HonestElo
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✓ Joshua Van won · by TKO · R5
flyweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
May 9, 2026 · Newark, New Jersey, USA
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Corner A
Joshua Van C
#2 10-1-0
Elo 1633
VS
Corner B
Tatsuro Taira
#4 8-2-0
Elo 1597
Final result · recorded May 10, 2026
Joshua Van
defeated Tatsuro Taira by TKO in round 5

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Joshua Van 33.3% · Tatsuro Taira 66.7%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Joshua Van 47.8% · Tatsuro Taira 52.2%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 12
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland Main event · middleweight Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta heavyweight Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley welterweight King Green vs Jeremy Stephens lightweight Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz middleweight Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov welterweight Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki lightweight Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon lightweight Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio middleweight Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis featherweight Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos middleweight Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa flyweight

Tale of the tape

10-1-0 UFC record 8-2-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 3
+7 Streak -1
24 Age 26
5'5" 165 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
65" 165 cm Reach 70" 178 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1673 Global Elo 1640
1633 Elo rating 1597
Joshua Van — Notable ▼
At a glance
Tatsuro Taira — Notable ▼
At a glance

Joshua Van — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1230 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
73% Head
  • Head 73%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
87% Distance
  • Distance 87%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 5%

Tatsuro Taira — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 337 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
78% Head
  • Head 78%
  • Body 8%
  • Leg 14%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
54% Distance
  • Distance 54%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 42%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

8.43
2.87
div avg 3.86
57%
54%
div avg 47%
5.82
3.10
div avg 3.24
58%
44%
div avg 56%
0.82
3.57
div avg 1.55
62%
44%
div avg 38%
76%
46%
div avg 64%
0.21
1.28
div avg 0.73
1
8
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Joshua Van
40% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 0
can finish?
Tatsuro Taira
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses
Tatsuro Taira
75% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 3
can finish?
Joshua Van
finished 100%
1 of 1 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1600 (Joshua Van) vs 1608 (Tatsuro Taira).

Joshua Van red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1600
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win
Alexandre Pantoja
Elo 1711 at fight time
Expected wins
6.0
+4.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 11 fights
1411
1664
Notable wins
Alexandre Pantoja 1711 Tatsuro Taira 1664
Tatsuro Taira blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1608
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Brandon Moreno
Elo 1638 at fight time
Expected wins
5.6
+2.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 10 fights
1500
1649
Notable wins
Brandon Moreno 1638

Common opponents

2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    Brandon Royval
    L
    Decision - Unanimous
    Decision - Split
    Jun 28, 2025
    Oct 12, 2024
  • W
    Edgar Chairez
    W
    Decision - Unanimous
    Decision - Unanimous
    Sep 14, 2024
    Jul 8, 2023
Corner A recent form
Joshua Van
Corner B recent form
Tatsuro Taira
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Joshua Van & Tatsuro Taira on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.