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Matheus Camilo "Jaguar"

Active #57 lightweight · age 25 · Orthodox · 5'10" 178 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 69" 175 cm
Upcoming bout Sat, Oct 10
vs Jai Herbert · UFC Fight Night
At a glance
Elo rating
1476
Global Elo 1537 ±47
Rank
#57
top 62% of division
UFC record
2-1-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
+2
Δ90d +42 · Δ1y +72
Last fight
Jun 27, 2026
Win by KO · R1

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
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The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Honest Elo history

3 fights · tap & drag
May 17, 2025 — L vs Gabe Green Δ-35Nov 15, 2025 — W vs Viacheslav Borshchev Δ+30Jun 27, 2026 — W vs Nazim Sadykhov Δ+42 1380140014201440146014801500 2026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":345.5,"elo":1404,"date":"2025-05-17","opp":"Gabe Green","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":1,"x":412.8,"y":265.7,"elo":1434,"date":"2025-11-15","opp":"Viacheslav Borshchev","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":810,"y":153.2,"elo":1476,"date":"2026-06-27","opp":"Nazim Sadykhov","result":"W","delta":42}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 27, 2026 Nazim Sadykhov W +42
Nov 15, 2025 Viacheslav Borshchev W +30
May 17, 2025 Gabe Green L -35
How the wins come
  • 1 win by knockout 50%
  • 1 win by decision 50%

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
—
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
1 / 2
Finish rate
KO
1
50% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
50% of wins
KO: 1 (50%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (50%) 1
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
1 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 56 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 18%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
91% Distance
  • Distance 91%
  • Clinch 2%
  • Ground 7%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
1 of 1
0 KO/TKO 1 Sub 0 Dec Never been KO'd

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1517
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Nazim Sadykhov
Elo 1592 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
1.4
+0.6 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 3 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1481
1592
Career at a glance
Octagon time
25m
Avg fight time
8:25
Fights per year
2.7
Since last fight
2mo
vs Compare Matheus Camilo with any fighter any division · any era · honest simulation →

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Justin Gaethje C
#3 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#4 · Elo 1661
Quillan Salkilld
#5 · Elo 1652
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Matheus Camilo on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.