← Back to event card

Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

11-6-1 UFC record 3-0-0
KO 5 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 0
+1 Streak +3
38 Age 27
6'0" 183 cm Height 6'0" 183 cm
76" 193 cm Reach 73" 185 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1592 Global Elo 1580
1547 Elo rating 1554
Alonzo Menifield — Notable
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 64% of wins by KO or submission
  • 55% of wins finished in round 1
Iwo Baraniewski — Notable
At a glance

Alonzo Menifield — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 573 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
82% Head
  • Head 82%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 10%

Iwo Baraniewski — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 38 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
76% Head
  • Head 76%
  • Body 11%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
53% Ground
  • Distance 32%
  • Clinch 16%
  • Ground 53%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.83
11.29
div avg 4.76
53%
57%
div avg 51%
3.90
8.91
div avg 4.12
51%
54%
div avg 52%
0.50
0.00
div avg 1.35
36%
0%
div avg 39%
80%
100%
div avg 71%
0.20
0.00
div avg 0.58
3
2
div avg 2

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Alonzo Menifield
64% finish rate
KO 5 · Sub 2
can finish?
Iwo Baraniewski
finished
no losses
Iwo Baraniewski
100% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 0
can finish?
Alonzo Menifield
finished 67%
4 of 6 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Alonzo Menifield has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1557 vs 1458, 0 quality wins to 0.

Alonzo Menifield red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1557
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win
Ed Herman
Elo 1567 at fight time
Expected wins
9.3
+1.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 18 fights
1500
1561
Iwo Baraniewski blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1458
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Ibo Aslan
Elo 1486 at fight time
Expected wins
1.8
+1.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1486
1469
Corner A recent form
Alonzo Menifield
Corner B recent form
Iwo Baraniewski
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Alonzo Menifield & Iwo Baraniewski on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.