg 3.42
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.78 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
40% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
52% avg 74%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.95 avg 0.47
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
84%
21 / 25
Finish rate
KO
4
16% of wins
SUB
17
68% of wins
DEC
4
16% of wins
KO: 4 (16%) 4 Sub: 17 (68%) 17 Dec: 4 (16%) 4
Finishes by round
21 total
R1
9 43%
R2
7 33%
R3
5 24%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1663
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
18.9
actual +6 vs expected