HonestElo
← welterweight

Islam Makhachev C

Active #1 welterweight · Southpaw · 178 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1828 ±20
LCB 1802
Rank
#1
top 1% of division
UFC record
17-1-0
KO 3 · Sub 8 · Dec 6
Streak
+16
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +14
Last fight
Nov 15, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

18 fights · tap & drag
May 23, 2015 — W vs Leo Kuntz Δ+33Oct 3, 2015 — L vs Adriano Martins Δ-29Sep 17, 2016 — W vs Chris Wade Δ+35Feb 11, 2017 — W vs Nik Lentz Δ+36Jan 20, 2018 — W vs Gleison Tibau Δ+36Jul 28, 2018 — W vs Kajan Johnson Δ+17Apr 20, 2019 — W vs Arman Tsarukyan Δ+10Sep 7, 2019 — W vs Davi Ramos Δ+15Mar 6, 2021 — W vs Drew Dober Δ+15Jul 17, 2021 — W vs Thiago Moises Δ+13Oct 30, 2021 — W vs Dan Hooker Δ+15Feb 26, 2022 — W vs King Green Δ+13Oct 22, 2022 — W vs Charles Oliveira Δ+26Feb 11, 2023 — W vs Alexander Volkanovski Δ+23Oct 21, 2023 — W vs Alexander Volkanovski Δ+24Jun 1, 2024 — W vs Dustin Poirier Δ+19Jan 18, 2025 — W vs Renato Moicano Δ+14Nov 15, 2025 — W vs Jack Della Maddalena Δ+14 14641565166617671868 20172019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":199.7,"elo":1533,"date":"2015-05-23","opp":"Leo Kuntz","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":53.6,"y":215,"elo":1504,"date":"2015-10-03","opp":"Adriano Martins","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":2,"x":131.5,"y":196.7,"elo":1539,"date":"2016-09-17","opp":"Chris Wade","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":3,"x":164.2,"y":177.9,"elo":1575,"date":"2017-02-11","opp":"Nik Lentz","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":4,"x":240.5,"y":159,"elo":1611,"date":"2018-01-20","opp":"Gleison Tibau","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":5,"x":282.6,"y":150,"elo":1628,"date":"2018-07-28","opp":"Kajan Johnson","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":341.7,"y":144.5,"elo":1638,"date":"2019-04-20","opp":"Arman Tsarukyan","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":7,"x":372.9,"y":136.9,"elo":1653,"date":"2019-09-07","opp":"Davi Ramos","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":8,"x":494.4,"y":129.1,"elo":1668,"date":"2021-03-06","opp":"Drew Dober","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":9,"x":524,"y":122.1,"elo":1681,"date":"2021-07-17","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":10,"x":547.3,"y":114.4,"elo":1696,"date":"2021-10-30","opp":"Dan Hooker","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":11,"x":573.8,"y":107.7,"elo":1708,"date":"2022-02-26","opp":"King Green","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":12,"x":626.8,"y":94.2,"elo":1734,"date":"2022-10-22","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":13,"x":651.7,"y":82.4,"elo":1757,"date":"2023-02-11","opp":"Alexander Volkanovski","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":14,"x":707.8,"y":69.6,"elo":1781,"date":"2023-10-21","opp":"Alexander Volkanovski","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":15,"x":757.6,"y":59.7,"elo":1800,"date":"2024-06-01","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":16,"x":809,"y":52.5,"elo":1813,"date":"2025-01-18","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":17,"x":876,"y":45,"elo":1828,"date":"2025-11-15","opp":"Jack Della Maddalena","result":"W","delta":14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 15, 2025 Jack Della Maddalena W +14
Jan 18, 2025 Renato Moicano W +14
Jun 1, 2024 Dustin Poirier W +19
Oct 21, 2023 Alexander Volkanovski W +24
Feb 11, 2023 Alexander Volkanovski W +23

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.16 avg 3.64
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
58% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.28 avg 2.89
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
62% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.73 avg 1.76
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
56% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
91% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.87 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
7 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
65%
11 / 17
Finish rate
KO
3
18% of wins
SUB
8
47% of wins
DEC
6
35% of wins
KO: 3 (18%) 3 Sub: 8 (47%) 8 Dec: 6 (35%) 6
Finishes by round
11 total
R1
6 55%
R2
2 18%
R3
1 9%
R4
1 9%
R5
1 9%

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1727
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
9.7
actual +7 vs expected