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Alan Patrick "Nuguette"

Inactive · age 42 · Southpaw · 5'11" 180 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • UFC veteran since 2013
Elo rating
1493
Global Elo 1540 ±36
Rank
—
—
UFC record
5-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 4
Streak
-3
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y 0
Last fight
May 14, 2022
Loss by KO · R2
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 47m
Avg fight time
11:56
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
1.0
Ground control
42m
Since last fight
4y 1mo

Honest Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Oct 9, 2013 — W vs Garett Whiteley Δ+33Feb 1, 2014 — W vs John Makdessi Δ+30Jun 20, 2015 — L vs Mairbek Taisumov Δ-33Mar 19, 2016 — W vs Damien Brown Δ+26Sep 24, 2016 — W vs Stevie Ray Δ+31Feb 3, 2018 — W vs Damir Hadzovic Δ+12Oct 6, 2018 — L vs Scott Holtzman Δ-22Sep 12, 2020 — L vs King Green Δ-16May 14, 2022 — L vs Michael Johnson Δ-22 1460148015001520154015601580 2015201720192021 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":340.4,"elo":1486,"date":"2013-10-09","opp":"Garett Whiteley","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":116.4,"y":259.3,"elo":1517,"date":"2014-02-01","opp":"John Makdessi","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":232,"y":348.4,"elo":1483,"date":"2015-06-20","opp":"Mairbek Taisumov","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":3,"x":294.6,"y":278,"elo":1510,"date":"2016-03-19","opp":"Damien Brown","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":4,"x":338,"y":195.6,"elo":1540,"date":"2016-09-24","opp":"Stevie Ray","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":5,"x":451.9,"y":162.5,"elo":1553,"date":"2018-02-03","opp":"Damir Hadzovic","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":6,"x":508.1,"y":220.7,"elo":1531,"date":"2018-10-06","opp":"Scott Holtzman","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":7,"x":670.3,"y":264.4,"elo":1515,"date":"2020-09-12","opp":"King Green","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":8,"x":810,"y":322.3,"elo":1493,"date":"2022-05-14","opp":"Michael Johnson","result":"L","delta":-22}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 14, 2022 Michael Johnson L -22
Sep 12, 2020 King Green L -16
Oct 6, 2018 Scott Holtzman L -22
Feb 3, 2018 Damir Hadzovic W +12
Sep 24, 2016 Stevie Ray W +31

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
20%
1 / 5
Finish rate
KO
1
20% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
4
80% of wins
KO: 1 (20%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 4 (80%) 4
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
1 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 199 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
67% Distance
  • Distance 67%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 23%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
75%
of losses by finish
3 of 4 · usually R2
3 KO/TKO 0 Sub 1 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1539
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Stevie Ray
Elo 1582 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.8
+0.2 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 9 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1498

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Alan Patrick on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.