HonestElo
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Justin Buchholz

Inactive · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 185 cm
Elo rating
1454 ±32
LCB 1412
Rank
—
—
UFC record
1-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 1 · Dec 0
Streak
-3
Δ90d +29 · Δ1y +29
Last fight
Feb 6, 2010
L by Decision

Elo history

5 fights · tap & drag
Jan 23, 2008 — L vs Matt Wiman Δ-30Jul 5, 2008 — W vs Corey Hill Δ+39Jun 13, 2009 — L vs Terry Etim Δ-30Sep 16, 2009 — L vs Jeremy Stephens Δ-26Feb 6, 2010 — L vs Mac Danzig Δ-27 13851426146715081549 20092010 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":126,"elo":1470,"date":"2008-01-23","opp":"Matt Wiman","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":1,"x":211.6,"y":75.9,"elo":1509,"date":"2008-07-05","opp":"Corey Hill","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":2,"x":603.8,"y":115.2,"elo":1479,"date":"2009-06-13","opp":"Terry Etim","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":3,"x":712.5,"y":149,"elo":1452,"date":"2009-09-16","opp":"Jeremy Stephens","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":4,"x":876,"y":184.1,"elo":1425,"date":"2010-02-06","opp":"Mac Danzig","result":"L","delta":-27}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 6, 2010 Mac Danzig L -27
Sep 16, 2009 Jeremy Stephens L -26
Jun 13, 2009 Terry Etim L -30
Jul 5, 2008 Corey Hill W +39
Jan 23, 2008 Matt Wiman L -30

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.98 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
27% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.49 avg 3.34
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
0% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
33% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.67 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
1 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
1
100% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 1 (100%) 1 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1517
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.3
actual -1 vs expected