HonestElo
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Brian Ortega

Active #2 catchweight · Switch · 173 cm · reach 175 cm
Elo rating
1641 ±38
LCB 1591
Rank
#2
top 4% of division
UFC record
8-5-0
KO 3 · Sub 4 · Dec 1
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -14
Last fight
Aug 23, 2025
L by Decision

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Jun 6, 2015 — W vs Thiago Tavares Δ+40Jan 2, 2016 — W vs Diego Brandao Δ+38Jun 4, 2016 — W vs Clay Guida Δ+31Jul 29, 2017 — W vs Renato Moicano Δ+32Dec 9, 2017 — W vs Cub Swanson Δ+34Mar 3, 2018 — W vs Frankie Edgar Δ+20Dec 8, 2018 — L vs Max Holloway Δ-18Oct 17, 2020 — W vs Chan Sung Jung Δ+14Sep 25, 2021 — L vs Alexander Volkanovski Δ-18Jul 16, 2022 — L vs Yair Rodriguez Δ-19Feb 24, 2024 — W vs Yair Rodriguez Δ+20Sep 14, 2024 — L vs Diego Lopes Δ-18Aug 23, 2025 — L vs Aljamain Sterling Δ-14 15001558161716751734 20172019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":199.7,"elo":1540,"date":"2015-06-06","opp":"Thiago Tavares","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":1,"x":72,"y":165.6,"elo":1578,"date":"2016-01-02","opp":"Diego Brandao","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":2,"x":107.1,"y":138,"elo":1608,"date":"2016-06-04","opp":"Clay Guida","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":203,"y":109.4,"elo":1640,"date":"2017-07-29","opp":"Renato Moicano","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":4,"x":233.4,"y":78.3,"elo":1674,"date":"2017-12-09","opp":"Cub Swanson","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":252.6,"y":60.3,"elo":1694,"date":"2018-03-03","opp":"Frankie Edgar","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":316.5,"y":76.4,"elo":1676,"date":"2018-12-08","opp":"Max Holloway","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":7,"x":471.6,"y":63.7,"elo":1690,"date":"2020-10-17","opp":"Chan Sung Jung","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":549.9,"y":80,"elo":1672,"date":"2021-09-25","opp":"Alexander Volkanovski","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":9,"x":617,"y":97.5,"elo":1653,"date":"2022-07-16","opp":"Yair Rodriguez","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":10,"x":751.3,"y":79.8,"elo":1672,"date":"2024-02-24","opp":"Yair Rodriguez","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":11,"x":797.7,"y":96,"elo":1654,"date":"2024-09-14","opp":"Diego Lopes","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":108.6,"elo":1641,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Aljamain Sterling","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 23, 2025 Aljamain Sterling L -14
Sep 14, 2024 Diego Lopes L -18
Feb 24, 2024 Yair Rodriguez W +20
Jul 16, 2022 Yair Rodriguez L -19
Sep 25, 2021 Alexander Volkanovski L -18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.60
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
37%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
5.99
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
49%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.80
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
24%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
53%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.73
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
88%
7 / 8
Finish rate
KO
3
38% of wins
SUB
4
50% of wins
DEC
1
13% of wins
KO: 3 (38%) 3 Sub: 4 (50%) 4 Dec: 1 (13%) 1
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
1 14%
R2
1 14%
R3
5 71%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1678
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.3
actual +2 vs expected