HonestElo
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✓ Grant Dawson won · by Submission · R3
lightweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
May 9, 2026 · Newark, New Jersey, USA
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Corner A
Grant Dawson
#6 12-2-1
Elo 1642
VS
Corner B
Mateusz Rebecki
#44 4-4-0
Elo 1497
Final result · recorded May 10, 2026
Grant Dawson
defeated Mateusz Rebecki by Submission in round 3

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Grant Dawson 74.2% · Mateusz Rebecki 25.8%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Grant Dawson 66.4% · Mateusz Rebecki 33.6%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 12
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland Main event · middleweight Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira flyweight Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta heavyweight Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley welterweight King Green vs Jeremy Stephens lightweight Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz middleweight Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov welterweight Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon lightweight Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio middleweight Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis featherweight Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos middleweight Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa flyweight

Tale of the tape

12-2-1 UFC record 4-4-0
KO 2 · Sub 5 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 1
+1 Streak -3
32 Age 33
5'10" 178 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
72" 183 cm Reach 66" 168 cm
Switch Stance Southpaw
1689 Global Elo 1546
1642 Elo rating 1497
Grant Dawson — Notable ▼
At a glance
Mateusz Rebecki — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 4 of last 5 fights
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission

Grant Dawson — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 528 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
50% Distance
  • Distance 50%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 40%

Mateusz Rebecki — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 495 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 16%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
80% Distance
  • Distance 80%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 15%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.11
4.94
div avg 4.65
51%
47%
div avg 51%
2.20
4.47
div avg 3.84
45%
55%
div avg 54%
3.62
2.84
div avg 1.84
39%
49%
div avg 38%
70%
53%
div avg 72%
1.24
0.30
div avg 0.62
10
4
div avg 4

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Grant Dawson
58% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 5
can finish?
Mateusz Rebecki
finished 50%
2 of 4 losses
Mateusz Rebecki
50% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Grant Dawson
finished 100%
2 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Mateusz Rebecki has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1601 vs 1573, 0 quality wins to 4.

Grant Dawson red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1573
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
4
of 12 UFC wins
Toughest win
Leonardo Santos
Elo 1666 at fight time
Expected wins
8.9
+3.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 15 fights
1460
1558
Notable wins
Leonardo Santos 1666 Mark Madsen 1616 Diego Ferreira 1611 Damir Ismagulov 1608
Mateusz Rebecki blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1601
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Myktybek Orolbai
Elo 1573 at fight time
Expected wins
3.9
+0.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 8 fights
1500
1676

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    Diego Ferreira
    L
    Decision - Unanimous
    KO/TKO
    Jan 18, 2025
    May 11, 2024
Corner A recent form
Grant Dawson
Corner B recent form
Mateusz Rebecki
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Grant Dawson & Mateusz Rebecki on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.