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✓ Ateba Gautier won · by KO · R2

Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz — Honest Elo matchup

middleweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
May 9, 2026 · Newark, New Jersey, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Ateba Gautier
#17 5-1-0
Elo 1572
VS
Corner B
Ozzy Diaz
#64 1-3-0
Elo 1412
Final result · recorded May 10, 2026
Ateba Gautier
defeated Ozzy Diaz by KO in round 2

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Ateba Gautier 74.2% · Ozzy Diaz 25.8%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Ateba Gautier 62.5% · Ozzy Diaz 37.5%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 12
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland Main event · middleweight TITLE Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira flyweight TITLE Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta heavyweight Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley welterweight King Green vs Jeremy Stephens lightweight Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov welterweight Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki lightweight Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon lightweight Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio middleweight Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis featherweight Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos middleweight Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa flyweight

Notable

Form

Both enter off a loss (Oct 2026 / Sep 2026).

Tale of the tape

5-1-0 UFC record 1-3-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
-1 Streak -2
24 Age 35
6'4" 193 cm Height 6'4" 193 cm
81" 206 cm Reach 79" 201 cm
Switch Stance Orthodox
1607 Global Elo 1452
1572 Elo rating 1412
Ateba Gautier — Notable ▼
At a glance
Ozzy Diaz — Notable ▼
At a glance

Ateba Gautier — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 117 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
74% Head
  • Head 74%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 3%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
85% Distance
  • Distance 85%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 4%

Ozzy Diaz — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 153 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
84% Head
  • Head 84%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 5%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
97% Distance
  • Distance 97%
  • Clinch 3%
  • Ground 0%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.80
5.96
div avg 4.55
36%
52%
div avg 52%
3.35
7.29
div avg 3.30
50%
62%
div avg 54%
0.49
0.00
div avg 1.53
100%
0%
div avg 44%
100%
67%
div avg 75%
0.00
0.00
div avg 0.46
0
1
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Ateba Gautier
80% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 0
can finish?
Ozzy Diaz
finished 100%
3 of 3 losses
Ozzy Diaz
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Ateba Gautier
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Ozzy Diaz has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1549 vs 1502, 0 quality wins to 0.

Ateba Gautier red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1502
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Andrey Pulyaev
Elo 1507 at fight time
Expected wins
3.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1471
1571
Ozzy Diaz blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1549
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Djorden Santos
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
−0.7 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1533
1557
Corner A recent form
Ateba Gautier
Corner B recent form
Ozzy Diaz
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Ateba Gautier & Ozzy Diaz on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.