HonestElo
← featherweight

Josh Emmett

Active #24 featherweight · Orthodox · 168 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1587 ±39
LCB 1537
Rank
#24
top 24% of division
UFC record
10-7-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 · Dec 6
Streak
-3
Δ90d -19 · Δ1y -55
Last fight
Mar 14, 2026
L by KO

Elo history

17 fights · tap & drag
May 8, 2016 — W vs Jon Tuck Δ+32Dec 17, 2016 — W vs Scott Holtzman Δ+28Apr 8, 2017 — L vs Desmond Green Δ-34Oct 21, 2017 — W vs Felipe Arantes Δ+29Dec 16, 2017 — W vs Ricardo Lamas Δ+41Feb 24, 2018 — L vs Jeremy Stephens Δ-20Mar 30, 2019 — W vs Michael Johnson Δ+18Jul 13, 2019 — W vs Mirsad Bektic Δ+19Jun 20, 2020 — W vs Shane Burgos Δ+16Dec 11, 2021 — W vs Dan Ige Δ+15Jun 18, 2022 — W vs Calvin Kattar Δ+15Feb 11, 2023 — L vs Yair Rodriguez Δ-22Jun 24, 2023 — L vs Ilia Topuria Δ-15Dec 16, 2023 — W vs Bryce Mitchell Δ+19Apr 5, 2025 — L vs Lerone Murphy Δ-15Oct 4, 2025 — L vs Youssef Zalal Δ-21Mar 14, 2026 — L vs Kevin Vallejos Δ-19 14861539159316461700 20182020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":190.6,"elo":1532,"date":"2016-05-08","opp":"Jon Tuck","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":1,"x":76.8,"y":162.8,"elo":1560,"date":"2016-12-17","opp":"Scott Holtzman","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":2,"x":103.3,"y":196.3,"elo":1526,"date":"2017-04-08","opp":"Desmond Green","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":3,"x":149.8,"y":167.8,"elo":1555,"date":"2017-10-21","opp":"Felipe Arantes","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":163,"y":127.1,"elo":1596,"date":"2017-12-16","opp":"Ricardo Lamas","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":5,"x":179.6,"y":146.5,"elo":1576,"date":"2018-02-24","opp":"Jeremy Stephens","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":6,"x":274.1,"y":128.8,"elo":1594,"date":"2019-03-30","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":299,"y":109.7,"elo":1613,"date":"2019-07-13","opp":"Mirsad Bektic","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":8,"x":380.2,"y":94,"elo":1629,"date":"2020-06-20","opp":"Shane Burgos","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":9,"x":507.9,"y":79,"elo":1644,"date":"2021-12-11","opp":"Dan Ige","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":10,"x":552.7,"y":63.7,"elo":1660,"date":"2022-06-18","opp":"Calvin Kattar","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":11,"x":609.1,"y":85.7,"elo":1637,"date":"2023-02-11","opp":"Yair Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":12,"x":640.6,"y":100.4,"elo":1623,"date":"2023-06-24","opp":"Ilia Topuria","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":682,"y":81.1,"elo":1642,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Bryce Mitchell","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":14,"x":794.8,"y":95.8,"elo":1627,"date":"2025-04-05","opp":"Lerone Murphy","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":15,"x":837.9,"y":116.9,"elo":1606,"date":"2025-10-04","opp":"Youssef Zalal","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":16,"x":876,"y":135.5,"elo":1587,"date":"2026-03-14","opp":"Kevin Vallejos","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 14, 2026 Kevin Vallejos L -19
Oct 4, 2025 Youssef Zalal L -21
Apr 5, 2025 Lerone Murphy L -15
Dec 16, 2023 Bryce Mitchell W +19
Jun 24, 2023 Ilia Topuria L -15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.44 avg 3.77
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
36% avg 50%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.24 avg 2.93
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
60% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.00 avg 1.41
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
37% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
44% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.07 avg 0.45
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
4 / 10
Finish rate
KO
4
40% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
6
60% of wins
KO: 4 (40%) 4 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 6 (60%) 6
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
3 75%
R2
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1629
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
8.5
actual +2 vs expected