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lightweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Sep 19, 2026 · Los Angeles, California, USA
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Corner A
Renato Moicano
#9 13-7-0
Elo 1598
VS
Corner B
Brian Ortega
#12 8-5-0
Elo 1590

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Corner A Renato Moicano 50.0%
Corner B Brian Ortega 50.0%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

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Other fights on this card · 11
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja Main event · flyweight Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy lightweight Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi featherweight Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski light heavyweight Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain bantamweight Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz middleweight Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura women's flyweight Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira middleweight Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne heavyweight Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito featherweight Michael Aswell Jr. vs JooSang Yoo featherweight

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Moicano +43 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Ortega

Finishes 88% of wins (3 KO · 4 SUB).

Ortega

8 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Tale of the tape

13-7-0 UFC record 8-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 7 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 4
+1 Streak -2
37 Age 35
5'11" 180 cm Height 5'8" 173 cm
72" 183 cm Reach 69" 175 cm
Orthodox Stance Switch
1642 Global Elo 1641
1598 Elo rating 1590
Renato Moicano — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 69% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2014
Brian Ortega — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 88% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2014

Renato Moicano — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 771 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
73% Head
  • Head 73%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 17%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 3%
  • Ground 14%

Brian Ortega — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 742 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 5%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.10
3.84
div avg 4.53
49%
37%
div avg 51%
3.55
6.38
div avg 3.76
60%
49%
div avg 53%
1.68
0.93
div avg 1.86
40%
25%
div avg 37%
64%
55%
div avg 72%
0.56
0.93
div avg 0.65
3
1
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Renato Moicano
69% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 7
can finish?
Brian Ortega
finished 40%
2 of 5 losses
Brian Ortega
88% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 4
can finish?
Renato Moicano
finished 71%
5 of 7 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1657 (Renato Moicano) vs 1680 (Brian Ortega).

Renato Moicano red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1657
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
3
of 13 UFC wins
Toughest win
Cub Swanson
Elo 1620 at fight time
Expected wins
9.9
+3.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 20 fights
1463
1616
Notable wins
Cub Swanson 1620 Chris Duncan 1616 Benoit Saint Denis 1609
Brian Ortega blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1680
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
4
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Frankie Edgar
Elo 1703 at fight time
Expected wins
6.3
+1.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 14 fights
1476
1715
Notable wins
Frankie Edgar 1703 Yair Rodriguez 1676 Cub Swanson 1652 Chan Sung Jung 1632

Common opponents

2 shared opponents · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • L
    Chan Sung Jung
    W
    KO/TKO · R1
    Decision - Unanimous
    Jun 22, 2019
    Oct 17, 2020
  • W
    Cub Swanson
    W
    Submission · R1
    Submission · R2
    Aug 4, 2018
    Dec 9, 2017
Corner A recent form
Renato Moicano
Corner B recent form
Brian Ortega
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Renato Moicano & Brian Ortega on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.