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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Shahbazyan

Finishes 78% of wins (6 KO · 1 SUB; 67% of wins end in round 1).

Ferreira

Finishes 83% of wins (3 KO · 2 SUB; 67% of wins end in round 1).

Form

Both enter off a loss (Jun 2026 / Jun 2026).

Tale of the tape

9-6-0 UFC record 6-4-0
KO 6 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 2
-1 Streak -2
28 Age 33
6'2" 188 cm Height 5'10" 178 cm
74" 188 cm Reach 72" 183 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1584 Global Elo 1549
1538 Elo rating 1507
Edmen Shahbazyan — Notable
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 78% of wins by KO or submission
  • 67% of wins finished in round 1
Brunno Ferreira — Notable
At a glance
  • 83% of wins by KO or submission
  • 67% of wins finished in round 1

Edmen Shahbazyan — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 493 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
72% Head
  • Head 72%
  • Body 21%
  • Leg 7%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
71% Distance
  • Distance 71%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 16%

Brunno Ferreira — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 229 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
70% Head
  • Head 70%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 13%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
92% Distance
  • Distance 92%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 4%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.93
3.12
div avg 4.30
49%
48%
div avg 51%
3.85
3.70
div avg 3.32
50%
52%
div avg 54%
1.43
1.02
div avg 1.77
36%
23%
div avg 48%
67%
48%
div avg 71%
0.36
0.61
div avg 0.54
3
1
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Edmen Shahbazyan
78% finish rate
KO 6 · Sub 1
can finish?
Brunno Ferreira
finished 75%
3 of 4 losses
Brunno Ferreira
83% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 2
can finish?
Edmen Shahbazyan
finished 67%
4 of 6 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1586 (Edmen Shahbazyan) vs 1566 (Brunno Ferreira).

Edmen Shahbazyan red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1586
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
3
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win
Andre Petroski
Elo 1626 at fight time
Expected wins
7.8
+1.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 15 fights
1495
1686
Brunno Ferreira blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1566
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win
Gregory Rodrigues
Elo 1598 at fight time
Expected wins
5.0
+1.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 10 fights
1598
1621
Corner A recent form
Edmen Shahbazyan
Corner B recent form
Brunno Ferreira
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Edmen Shahbazyan & Brunno Ferreira on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.