HonestElo
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✓ Jose Ochoa won · by Decision · R3
flyweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
May 9, 2026 · Newark, New Jersey, USA
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Corner A
Clayton Carpenter
#37 2-3-0
Elo 1419
VS
Corner B
Jose Ochoa
#28 2-2-0
Elo 1462
Final result · recorded May 9, 2026
Jose Ochoa
defeated Clayton Carpenter by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Clayton Carpenter 34.7% · Jose Ochoa 65.3%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Clayton Carpenter 52.0% · Jose Ochoa 48.0%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 12
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland Main event · middleweight Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira flyweight Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta heavyweight Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley welterweight King Green vs Jeremy Stephens lightweight Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz middleweight Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov welterweight Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki lightweight Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon lightweight Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio middleweight Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis featherweight Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos middleweight

Notable

Ochoa

Has never been finished — all 2 losses went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

2-3-0 UFC record 2-2-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
-3 Streak +1
30 Age 25
5'6" 168 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
66" 168 cm Reach 67" 170 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1469 Global Elo 1515
1419 Elo rating 1462
Clayton Carpenter — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • 100% of wins by submission
  • 50% of wins finished in round 1
Jose Ochoa — Notable ▼
At a glance

Clayton Carpenter — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 154 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
45% Head
  • Head 45%
  • Body 29%
  • Leg 25%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
74% Distance
  • Distance 74%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 17%

Jose Ochoa — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 259 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
46% Head
  • Head 46%
  • Body 30%
  • Leg 24%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 3%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.41
5.16
div avg 3.86
50%
47%
div avg 46%
4.83
2.99
div avg 3.26
46%
59%
div avg 57%
1.33
0.30
div avg 1.56
29%
25%
div avg 38%
50%
66%
div avg 63%
1.33
0.90
div avg 0.81
4
1
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Clayton Carpenter
100% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 2
can finish?
Jose Ochoa
finished 0%
never finished
Jose Ochoa
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Clayton Carpenter
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1512 (Clayton Carpenter) vs 1523 (Jose Ochoa).

Clayton Carpenter red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1512
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Lucas Rocha
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
2.6
−0.6 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1472
1485
Jose Ochoa blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1523
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Cody Durden
Elo 1514 at fight time
Expected wins
1.8
+0.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1500
1499
Corner A recent form
Clayton Carpenter
Corner B recent form
Jose Ochoa
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Clayton Carpenter & Jose Ochoa on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.