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✓ Casey O'Neill won · by Submission · R1

Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura — Honest Elo matchup

women's flyweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Sep 19, 2026 · Los Angeles, California, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Casey O'Neill
#11 7-2-0
Elo 1556
VS
Corner B
Eduarda Moura
#24 3-3-0
Elo 1464
Final result · recorded Sep 19, 2026
Casey O'Neill
defeated Eduarda Moura by Submission in round 1

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Casey O'Neill 63.8% · Eduarda Moura 36.2%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Casey O'Neill 58.3% · Eduarda Moura 41.7%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 10
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja Main event · flyweight TITLE Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy lightweight Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi featherweight Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski light heavyweight Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain bantamweight Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz middleweight Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira middleweight Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne heavyweight Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito featherweight Michael Aswell Jr. vs JooSang Yoo featherweight

Notable

O'Neill

Finishes 71% of wins (3 KO · 2 SUB).

Tale of the tape

7-2-0 UFC record 3-3-0
KO 3 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
+3 Streak -2
29 Age 32
5'6" 168 cm Height 5'6" 168 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 67" 170 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1602 Global Elo 1513
1556 Elo rating 1464
Casey O'Neill — Notable ▼
At a glance
Eduarda Moura — Notable ▼
At a glance

Casey O'Neill — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 678 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
77% Head
  • Head 77%
  • Body 14%
  • Leg 10%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
81% Distance
  • Distance 81%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 14%

Eduarda Moura — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 180 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
87% Head
  • Head 87%
  • Body 6%
  • Leg 7%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
62% Distance
  • Distance 62%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 33%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

7.60
2.55
div avg 4.16
52%
38%
div avg 45%
5.36
2.54
div avg 3.71
58%
59%
div avg 56%
1.35
3.40
div avg 1.37
35%
33%
div avg 38%
70%
80%
div avg 65%
0.84
0.42
div avg 0.39
4
7
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Casey O'Neill
71% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 2
can finish?
Eduarda Moura
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses
Eduarda Moura
33% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Casey O'Neill
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1538 (Casey O'Neill) vs 1536 (Eduarda Moura).

Casey O'Neill red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1538
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Luana Santos
Elo 1585 at fight time
Expected wins
5.1
+1.9 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 9 fights
1474
1528
Eduarda Moura blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1536
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Lauren Murphy
Elo 1544 at fight time
Expected wins
3.0
on schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1464
1586
Corner A recent form
Casey O'Neill
Corner B recent form
Eduarda Moura
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Casey O'Neill & Eduarda Moura on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.