HonestElo
← lightweight

Max Holloway

Active #3 lightweight · Orthodox · 180 cm · reach 175 cm
Elo rating
1723 ±39
LCB 1673
Rank
#3
top 2% of division
UFC record
23-9-0
KO 10 · Sub 2 · Dec 10
Streak
-1
Δ90d -17 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Mar 7, 2026
L by Decision

Elo history

32 fights · tap & drag
Feb 4, 2012 — L vs Dustin Poirier Δ-25Jun 1, 2012 — W vs Pat Schilling Δ+28Aug 11, 2012 — W vs Justin Lawrence Δ+36Dec 29, 2012 — W vs Leonard Garcia Δ+21May 25, 2013 — L vs Dennis Bermudez Δ-30Aug 17, 2013 — L vs Conor McGregor Δ-15Jan 4, 2014 — W vs Will Chope Δ+18Apr 26, 2014 — W vs Andre Fili Δ+18Aug 23, 2014 — W vs Clay Collard Δ+16Oct 4, 2014 — W vs Akira Corassani Δ+17Feb 14, 2015 — W vs Cole Miller Δ+16Apr 18, 2015 — W vs Cub Swanson Δ+20Aug 23, 2015 — W vs Charles Oliveira Δ+17Dec 12, 2015 — W vs Jeremy Stephens Δ+13Jun 4, 2016 — W vs Ricardo Lamas Δ+15Dec 10, 2016 — W vs Anthony Pettis Δ+21Jun 3, 2017 — W vs Jose Aldo Δ+26Dec 2, 2017 — W vs Jose Aldo Δ+22Dec 8, 2018 — W vs Brian Ortega Δ+18Apr 13, 2019 — L vs Dustin Poirier Δ-23Jul 27, 2019 — W vs Frankie Edgar Δ+18Dec 14, 2019 — L vs Alexander Volkanovski Δ-24Jul 11, 2020 — L vs Alexander Volkanovski Δ-21Jan 16, 2021 — W vs Calvin Kattar Δ+13Nov 13, 2021 — W vs Yair Rodriguez Δ+14Jul 2, 2022 — L vs Alexander Volkanovski Δ-18Apr 15, 2023 — W vs Arnold Allen Δ+16Aug 26, 2023 — W vs Chan Sung Jung Δ+13Apr 13, 2024 — W vs Justin Gaethje Δ+15Oct 26, 2024 — L vs Ilia Topuria Δ-26Jul 19, 2025 — W vs Dustin Poirier Δ+15Mar 7, 2026 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-17 14351524161317021791 2015201820212024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":212.2,"elo":1475,"date":"2012-02-04","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":1,"x":43.5,"y":195.5,"elo":1503,"date":"2012-06-01","opp":"Pat Schilling","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":55.3,"y":174,"elo":1539,"date":"2012-08-11","opp":"Justin Lawrence","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":3,"x":78.5,"y":161.5,"elo":1560,"date":"2012-12-29","opp":"Leonard Garcia","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":4,"x":102.8,"y":179.4,"elo":1530,"date":"2013-05-25","opp":"Dennis Bermudez","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":5,"x":116.7,"y":188.7,"elo":1515,"date":"2013-08-17","opp":"Conor McGregor","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":6,"x":139.9,"y":178.2,"elo":1532,"date":"2014-01-04","opp":"Will Chope","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":158.5,"y":167.4,"elo":1550,"date":"2014-04-26","opp":"Andre Fili","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":8,"x":178.2,"y":158,"elo":1566,"date":"2014-08-23","opp":"Clay Collard","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":185.1,"y":148.2,"elo":1583,"date":"2014-10-04","opp":"Akira Corassani","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":10,"x":207.2,"y":138.8,"elo":1598,"date":"2015-02-14","opp":"Cole Miller","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":11,"x":217.6,"y":127.2,"elo":1618,"date":"2015-04-18","opp":"Cub Swanson","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":12,"x":238.6,"y":116.8,"elo":1635,"date":"2015-08-23","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":13,"x":257,"y":109.4,"elo":1648,"date":"2015-12-12","opp":"Jeremy Stephens","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":14,"x":286,"y":100.6,"elo":1663,"date":"2016-06-04","opp":"Ricardo Lamas","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":15,"x":317.3,"y":88.4,"elo":1683,"date":"2016-12-10","opp":"Anthony Pettis","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":16,"x":346.3,"y":73.1,"elo":1709,"date":"2017-06-03","opp":"Jose Aldo","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":17,"x":376.4,"y":59.8,"elo":1731,"date":"2017-12-02","opp":"Jose Aldo","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":18,"x":437.8,"y":49.2,"elo":1749,"date":"2018-12-08","opp":"Brian Ortega","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":19,"x":458.7,"y":63,"elo":1726,"date":"2019-04-13","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":20,"x":476.1,"y":52,"elo":1744,"date":"2019-07-27","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":21,"x":499.3,"y":66.1,"elo":1721,"date":"2019-12-14","opp":"Alexander Volkanovski","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":22,"x":534,"y":78.5,"elo":1700,"date":"2020-07-11","opp":"Alexander Volkanovski","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":23,"x":565.3,"y":71,"elo":1712,"date":"2021-01-16","opp":"Calvin Kattar","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":24,"x":615.2,"y":62.7,"elo":1726,"date":"2021-11-13","opp":"Yair Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":25,"x":653.4,"y":73.5,"elo":1708,"date":"2022-07-02","opp":"Alexander Volkanovski","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":26,"x":701,"y":64.2,"elo":1724,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Arnold Allen","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":27,"x":723,"y":56.4,"elo":1737,"date":"2023-08-26","opp":"Chan Sung Jung","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":28,"x":761.2,"y":47.8,"elo":1751,"date":"2024-04-13","opp":"Justin Gaethje","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":29,"x":793.7,"y":63.3,"elo":1725,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Ilia Topuria","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":30,"x":837.7,"y":54.5,"elo":1740,"date":"2025-07-19","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":31,"x":876,"y":64.5,"elo":1723,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 7, 2026 Charles Oliveira L -17
Jul 19, 2025 Dustin Poirier W +15
Oct 26, 2024 Ilia Topuria L -26
Apr 13, 2024 Justin Gaethje W +15
Aug 26, 2023 Chan Sung Jung W +13

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
6.63 avg 3.96
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.43 avg 3.35
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.22 avg 1.65
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
53% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
81% avg 73%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.27 avg 0.53
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
52%
12 / 23
Finish rate
KO
10
43% of wins
SUB
2
9% of wins
DEC
10
43% of wins
KO: 10 (45%) 10 Sub: 2 (9%) 2 Dec: 10 (45%) 10
Finishes by round
13 total
R1
2 15%
R2
2 15%
R3
7 54%
R4
1 8%
R5
1 8%

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1682
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
17.1
actual +6 vs expected