King Green vs Jeremy Stephens — Honest Elo Matchup & Stats Comparison

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

CORNER A

King Green

17-13-1 UFC record
KO 5 · Sub 3 Finishes
-1 Streak
40 Age
5'10"178 cm Height
71"180 cm Reach
Orthodox Stance
1600 Global Elo
1555 Elo Rating

Notable

#5 in lightweight for Striking Defense
UFC veteran since 2013

CORNER B

Jeremy Stephens

15-20-0 UFC record
KO 8 · Sub 0 Finishes
-7 Streak
40 Age
5'9"175 cm Height
71"180 cm Reach
Orthodox Stance
1484 Global Elo
1448 Elo Rating

Notable

7-fight losing streak
53% of wins by KO/TKO
UFC veteran since 2007

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Other fights on this card · 12

Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland Main event · middleweight TITLE Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira flyweight TITLE Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta heavyweight Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley welterweight Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz middleweight Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov welterweight Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki lightweight Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon lightweight Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio middleweight Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis featherweight Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos middleweight Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa flyweight

Notable

division-context facts

Green

9 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Stephens

10 career post-fight bonuses — a perennial bonus magnet.

Form

Both enter off a loss (Oct 2026 / May 2026).

Tale of the tape

17-13-1	UFC record	15-20-0
KO 5 · Sub 3	Finishes	KO 8 · Sub 0
-1	Streak	-7
40	Age	40
5'10" 178 cm	Height	5'9" 175 cm
71" 180 cm	Reach	71" 180 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
1600	Global Elo	1484
1555	Elo rating	1448

King Green — Notable ▼

At a glance

Jeremy Stephens — Notable ▼

At a glance

7-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
53% of wins by KO/TKO
UFC veteran since 2007

King Green — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 2151 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg

58% Head

Head 58%
Body 25%
Leg 17%

Positions distance · clinch · ground

81% Distance

Distance 81%
Clinch 8%
Ground 10%

Jeremy Stephens — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1281 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg

59% Head

Head 59%
Body 17%
Leg 24%

Positions distance · clinch · ground

74% Distance

Distance 74%
Clinch 10%
Ground 17%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

6.59

3.13

div avg 4.56

54%

41%

div avg 51%

3.76

3.25

div avg 3.65

61%

58%

div avg 53%

1.24

1.10

div avg 1.98

45%

38%

div avg 38%

69%

62%

div avg 72%

0.28

0.40

div avg 0.69

div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

King Green

47% finish rate

KO 5 · Sub 3

can finish?

Jeremy Stephens

finished 35%

7 of 20 losses

Jeremy Stephens

53% finish rate

KO 8 · Sub 0

can finish?

King Green

finished 54%

7 of 13 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Jeremy Stephens has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1566 vs 1525, 3 quality wins to 3.

King Green red corner

Avg opp Elo (last 5)

1525

UFC level

Quality wins (1600+)

of 17 UFC wins

Toughest win

Grant Dawson

Elo 1689 at fight time

Expected wins

15.7

+1.3 above schedule

Opponent Elo over career · 32 fights

1568

1563

Notable wins

Grant Dawson 1689 Tony Ferguson 1637 Jim Miller 1626

Jeremy Stephens blue corner

Avg opp Elo (last 5)

1566

UFC level

Quality wins (1600+)

