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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Moura

Has never been finished — all 2 losses went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

6-2-0 UFC record 3-2-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
+2 Streak -1
28 Age 32
5'6" 168 cm Height 5'6" 168 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 67" 170 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1586 Global Elo 1528
1543 Elo rating 1477
Casey O'Neill — Notable
At a glance
Eduarda Moura — Notable
At a glance

Casey O'Neill — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 677 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
77% Head
  • Head 77%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 9%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
81% Distance
  • Distance 81%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 14%

Eduarda Moura — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 177 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
86% Head
  • Head 86%
  • Body 6%
  • Leg 7%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
63% Distance
  • Distance 63%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 32%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

7.89
2.63
div avg 4.05
52%
38%
div avg 46%
5.53
2.65
div avg 3.57
58%
59%
div avg 55%
1.40
3.57
div avg 1.47
35%
33%
div avg 39%
70%
80%
div avg 64%
0.70
0.22
div avg 0.43
4
6
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Casey O'Neill
67% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 1
can finish?
Eduarda Moura
finished 0%
never finished
Eduarda Moura
33% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Casey O'Neill
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1526 (Casey O'Neill) vs 1512 (Eduarda Moura).

Casey O'Neill red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1526
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 6 UFC wins
Toughest win
Luana Santos
Elo 1585 at fight time
Expected wins
4.5
+1.5 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 8 fights
1474
1536
Eduarda Moura blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1512
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Lauren Murphy
Elo 1544 at fight time
Expected wins
2.6
+0.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1464
1547
Corner A recent form
Casey O'Neill
Corner B recent form
Eduarda Moura
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Casey O'Neill & Eduarda Moura on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.