HonestElo
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Cub Swanson

Active #19 featherweight · Orthodox · 173 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1602 ±37
LCB 1554
Rank
#19
top 19% of division
UFC record
15-10-0
KO 7 · Sub 0 · Dec 8
Streak
+1
Δ90d -3 · Δ1y -3
Last fight
Dec 14, 2024
W by KO

Elo history

25 fights · tap & drag
Nov 12, 2011 — L vs Ricardo Lamas Δ-31Jan 28, 2012 — W vs George Roop Δ+33Jun 22, 2012 — W vs Ross Pearson Δ+40Sep 22, 2012 — W vs Charles Oliveira Δ+35Feb 16, 2013 — W vs Dustin Poirier Δ+30Jul 6, 2013 — W vs Dennis Siver Δ+18Jun 28, 2014 — W vs Jeremy Stephens Δ+13Nov 22, 2014 — L vs Frankie Edgar Δ-18Apr 18, 2015 — L vs Max Holloway Δ-20Apr 16, 2016 — W vs Hacran Dias Δ+14Aug 6, 2016 — W vs Tatsuya Kawajiri Δ+13Dec 10, 2016 — W vs Dooho Choi Δ+15Apr 22, 2017 — W vs Artem Lobov Δ+10Dec 9, 2017 — L vs Brian Ortega Δ-19Apr 21, 2018 — L vs Frankie Edgar Δ-14Aug 4, 2018 — L vs Renato Moicano Δ-20May 4, 2019 — L vs Shane Burgos Δ-17Oct 12, 2019 — W vs Kron Gracie Δ+14Dec 12, 2020 — W vs Daniel Pineda Δ+14May 1, 2021 — L vs Giga Chikadze Δ-17Dec 18, 2021 — W vs Darren Elkins Δ+20Oct 15, 2022 — L vs Jonathan Martinez Δ-20Aug 12, 2023 — W vs Hakeem Dawodu Δ+15Jun 29, 2024 — L vs Andre Fili Δ-19Dec 14, 2024 — W vs Billy Quarantillo Δ+17 14291495156116271692 2014201720202023 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":203.7,"elo":1469,"date":"2011-11-12","opp":"Ricardo Lamas","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":1,"x":37.7,"y":177,"elo":1503,"date":"2012-01-28","opp":"George Roop","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":63.7,"y":144.5,"elo":1543,"date":"2012-06-22","opp":"Ross Pearson","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":3,"x":80.1,"y":116.2,"elo":1578,"date":"2012-09-22","opp":"Charles Oliveira","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":4,"x":106.3,"y":92.1,"elo":1608,"date":"2013-02-16","opp":"Dustin Poirier","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":131.3,"y":78,"elo":1625,"date":"2013-07-06","opp":"Dennis Siver","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":194.9,"y":67.2,"elo":1639,"date":"2014-06-28","opp":"Jeremy Stephens","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":7,"x":221.1,"y":81.5,"elo":1621,"date":"2014-11-22","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":8,"x":247.3,"y":97.3,"elo":1601,"date":"2015-04-18","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":9,"x":312.2,"y":86.1,"elo":1615,"date":"2016-04-16","opp":"Hacran Dias","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":10,"x":332.1,"y":76,"elo":1628,"date":"2016-08-06","opp":"Tatsuya Kawajiri","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":11,"x":354.6,"y":64.3,"elo":1642,"date":"2016-12-10","opp":"Dooho Choi","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":12,"x":378.3,"y":56.3,"elo":1652,"date":"2017-04-22","opp":"Artem Lobov","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":13,"x":419.4,"y":71.6,"elo":1633,"date":"2017-12-09","opp":"Brian Ortega","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":14,"x":443.1,"y":82.7,"elo":1619,"date":"2018-04-21","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":15,"x":461.9,"y":98.9,"elo":1599,"date":"2018-08-04","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":16,"x":510.5,"y":112.7,"elo":1582,"date":"2019-05-04","opp":"Shane Burgos","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":17,"x":539.2,"y":101.7,"elo":1596,"date":"2019-10-12","opp":"Kron Gracie","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":18,"x":615.3,"y":90.2,"elo":1610,"date":"2020-12-12","opp":"Daniel Pineda","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":19,"x":640.2,"y":104.3,"elo":1593,"date":"2021-05-01","opp":"Giga Chikadze","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":20,"x":681.4,"y":88.5,"elo":1612,"date":"2021-12-18","opp":"Darren Elkins","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":21,"x":735,"y":104.8,"elo":1592,"date":"2022-10-15","opp":"Jonathan Martinez","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":22,"x":788.7,"y":92.4,"elo":1607,"date":"2023-08-12","opp":"Hakeem Dawodu","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":23,"x":846.1,"y":108.1,"elo":1588,"date":"2024-06-29","opp":"Andre Fili","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":24,"x":876,"y":94.3,"elo":1605,"date":"2024-12-14","opp":"Billy Quarantillo","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 14, 2024 Billy Quarantillo W +17
Jun 29, 2024 Andre Fili L -19
Aug 12, 2023 Hakeem Dawodu W +15
Oct 15, 2022 Jonathan Martinez L -20
Dec 18, 2021 Darren Elkins W +20

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.80 avg 3.72
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
52% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.07 avg 2.93
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.63 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
52% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
73% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.09 avg 0.45
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
47%
7 / 15
Finish rate
KO
7
47% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
8
53% of wins
KO: 7 (47%) 7 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 8 (53%) 8
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
2 29%
R2
3 43%
R3
2 29%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1573
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
13.2
actual +2 vs expected