of 15 UFC wins

Toughest win

Renan Barao

Elo 1650 at fight time

Expected wins

16.2

−1.2 below schedule

Opponent Elo over career · 36 fights

1552

1592

Notable wins

Renan Barao 1650 Dennis Bermudez 1605 Darren Elkins 1603

Corner A recent form

King Green

L Esteban Ribovics KO/TKO · R1

Oct 3, 2026
W Terrance McKinney KO/TKO · R1

Jul 11, 2026
W Jeremy Stephens Submission · R1

May 9, 2026
W Daniel Zellhuber KO/TKO · R2

Feb 28, 2026
W Lance Gibson Jr. Decision - Split

Dec 13, 2025
L Mauricio Ruffy KO/TKO · R1

Mar 8, 2025
L Paddy Pimblett Submission · R1

Jul 27, 2024
W Jim Miller Decision - Unanimous

Apr 13, 2024
L Jalin Turner KO/TKO · R1

Dec 2, 2023
W Grant Dawson KO/TKO · R1

Oct 7, 2023
W Tony Ferguson Submission · R3

Jul 29, 2023
NC Jared Gordon Could Not Continue

Apr 22, 2023
L Drew Dober KO/TKO · R2

Dec 17, 2022
L Islam Makhachev KO/TKO · R1

Feb 26, 2022
W Nasrat Haqparast Decision - Unanimous

Feb 12, 2022
W Al Iaquinta KO/TKO · R1

Nov 6, 2021
L Rafael Fiziev Decision - Unanimous

Aug 7, 2021
L Thiago Moises Decision - Unanimous

Oct 31, 2020
W Alan Patrick Decision - Unanimous

Sep 12, 2020
W Lando Vannata Decision - Unanimous

Aug 1, 2020
W Clay Guida Decision - Unanimous

Jun 20, 2020
L Francisco Trinaldo Decision - Unanimous

Nov 16, 2019
L Drakkar Klose Decision - Unanimous

Dec 15, 2018
W Erik Koch Decision - Unanimous

Jan 27, 2018
D Lando Vannata Decision - Split

Oct 7, 2017
L Rashid Magomedov Decision - Split

Apr 15, 2017
L Dustin Poirier KO/TKO · R1

Jun 4, 2016
L Edson Barboza Decision - Unanimous

Nov 22, 2014
W Josh Thomson Decision - Split

Jul 26, 2014
W Pat Healy Decision - Unanimous

Dec 14, 2013
W James Krause KO/TKO · R1

Nov 6, 2013
W Jacob Volkmann Submission · R3

Feb 2, 2013

Corner B recent form

Jeremy Stephens

L King Green Submission · R1

May 9, 2026
L Mason Jones Decision - Unanimous

May 3, 2025
L Mateusz Gamrot Submission · R1

Jul 17, 2021
L Calvin Kattar KO/TKO · R2

May 9, 2020
L Yair Rodriguez Decision - Unanimous

Oct 18, 2019
NC Yair Rodriguez Could Not Continue

Sep 21, 2019
L Zabit Magomedsharipov Decision - Unanimous

Mar 2, 2019
L Jose Aldo KO/TKO · R1

Jul 28, 2018
W Josh Emmett KO/TKO · R2

Feb 24, 2018
W Dooho Choi KO/TKO · R2

Jan 14, 2018
W Gilbert Melendez Decision - Unanimous

Sep 9, 2017
L Renato Moicano Decision - Split

Apr 15, 2017
L Frankie Edgar Decision - Unanimous

Nov 12, 2016
W Renan Barao Decision - Unanimous

May 29, 2016
L Max Holloway Decision - Unanimous

Dec 12, 2015
W Dennis Bermudez KO/TKO · R3

Jul 11, 2015
L Charles Oliveira Decision - Unanimous

Dec 12, 2014
L Cub Swanson Decision - Unanimous

Jun 28, 2014
W Darren Elkins Decision - Unanimous

Jan 25, 2014
W Rony Jason KO/TKO · R1

Nov 9, 2013
W Estevan Payan Decision - Unanimous

May 25, 2013
L Yves Edwards KO/TKO · R1

Dec 8, 2012
L Donald Cerrone Decision - Unanimous

May 15, 2012
L Anthony Pettis Decision - Split

Oct 8, 2011
W Danny Downes Decision - Unanimous

Jun 4, 2011
W Marcus Davis KO/TKO · R3

Jan 1, 2011
L Melvin Guillard Decision - Split

Sep 25, 2010
W Sam Stout Decision - Split

May 8, 2010
W Justin Buchholz TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · R1

Sep 16, 2009
L Gleison Tibau Decision - Unanimous

Apr 1, 2009
L Joe Lauzon Submission · R2

Feb 7, 2009
W Rafael Dos Anjos KO/TKO · R3

Nov 15, 2008
L Spencer Fisher Decision - Unanimous

Jun 21, 2008
W Cole Miller KO/TKO · R2

Jan 23, 2008
W Diego Saraiva Decision - Unanimous

Sep 22, 2007
L Din Thomas Submission · R2

May 26, 2007

Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from King Green & Jeremy Stephens on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.