HonestElo
← lightweight

Paddy Pimblett

Active #8 lightweight
Elo rating
1655 ±25
LCB 1622
Rank
#8
top 7% of division
UFC record
7-1-0
KO 2 · Sub 3 · Dec 2
Streak
-1
Δ90d -21 · Δ1y -10
Last fight
Jan 24, 2026
L by Decision

Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Sep 4, 2021 — W vs Luigi Vendramini Δ+31Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Kazula Vargas Δ+30Jul 23, 2022 — W vs Jordan Leavitt Δ+33Dec 10, 2022 — W vs Jared Gordon Δ+26Dec 16, 2023 — W vs Tony Ferguson Δ+28Jul 27, 2024 — W vs King Green Δ+16Apr 12, 2025 — W vs Michael Chandler Δ+11Jan 24, 2026 — L vs Justin Gaethje Δ-21 14911548160416601716 20222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":198.3,"elo":1531,"date":"2021-09-04","opp":"Luigi Vendramini","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":1,"x":128.2,"y":170,"elo":1561,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Kazula Vargas","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":195.1,"y":138.5,"elo":1595,"date":"2022-07-23","opp":"Jordan Leavitt","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":269.6,"y":113.8,"elo":1621,"date":"2022-12-10","opp":"Jared Gordon","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":4,"x":466.7,"y":87.2,"elo":1649,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":585.8,"y":72.3,"elo":1665,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"King Green","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":723.5,"y":61.7,"elo":1676,"date":"2025-04-12","opp":"Michael Chandler","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":7,"x":876,"y":81.4,"elo":1655,"date":"2026-01-24","opp":"Justin Gaethje","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 24, 2026 Justin Gaethje L -21
Apr 12, 2025 Michael Chandler W +11
Jul 27, 2024 King Green W +16
Dec 16, 2023 Tony Ferguson W +28
Dec 10, 2022 Jared Gordon W +26

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.05 avg 4.02
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
53% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.58 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
43% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.63 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
21% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
44% avg 74%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.11 avg 0.50
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
71%
5 / 7
Finish rate
KO
2
29% of wins
SUB
3
43% of wins
DEC
2
29% of wins
KO: 2 (29%) 2 Sub: 3 (43%) 3 Dec: 2 (29%) 2
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
3 60%
R2
1 20%
R3
1 20%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1592
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.4
actual +3 vs expected