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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Parkin +102 Elo for a ~35 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Parkin

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Walker

Finishes 88% of wins (6 KO · 1 SUB; 75% of wins end in round 1).

Walker

5 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Form

Both enter off a loss (Mar 2025 / Apr 2026).

Tale of the tape

4-1-0 UFC record 8-7-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 6 · Sub 1
-1 Streak -1
30 Age 34
6'4" 193 cm Height 6'6" 198 cm
79" 201 cm Reach 82" 208 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1578 Global Elo 1562
1541 Elo rating 1511
Mick Parkin — Notable
At a glance
Johnny Walker — Notable
At a glance
  • 88% of wins by KO or submission
  • 75% of wins finished in round 1
  • UFC veteran since 2018

Mick Parkin — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 300 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 8%
  • Leg 31%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
91% Distance
  • Distance 91%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 5%

Johnny Walker — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 401 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
47% Head
  • Head 47%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 43%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
70% Distance
  • Distance 70%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 23%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.73
3.70
div avg 4.91
50%
53%
div avg 53%
4.01
2.91
div avg 3.51
60%
49%
div avg 51%
0.95
0.28
div avg 1.67
36%
40%
div avg 39%
75%
50%
div avg 74%
0.00
0.42
div avg 0.72
2
1
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Mick Parkin
25% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Johnny Walker
finished 57%
4 of 7 losses
Johnny Walker
88% finish rate
KO 6 · Sub 1
can finish?
Mick Parkin
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Johnny Walker has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1623 vs 1534, 2 quality wins to 0.

Mick Parkin red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1534
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Mohammed Usman
Elo 1579 at fight time
Expected wins
2.7
+1.3 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1528
1607
Johnny Walker blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1623
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Ryan Spann
Elo 1618 at fight time
Expected wins
7.0
+1.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 16 fights
1542
1621
Corner A recent form
Mick Parkin
Corner B recent form
Johnny Walker
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Mick Parkin & Johnny Walker on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.