HonestElo
← featherweight

Darren Elkins

Active #21 featherweight · Orthodox · 178 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1592 ±33
LCB 1548
Rank
#21
top 21% of division
UFC record
19-11-0
KO 4 · Sub 3 · Dec 12
Streak
-1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -23
Last fight
Apr 12, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

30 fights · tap & drag
Mar 21, 2010 — W vs Duane Ludwig Δ+36Aug 1, 2010 — L vs Charles Oliveira Δ-37Jun 11, 2011 — W vs Michihiro Omigawa Δ+23Oct 8, 2011 — W vs Zhang Tiequan Δ+30May 26, 2012 — W vs Diego Brandao Δ+28Nov 17, 2012 — W vs Steven Siler Δ+17Mar 16, 2013 — W vs Antonio Carvalho Δ+15Apr 20, 2013 — L vs Chad Mendes Δ-20Aug 28, 2013 — W vs Hatsu Hioki Δ+12Jan 25, 2014 — L vs Jeremy Stephens Δ-18Oct 25, 2014 — W vs Lucas Martins Δ+15Dec 20, 2014 — L vs Hacran Dias Δ-21Oct 24, 2015 — W vs Robert Whiteford Δ+14Mar 5, 2016 — W vs Chas Skelly Δ+16Jul 23, 2016 — W vs Godofredo Pepey Δ+12Mar 4, 2017 — W vs Mirsad Bektic Δ+18Jul 22, 2017 — W vs Dennis Bermudez Δ+14Jan 14, 2018 — W vs Michael Johnson Δ+13Jul 14, 2018 — L vs Alexander Volkanovski Δ-18Nov 17, 2018 — L vs Ricardo Lamas Δ-21Jul 13, 2019 — L vs Ryan Hall Δ-17May 16, 2020 — L vs Nate Landwehr Δ-22Nov 7, 2020 — W vs Eduardo Garagorri Δ+14Jul 24, 2021 — W vs Darrick Minner Δ+15Dec 18, 2021 — L vs Cub Swanson Δ-20Apr 30, 2022 — W vs Tristan Connelly Δ+12Dec 3, 2022 — L vs Jonathan Pearce Δ-16Oct 14, 2023 — W vs TJ Brown Δ+12Oct 19, 2024 — W vs Daniel Pineda Δ+11Apr 12, 2025 — L vs Julian Erosa Δ-23 14601521158316441706 20132016201920222025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":170.1,"elo":1536,"date":"2010-03-21","opp":"Duane Ludwig","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":1,"x":44.6,"y":201.5,"elo":1500,"date":"2010-08-01","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"L","delta":-37},{"i":2,"x":93.2,"y":182.1,"elo":1522,"date":"2011-06-11","opp":"Michihiro Omigawa","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":3,"x":111.7,"y":156.7,"elo":1552,"date":"2011-10-08","opp":"Zhang Tiequan","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":4,"x":147.4,"y":132.7,"elo":1580,"date":"2012-05-26","opp":"Diego Brandao","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":174.5,"y":118.5,"elo":1596,"date":"2012-11-17","opp":"Steven Siler","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":193,"y":105.2,"elo":1612,"date":"2013-03-16","opp":"Antonio Carvalho","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":198.4,"y":122.7,"elo":1591,"date":"2013-04-20","opp":"Chad Mendes","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":8,"x":218.5,"y":112.3,"elo":1603,"date":"2013-08-28","opp":"Hatsu Hioki","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":9,"x":241.8,"y":128.3,"elo":1585,"date":"2014-01-25","opp":"Jeremy Stephens","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":10,"x":284,"y":115,"elo":1600,"date":"2014-10-25","opp":"Lucas Martins","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":11,"x":292.7,"y":133.1,"elo":1579,"date":"2014-12-20","opp":"Hacran Dias","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":12,"x":340.4,"y":121.2,"elo":1593,"date":"2015-10-24","opp":"Robert Whiteford","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":13,"x":361,"y":107.1,"elo":1609,"date":"2016-03-05","opp":"Chas Skelly","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":14,"x":382.7,"y":97.2,"elo":1621,"date":"2016-07-23","opp":"Godofredo Pepey","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":15,"x":417.4,"y":81.8,"elo":1639,"date":"2017-03-04","opp":"Mirsad Bektic","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":16,"x":439.1,"y":69.9,"elo":1653,"date":"2017-07-22","opp":"Dennis Bermudez","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":17,"x":466.3,"y":58.5,"elo":1666,"date":"2018-01-14","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":18,"x":494.4,"y":74.3,"elo":1647,"date":"2018-07-14","opp":"Alexander Volkanovski","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":19,"x":513.9,"y":92.3,"elo":1627,"date":"2018-11-17","opp":"Ricardo Lamas","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":20,"x":550.8,"y":107.1,"elo":1609,"date":"2019-07-13","opp":"Ryan Hall","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":21,"x":598.5,"y":126.2,"elo":1587,"date":"2020-05-16","opp":"Nate Landwehr","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":22,"x":625.6,"y":114.4,"elo":1601,"date":"2020-11-07","opp":"Eduardo Garagorri","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":23,"x":665.7,"y":101.4,"elo":1616,"date":"2021-07-24","opp":"Darrick Minner","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":24,"x":688.4,"y":118.3,"elo":1596,"date":"2021-12-18","opp":"Cub Swanson","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":25,"x":709,"y":108.2,"elo":1608,"date":"2022-04-30","opp":"Tristan Connelly","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":26,"x":742.6,"y":122.2,"elo":1592,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Jonathan Pearce","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":27,"x":791.4,"y":111.6,"elo":1604,"date":"2023-10-14","opp":"TJ Brown","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":28,"x":848.9,"y":102,"elo":1615,"date":"2024-10-19","opp":"Daniel Pineda","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":29,"x":876,"y":122.3,"elo":1592,"date":"2025-04-12","opp":"Julian Erosa","result":"L","delta":-23}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 12, 2025 Julian Erosa L -23
Oct 19, 2024 Daniel Pineda W +11
Oct 14, 2023 TJ Brown W +12
Dec 3, 2022 Jonathan Pearce L -16
Apr 30, 2022 Tristan Connelly W +12

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.13 avg 3.78
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
38% avg 50%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.08 avg 2.97
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 57%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.64 avg 1.35
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
34% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
56% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.99 avg 0.42
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
37%
7 / 19
Finish rate
KO
4
21% of wins
SUB
3
16% of wins
DEC
12
63% of wins
KO: 4 (21%) 4 Sub: 3 (16%) 3 Dec: 12 (63%) 12
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
2 29%
R2
2 29%
R3
3 43%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1517
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
17.3
actual +2 vs expected