HonestElo
← featherweight

Jose Aldo

Active #12 featherweight · Orthodox · 170 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1643 ±42
LCB 1588
Rank
#12
top 11% of division
UFC record
14-9-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 · Dec 10
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -20
Last fight
May 10, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

23 fights · tap & drag
Apr 30, 2011 — W vs Mark Hominick Δ+45Oct 8, 2011 — W vs Kenny Florian Δ+45Jan 14, 2012 — W vs Chad Mendes Δ+37Feb 2, 2013 — W vs Frankie Edgar Δ+38Aug 3, 2013 — W vs Chan Sung Jung Δ+35Feb 1, 2014 — W vs Ricardo Lamas Δ+15Oct 25, 2014 — W vs Chad Mendes Δ+15Dec 12, 2015 — L vs Conor McGregor Δ-26Jul 9, 2016 — W vs Frankie Edgar Δ+20Jun 3, 2017 — L vs Max Holloway Δ-26Dec 2, 2017 — L vs Max Holloway Δ-22Jul 28, 2018 — W vs Jeremy Stephens Δ+14Feb 2, 2019 — W vs Renato Moicano Δ+14May 11, 2019 — L vs Alexander Volkanovski Δ-18Dec 14, 2019 — L vs Marlon Moraes Δ-19Jul 11, 2020 — L vs Petr Yan Δ-23Dec 19, 2020 — W vs Marlon Vera Δ+14Aug 7, 2021 — W vs Pedro Munhoz Δ+14Dec 4, 2021 — W vs Rob Font Δ+15Aug 20, 2022 — L vs Merab Dvalishvili Δ-20May 4, 2024 — W vs Jonathan Martinez Δ+14Oct 5, 2024 — L vs Mario Bautista Δ-19May 10, 2025 — L vs Aiemann Zahabi Δ-20 15051571163817041770 2014201720202023 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":203.9,"elo":1545,"date":"2011-04-30","opp":"Mark Hominick","result":"W","delta":45},{"i":1,"x":50.8,"y":168.1,"elo":1590,"date":"2011-10-08","opp":"Kenny Florian","result":"W","delta":45},{"i":2,"x":67.1,"y":138.5,"elo":1627,"date":"2012-01-14","opp":"Chad Mendes","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":3,"x":131.1,"y":108.3,"elo":1665,"date":"2013-02-02","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":4,"x":161.3,"y":80.7,"elo":1699,"date":"2013-08-03","opp":"Chan Sung Jung","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":5,"x":191.6,"y":68.3,"elo":1715,"date":"2014-02-01","opp":"Ricardo Lamas","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":6,"x":235.8,"y":56.1,"elo":1730,"date":"2014-10-25","opp":"Chad Mendes","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":304.5,"y":76.8,"elo":1704,"date":"2015-12-12","opp":"Conor McGregor","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":8,"x":339.4,"y":61.1,"elo":1724,"date":"2016-07-09","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":9,"x":394.1,"y":81.6,"elo":1698,"date":"2017-06-03","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":10,"x":424.4,"y":99.5,"elo":1676,"date":"2017-12-02","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":11,"x":464,"y":88.3,"elo":1690,"date":"2018-07-28","opp":"Jeremy Stephens","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":12,"x":495.4,"y":76.9,"elo":1704,"date":"2019-02-02","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":13,"x":511.7,"y":91.2,"elo":1686,"date":"2019-05-11","opp":"Alexander Volkanovski","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":14,"x":547.8,"y":106.4,"elo":1667,"date":"2019-12-14","opp":"Marlon Moraes","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":15,"x":582.7,"y":125,"elo":1644,"date":"2020-07-11","opp":"Petr Yan","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":16,"x":609.5,"y":113.4,"elo":1658,"date":"2020-12-19","opp":"Marlon Vera","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":17,"x":647.9,"y":102.2,"elo":1672,"date":"2021-08-07","opp":"Pedro Munhoz","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":18,"x":667.7,"y":90.3,"elo":1687,"date":"2021-12-04","opp":"Rob Font","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":19,"x":710.7,"y":106.1,"elo":1667,"date":"2022-08-20","opp":"Merab Dvalishvili","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":20,"x":814.3,"y":94.5,"elo":1682,"date":"2024-05-04","opp":"Jonathan Martinez","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":21,"x":839.9,"y":109.9,"elo":1663,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Mario Bautista","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":22,"x":876,"y":125.6,"elo":1643,"date":"2025-05-10","opp":"Aiemann Zahabi","result":"L","delta":-20}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 10, 2025 Aiemann Zahabi L -20
Oct 5, 2024 Mario Bautista L -19
May 4, 2024 Jonathan Martinez W +14
Aug 20, 2022 Merab Dvalishvili L -20
Dec 4, 2021 Rob Font W +15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.43 avg 3.77
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
45% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.05 avg 2.93
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
58% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.49 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
92% avg 62%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.15 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
29%
4 / 14
Finish rate
KO
4
29% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
10
71% of wins
KO: 4 (29%) 4 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 10 (71%) 10
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
2 50%
R2
1 25%
R3
R4
1 25%
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1616
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
12.6
actual +1 vs expected